Donald R. Pool

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km3) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Enhancing drought resilience with conjunctive use and managed aquifer recharge in California and Arizona

Projected longer-term droughts and intense floods underscore the need to store more water to manage climate extremes. Here we show how depleted aquifers have been used to store water by substituting surface water use for groundwater pumpage (conjunctive use, CU) or recharging groundwater with surface water (managed aquifer recharge, MAR). Unique multi-decadal monitoring from thousands of wells and regional modeling datasets for the California Central Valley and central Arizona were used to assess CU and MAR. In addition to natural reservoir capacity related to deep water tables, historical groundwater depletion further expanded aquifer storage by ~44 km3 in the Central Valley and by ~100 km3 in Arizona, similar to or exceeding current surface reservoir capacity by up to three times. Local river water and imported surface water, transported through 100s of km of canals, is substituted for groundwater (≤15 km3 yr−1, CU) or is used to recharge groundwater (MAR, ≤1.5 km3 yr−1) during wet years shifting to mostly groundwater pumpage during droughts. In the Central Valley, CU and MAR locally reversed historically declining water-level trends, which contrasts with simulated net regional groundwater depletion. In Arizona, CU and MAR also reversed historically declining groundwater level trends in active management areas. These rising trends contrast with current declining trends in irrigated areas that lack access to surface water to support CU or MAR. Use of depleted aquifers as reservoirs could expand with winter flood irrigation or capturing flood discharges to the Pacific (0–1.6 km3 yr−1, 2000–2014) with additional infrastructure in California. Because flexibility and expanded portfolio options translate to resilience, CU and MAR enhance drought resilience through multi-year storage, complementing shorter term surface reservoir storage, and facilitating water markets.

Inference of lithologic distributions in an alluvial aquifer using airborne transient electromagnetic surveys

An airborne transient electromagnetic TEM survey was completedintheUpperSanPedroBasininsoutheasternArizona to map resistivity distributions within the alluvial aquifer. This investigation evaluated the utility of 1D vertical resistivity models of theTEM data to infer lithologic distributions in an alluvial aquifer. Comparisons of the resistivity values and layers in the 1D resistivity models of airborne TEM data to 1D resistivity models of groundTEM data, borehole resistivity logs, and lithologic descriptions in drill logs indicated that the airborne TEM identified thick conductive fine-grained sediments that result in semiconfinedgroundwaterconditions.One-dimensionalmodels of ground-based TEM surveys and subsurface lithology at three sites were used to determine starting models and constraints to invert airborne TEM data using a constrained Marquardt-style underparameterized method. A maximum structural resolution of six layers underlain by a half-space was determined from the resistivity structure of the 1D models of the ground TEM data. The 1D resistivity models of the airborne TEM data compared well with the control data to depths of approximately 100 m in areas of thick conductive silt and clay and to depths of 200 m in areasofresistivesandandgravel.Comparisonofa3Dinterpolation of the 1D resistivity models to drill logs indicated resistive mean of 65 ohm-mcoarse-grained sediments along basin margins and conductive mean of 8 ohm-m fine-grained sediments atthebasincenter.Extentsofhydrologicallysignificantthicksilt and clay were well mapped by the 1D resistivity models of airborneTEMdata.Areasofuncertainlithologyremainbelowconductivefine-grainedsedimentswherethe1Dresistivitystructure is not resolved: in areas where multiple lithologies have similar resistivityvaluesandinareasofhighsalinity.

Human effects on the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, central Arizona, 1910–2005 and 2005–2110, using a regional groundwater flow model

