Dong-Joon Lim

Applying Technology Forecasting to New Product Development Target Setting of LCD Panels

This chapter illustrates the Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) process on Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) performance characteristics from 1997 to 2012. The objective of this study is to forecast future state-of-the-arts (SOAs) specifications as well as to diagnose past technological advancement of the LCD industry. Appropriate characteristics were determined from a group of LCD technologists. Data was gathered from public databases and outlying data points were cross-referenced as a validity check. The TFDEA process is defined and its application to the dataset is described in detail. The results not only provide information on how LCD industry has evolved but also provide an insight on future NPD targets.

Technology forecasting using DEA in the presence of infeasibility

As a predictive application of data envelopment analysis (DEA), technology forecasting using DEA (TFDEA) measures the rate of frontier shift by which the arrival of future technologies can be estimated. However, it is well known that DEA and therefore TFDEA may suffer from the issue of infeasible super-efficiency especially under the condition of variable returns to scale. This study develops an extended TFDEA model based on the modified super-efficiency model proposed in the literature, which has the benefit of yielding radial super-efficiency scores equivalent to those obtained from the original super-efficiency model when feasibility is present. The previously published application of liquid crystal displays (LCD) is revisited to illustrate the use of the new model. The results show that the proposed approach makes a reasonable forecast for formerly infeasible targets as well as a consistent forecast for feasible targets.

Technometrics Study Using DEA on Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

The Toyota Prius was first introduced in 1997 and since then over 150 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been brought to the automobile market around the world. This was spurred by a major interest in the future of vehicles using ‘alternative fuel’ for addressing environmental and fuel dependency concerns. This study evaluates and compares the technological advancement observed in different HEV market segments over the past 15 years. The results indicate that the introduction of a wide range of midsize HEVs is posing a threat to the two-seaters and compact HEV segments while an SUV segment shows a fast adoption with a significant performance improvement. The rates of change for each segment are also provided to give insights into the estimation of the future performance levels for new product development target setting purposes.