Neelam C. Poudyal

Developing sustainable tourism through adaptive resource management: a case study of Machu Picchu, Peru

Machu Picchu, Peru, is recognized as a top international travel destination. Pressure from the approximately 900,000 tourists who annually visit the ancient Inca city threatens the ecological integrity, physical substance and cultural authenticity of the World Heritage Site and surrounding area, including the Inca Trail. Multiple organizations and agencies currently involved in the management of Machu Picchu have distinct agendas for the conservation and development of the city, and conflicts regarding public access, economic growth and cultural preservation are rampant. Attempts to establish carrying capacities have failed, with proposed daily visitor levels ranging from 800 to 4000. This paper explores the complex issues surrounding tourism at Machu Picchu and presents a potential solution: an adaptive management approach based on the UN World Tourism Organizations (UNWTO) sustainable tourism framework. This integrative strategy accounts for multiple perspectives and synthesizes disparate goals embraced by diverse stakeholders, including the Peruvian government, international conservation organizations, foreign tourists, private tour operators, regional authorities and indigenous communities. The focus on Machu Picchu as an adaptive management case study site outlines key steps leading to implementation, offering planning and policy implications for sustainability initiatives at numerous developing-world tourism destinations facing similar political and socio-economic challenges.

Locating spatial variation in the association between wildland fire risk and social vulnerability across six southern states

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify “hot spots” or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.

Forecasting Housing Prices under Different Market Segmentation Assumptions

Three types of market segmentation strategies are available to estimate hedonic housing price models—i.e. no segmentation, segmentation by using statistical clustering methods and segmentation by using a priori information. This research tests the hypothesis of Tiebout theory that individual residential decision-making is determined by equilibrium provision of local public goods in accord with the tastes and preferences of residents, thereby sorting their housing locations into optimal sub-markets. Forecasting accuracies of eight sub-market segmentation strategies and two forecast-combining methods are examined by using housing sales data from Knox County, Tennessee, USA. The results provide empirical support for Tiebout theory of optimal housing sub-market location in that boundaries drawn using a priori information from local government jurisdictions, school districts and expert opinions are more closely aligned with the equilibrium provision of local public goods than boundaries drawn by statistical clustering methods. The advantage of forecast-combining is also demonstrated.

Demand for Resident Hunting in the Southeastern United States

We modeled hunting demand among resident hunters in the Southeastern United States. Our model revealed that future hunting demand will likely decline in this region. Population growth in the region will increase demand, but structural change in the regions demography (e.g., “browning” and “aging”), along with declining forestland access will decrease hunting demand. The results suggested that programs encouraging younger and non-white populations to participate in hunting could mitigate a forecast hunting decline in the region. Increasing license fees, while politically risky, should increase agency revenues due to price-inelastic demand. The model developed here can be applied to understand and project hunting demand in the Southeast and adapted to other regions.

Global citizenry, educational travel and sustainable tourism: evidence from Australia and New Zealand.

Educational travel, a neglected area of study in sustainable tourism, has grown substantially over the last 20 years in part as a response to institutional missions to promote international education, but also as a result of the USAs national security concerns to nurture a global citizenry. Considerable future growth is predicted following the bipartisan Lincoln Commission report and under the pending new legislation in the USA. Our pre-test/post-test study of almost 5% (n = 651 US students) of the entire short-term, US educational travel market to Australia and New Zealand between 2008 and 2009 revealed significant differences between the cohorts of the two programs, both of which focused on sustainable development. The Australia program not only produced significant increases in global citizenship (as measured by scores on consumer behaviors, support for environmental policies, and environmental citizenship) beyond that of the New Zealand program, but any initial differences between the programs were erased following participation. Reasons for the differences in attitude change are discussed. Analysis also noted key differences between students with different political orientations, but no gender differences. Implications for managing educational travel, marketing Australias and New Zealands tourism, sustainable tourism planning, and theory advancements are discussed.