Water budgets were developed for the Verde Valley of central Arizona in order to evaluate the degree to which human stresses have affected the hydrologic system and might affect it in the future. The Verde Valley is a portion of central Arizona wherein concerns have been raised about water availability, particularly perennial base flow of the Verde River. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was used to generate the water budgets and was run in several configurations for the 1910–2005 and 2005–2110 time periods. The resultant water budgets were subtracted from one another in order to quantify the relative changes that were attributable solely to human stresses; human stresses included groundwater withdrawals and incidental and artificial recharge but did not include, for example, human effects on the global climate. Three hypothetical and varied conditions of human stresses were developed and applied to the model for the 2005–2110 period. On the basis of this analysis, human stresses during 1910–2005 were found to have already affected the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, and human stresses will continue to affect the hydrologic system during 2005–2110. Riparian evapotranspiration decreased and underflow into the Verde Valley increased because of human stresses, and net groundwater discharge to the Verde River in the Verde Valley decreased for the 1910–2005 model runs. The model also showed that base flow at the upstream end of the study area, as of 2005, was about 4,900 acre-feet per year less than it would have been in the absence of human stresses. At the downstream end of the Verde Valley, base flow had been reduced by about 10,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2005 because of human stresses. For the 2005–2110 period, the model showed that base flow at the downstream end of the Verde Valley may decrease by an additional 5,400 to 8,600 acre-feet per year because of past, ongoing, and hypothetical future human stresses. The process known as capture (or streamflow depletion caused by the pumping of groundwater) was the reason for these human-stress-induced changes in water-budget components.

The Effect of modeled recharge distribution on simulated groundwater availability and capture

Simulating groundwater flow in basin-fill aquifers of the semiarid southwestern United States commonly requires decisions about how to distribute aquifer recharge. Precipitation can recharge basin-fill aquifers by direct infiltration and transport through faults and fractures in the high-elevation areas, by flowing overland through high-elevation areas to infiltrate at basin-fill margins along mountain fronts, by flowing overland to infiltrate along ephemeral channels that often traverse basins in the area, or by some combination of these processes. The importance of accurately simulating recharge distributions is a current topic of discussion among hydrologists and water managers in the region, but no comparative study has been performed to analyze the effects of different recharge distributions on groundwater simulations. This study investigates the importance of the distribution of aquifer recharge in simulating regional groundwater flow in basin-fill aquifers by calibrating a groundwater-flow model to four different recharge distributions, all with the same total amount of recharge. Similarities are seen in results from steady-state models for optimized hydraulic conductivity values, fit of simulated to observed hydraulic heads, and composite scaled sensitivities of conductivity parameter zones. Transient simulations with hypothetical storage properties and pumping rates produce similar capture rates and storage change results, but differences are noted in the rate of drawdown at some well locations owing to the differences in optimized hydraulic conductivity. Depending on whether the purpose of the groundwater model is to simulate changes in groundwater levels or changes in storage and capture, the distribution of aquifer recharge may or may not be of primary importance.

Effects of past and future groundwater development on the hydrologic system of Verde Valley, Arizona

The Verde River, in central Arizona’s Verde Valley, is one of the State’s largest perennial streams, having year-round flow that is fed by groundwater. Water is diverted from the Verde River and other perennial streams at more than 60 locations within the Verde Valley, primarily for irrigation of residential and cultivated fields. Verde Valley municipalities such as Camp Verde, Clarkdale, Cottonwood, and Sedona also pump groundwater to meet the needs of a growing population. Groundwater pumping has the potential to reduce streamflow in the rivers and streams that are hydrologically connected to the groundwater system. Groundwater that seeps into the stream channel, known as base flow, is one component of streamflow potentially affected by groundwater pumping. Because of this connection, questions have been raised about the effects of groundwater pumping on Verde Valley streams and rivers, particularly on the Verde River, which provides wildlife habitat and recreational opportunities. The Verde River Basin Partnership, a group of Federal, State, local, and other C in central Arizona’s Verde Valley must manage limited water supplies in the face of rapidly growing populations. Developing groundwater resources to meet human needs has raised questions about the effects of groundwater withdrawals by pumping on the area’s rivers and streams, particularly the Verde River. U.S. Geological Survey hydrologists used a regional groundwater flow model to simulate the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow in the Verde River. The study found that streamflow in the Verde River between 1910 and 2005 had been reduced as the result of streamflow depletion by groundwater pumping, also known as capture. Additionally, using three hypothetical scenarios for a period from 2005 to 2110, the studys findings suggest that streamflow reductions will continue and may increase in the future.