Donald Scavia

Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

CALCULATION AND USE OF SELECTIVITY COEFFICIENTS OF FEEDING: ZOOPLANKTON GRAZING *

Vanderploeg, H.A. and Scavia, D., 1979. Calculation and use of selectivity coefficients of feeding: zooplankton grazing. Ecol. Modelling, 7: 135--149. A straightforward method of calculating selectivity coefficients (Wii) of predation from raw data, mortality rates of prey, filtering rates, feeding rates and electivity indices is derived. Results from a comparison of selectivity coefficients for the copepod Diaptomus oregonensis grazing under a number of experimental conditions suggest that Wijs for sizeselective feeding are invariant, a conclusion also supported by the leaky-sieve model. Recommendations are made on how to use Wijs in linear and nonlinear feeding constructs for zooplankton and other animals.

Recent changes in primary production and phytoplankton in the offshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan

ABSTRACT Phytoplankton abundance, composition, and productivity were monitored on a bi-weekly basis from March/ April through November/December at two offshore stations in southeastern Lake Michigan in 1983–1987, 1995– 1998 and 2007–2008 (exception 1983–1984 which were sampled from May to August). During the spring isothermal mixing period, surface-mixed layer (SML) chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass (carbon) and water column primary productivity decreased substantially in 2007–2008 as compared to 1995–1998 (66%, 87%, and 70% decrease, respectively). Smaller or no decreases were noted between 1983–1987 and 1995–1998 (chlorophyll a 23% decrease, phytoplankton biomass 5% increase, and production 22% decrease). Phytoplankton composition also changed during the spring isothermal mixing period in 2007–2008 as compared to 1983–1987 and 1995–1998; all phytoplankton groups with the exception of cyanobacteria and chlorophytes exhibited dramatic reductions in 2007–2008. The pronounced changes in phytoplankton properties during spring mixing in 2007–2008 were attributed to the filtering activities of the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis). During mid- and late thermal stratification periods, SML phytoplankton chlorophyll a and phytoplankton carbon and water column primary production exhibited only one significant change across all decades (mid-stratification production in 2007–2008 as compared to 1995–1998 and 1983–1987). Phytoplankton compositional changes in the SML also were limited during thermal stratification. The size of the deep chlorophyll layer (DCL) in 2007–2008 was similar to or smaller than those in 1983–1987 and 1995–1998. However, phytoplankton composition in the DCL changed as net diatoms constituted < 5% of total phytoplankton in the 2007–2008 DCL but over 50% in 1983–1987 and 1995–1998.

Microscale patchiness of nutrients in plankton communities.

Autoradiography was used to identify the presence of nutrient patches produced by zooplankton. Algal cells which encounter patches of phosphorus-33 released by swimming animals accumulate more label than cells that do not enter the patches. Differential labeling of algae does not occur when turbulence in the fluid is increased by stirring. Nutrient patchiness at the scale of millimeters or less in nature probably influences the course of competition and coexistence among the phytoplankton.

Dynamics of Lake Michigan Phytoplankton: Mechanisms Controlling Epilimnetic Communities

Lake Michigan epilimnetic algal and particulate organic carbon sedimentation rates, determined from moored and floating sediment traps, and algal loss rates due to crustacean zooplankton grazing, determined from manipulation experiments with natural assemblages, were estimated during 1983 and 1984 field seasons. Sedimentation was the most important algal loss in spring when colonial diatoms and calanoid copepods dominated the plankton. Grazing was the most important loss during summer when phytoflagellates and Daphnia spp. dominated. Comparisons between algal community production and loss due to sedimentation and grazing suggest that natural mortality may be significant, but it does not dominate control. An hypothesis is offered for overall control of phytoplankton dynamics in Lake Michigan.

Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Advice from three models

Summer hypoxia in the bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico has received considerable scientific and policy attention because of potential ecological and economic impacts from this very large zone of low oxygen and because of the implications for management within the massive Mississippi River watershed. An assessment of its causes and consequences concluded that the almost 3-fold increase in nitrogen load to the Gulf is the primary external driver stimulating the increase in hypoxia since the middle of the last century. Results from three very different models are compared to reach the consensus that large-sclae hypoxia likely did not start in the Gulf of Mexico until the mid-1970s and that the 30% nitrogen load reduction called for in an Action Plant to reduce hypoxia, agreed to by a federal, state, and tribal task force, may not be sufficient to reach the plan’s goal. Caution is also raised for setting resource management goals without considering the long-term consequences of climate variability and change.

Incidental oligotrophication of North American Great Lakes.

Phytoplankton production is an important factor in determining both ecosystem stability and the provision of ecosystem goods and services. The expansive and economically important North American Great Lakes are subjected to multiple stressors and understanding their responses to those stresses is important for understanding system-wide ecological controls. Here we show gradual increases in spring silica concentration (an indicator of decreasing growth of the dominant diatoms) in all basins of Lakes Michigan and Huron (USA and Canadian waters) between 1983 and 2008. These changes indicate the lakes have undergone gradual oligotrophication coincident with and anticipated by nutrient management implementation. Slow declines in seasonal drawdown of silica (proxy for seasonal phytoplankton production) also occurred, until recent years, when lake-wide responses were punctuated by abrupt decreases, putting them in the range of oligotrophic Lake Superior. The timing of these dramatic production drops is coincident with expansion of populations of invasive dreissenid mussels, particularly quagga mussels, in each basin. The combined effect of nutrient mitigation and invasive species expansion demonstrates the challenges facing large-scale ecosystems and suggest the need for new management regimes for large ecosystems.

An ecological model of Lake Ontario

Abstract An ecological model of the epilimnion, hypolimnion and sediment of Lake Ontario is described. The model is based on realistic process equations posed by experimentalists over the past several decades and it simulates observations made of several phytoplankton and zooplankton groups; components of the phosphorus, nitrogen, silicon and carbon cycles; dissolved oxygen; and particulate sediment and pore water dynamics during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL). Model output is aggregated into a carbon flow diagram to illustrate the importance of detritus and herbivorous zooplankton in the ecology of Lake Ontario. The model serves as a synthesis tool for analysis of the large ecosystem.

Forecasting Gulf’s hypoxia: The next 50 years?

This review discusses the use of hypoxia models in synthesizing the knowledge about the causes of Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, predicting the probable consequences of management actions, and building a consensus about the management of hypoxia. It also offers suggestions for future efforts related to simulating and forecasting Gulf hypoxia. The existing hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico range from simple regression models to complex three-dimensional simulation models, and they capture very different aspects of the physics, chemistry, and biology of this region. Several of these models were successfully calibrated to observations relevant for their process formulations and spatial-temporal scales. Available model results are compared to reach the consensus that large-scale hypoxia probably did not begin in the Gulf of Mexico until the mid 1970s, and that the 30% nitrogen load reduction that is called for by the Action Plan may not be sufficient to achieve its goal. The present models results suggest that a 40–45% reduction in riverine nitrogen load may be necessary to achieve the desired reduction in the areal extent of hypoxia. These model results underscore the importance of setting this goal as a running average because of significant interannual variability. Caution is raised for setting resource management goals without considering the long-term consequences of climate variability and change.