The Impact of an Urban Growth Boundary on Land Development in Knox County, Tennessee: A Comparison of Two-Stage Probit Least Squares and Multilayer Neural Network Models

The impact of an urban growth boundary (UGB) on land development in Knox County, TN is estimated via two-stage probit and neural-network models. The insignificance of UGB variable in the two-stage probit model and more visible development patterns in the western part of Knoxville and the neighboring town of Farragut during the post-UGB period in both models suggest that the UGB has not curtailed urban sprawl. Although the network model is found to be a viable alternative to more conventional discrete choice approach for improving the predictability of land development, it is at the cost of evaluating marginal effects.

Spatial structure of agricultural production in China

The spatial structure of county-level agricultural production in China in 1999 is analysed. A convenient simple method that corrects for both spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the input–output relationships using spatial lag models and an allowance for the response coefficients to vary across relatively homogeneous regions are described. Empirical results suggest an abundant labour supply and extensive use of agricultural machinery reflected in its declining price. Although mechanization is relatively new, machines have replaced fertilizer in agricultural production in the North, Northeast, Northwest and East regions while irrigation and fertilizer are the significantly important inputs in the Central and Southwest regions.

Understanding the Characteristics of Non-industrial Private Forest Landowners Who Harvest Trees

Abstract Achieving regional and national goals of renewable energy production will depend on sufficient supply of biomass from private forests, the majority of which are controlled by non-industrial private forest landowners (NIPF). Considering the diversity in management objectives and changing demographic dynamics in this ownership group, it is important to understand the characteristics of landowners that may supply woody biomass. This study developed linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and classification tree (CT) models to examine the characteristics and motivation of such NIPF landowners. Thirteen combinations of CT variable selection and split-point selection models were used in conjunction with LDA. The “importance of income” from a woody biomass harvest was the most important factor influencing NIPF landowners’ decisions in supplying woody biomass. Another significant interrelated variable was “farmer or non-farmer” forestland ownership, which was also related with “years of residency”, “availability of a multi-management plan,” and “ownership of multi-tracts of land.” CT models provided higher-level explanatory information when compared with LDA models. Study findings provide useful insight for land managers, wood procurement managers, and policy-makers in identifying the landowner groups with interest in biomass supply, and in understanding the factors influencing their decisions.

When Drivers and Terrapins Collide: Assessing Stakeholder Attitudes Toward Wildlife Management on the Jekyll Island Causeway

Roads are a pervasive fixture on most landscapes and frequently impact wildlife. Management of road effects on wildlife should consider the attitudes and areas of contention among various stakeholders using the road. To inform future management of road impacts on the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), a species of conservation concern, we surveyed stakeholder groups on Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA to measure overall attitudes and value orientations relating to terrapin management and to evaluate the acceptability and potential for conflict among user groups regarding specific management alternatives. A majority of respondents supported the protection of terrapins, although support varied by group membership and value orientation. Specific actions that did not impact speed limits or road aesthetics were most acceptable, but substantial conflict existed for most strategies. We intend to use these results to improve communication and buy-in of stakeholders as we develop management alternatives for the diamondback terrapin on Jekyll Island.

Potential effects of climate on downhill skiing and snowboarding demand and value at U.S

Annually, 23 million recreationists participate in downhill skiing on over 180,000 acres of skiable land in the U.S. National Forest system, making it the second most popular outdoor activity in the system. While the emerging literature on climate science reveals changing climatic conditions in ski areas, the extent of climate change impact on the demand for and economic value of downhill skiing is unknown. By combining trip data collected from on-site surveys of skiers in national forests across the nation with climatic data collected through nearby weather stations, this study developed an aggregated travel cost model to estimate the net economic benefit of downhill skiing and snowboarding, and the projected impact of climate change on the demand and value. Per person per trip net economic benefit of downhill skiing was estimated to be in the range of