Dundar F. Kocaoglu

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to build a strategic framework for technology roadmapping

The development of a new concept called the Technology Development Envelope (TDE) is presented in this paper. The TDE is developed to transform the technology roadmapping approach to a level in which it is dynamic, flexible, and operationalizable. This new approach provides an effective way to help organizations to overcome the challenge of keeping a roadmap alive. The paper emphasizes how the AHP is applied as a part of the TDE framework.

A sensitivity analysis algorithm for hierarchical decision models

In this paper, a comprehensive algorithm is developed to analyze the sensitivity of hierarchical decision models (HDM), including the analytic hierarchy process and its variants, to single and multiple changes in the local contribution matrices at any level of the decision hierarchy. The algorithm is applicable to all HDM that use an additive function to derive the overall contribution vector. It is independent of pairwise comparison scales, judgment quantification techniques and group opinion combining methods. The allowable range/region of perturbations, contribution tolerance, operating point sensitivity coefficient, total sensitivity coefficient and the most critical decision element at a certain level are identified in the HDM SA algorithm. An example is given to demonstrate the application of the algorithm and show that HDM SA can reveal information more significant and useful than simply knowing the rank order of the decision alternatives. 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Strategic Technology Planning Framework: A Case of Taiwan's Semiconductor Foundry Industry

The increasingly important role that technologies play in todays business success is well known. To ensure proper selection and development of the key technologies, a deliberate technology plan is needed. In this paper, a strategic technology planning framework is proposed. A hierarchical decision model and its sensitivity analysis are presented as two major steps of the framework to provide effective technology assessment and to generate technology scenarios. The hierarchical model links an organizations competitive goals and strategies in evaluating the technology alternativespsila overall contributions to business success; the sensitivity analysis helps to forecast and implement possible future changes in the economic environment, industry policies, and organization strategies. With the proposed framework, organizations can start to implement their technology plans synoptically and follow up with incremental adaptations as necessary. A case study on Taiwans semiconductor foundry industry is presented to demonstrate the model in detail.

How Do Engineering Managers Evaluate Technologies for Acquisition? A Review of the Electronics Industry

Abstract: This article presents technology evaluation and acquisition practices in the U.S. electronics manufacturing industry. Through these results a process of technology evaluation and acquisition for engineering managers is explained. The results are acquired through a survey of the U.S. electronics manufacturing industry. An engineering manager can use this article to develop a technology evaluation and acquisition strategy based on the goals of his/her company.

Educational trends in engineering and technology management (ETM)

As the engineering and technology management (ETM) field continues to grow, Portland State Universitys Department of Engineering and Technology Management is conducting a world-wide research study on education and research in this field. It is a follow-up to previous studies in 1977, 1981, and 1984, 1990 and 1994. The objective is to develop a resource guide for ETM by analyzing growth patterns in ETM education, and determining the characteristics and strategic directions of the educational and research components of the field. Approximately 3500 individuals have been contacted in more than 1200 academic institutions, and responses have been received from 148 academic institutions up to now. An additional 121 ETM programs have also been identified, but their responses have not been received yet. This paper presents a summary of the findings of the study.

An analytical approach to building a technology development envelope (TDE) for roadmapping of emerging technologies: a case study of emerging electronic cooling technologies for computer servers

This paper proposes a systematic approach to help technology managers to strategically identify and select emerging technologies in which to invest in order to achieve technological competitiveness in their new product development. The combination of Delphi method and hierarchal decision model is used in building a technology development envelope (TDE) - a curve representing a series of technologies with maximum impact on companys competitiveness over time. The result of TDE can be used as strategic inputs in the companys technology roadmapping process. A specific case study of emerging electronic cooling technologies for computer servers is introduced for demonstrating the model development processes in this paper.This paper proposes a systematic approach to help technology managers to strategically identify and select emerging technologies in which to invest in order to achieve technological competitiveness in their new product development. The combination of Delphi method and hierarchal decision model is used in building a technology development envelope (TDE) - a curve representing a series of technologies with maximum impact on companys competitiveness over time. The result of TDE can be used as strategic inputs in the companys technology roadmapping process. A specific case study of emerging electronic cooling technologies for computer servers is introduced for demonstrating the model development processes in this paper.

Analysis of the Engineering and Technology Management (ETM) Educational Programs

This paper presents an analysis of 142 universities offering degree granting programs in engineering and technology management (ETM) worldwide. The data gathered in a study conducted by Portland State Universitys Department of Engineering and Technology Management in 2003-2004 are used for identifying the similarities and differences among ETM programs based on the academic unit in which they are offered. This paper is a follow-up to previous papers in 1977, 1981, 1984, 1990, 1994 and 2005. Program characteristics such as the number of students, the courses offered, the degrees granted, the faculty, the research areas, geographic location, funding, faculty, and teaching methods are analyzed

Patients were more consistent in randomized trial at prioritizing childbirth preferences using graphic-numeric than verbal formats

OBJECTIVE We developed an evidence-based decision aid to help women with a prior cesarean to prioritize their childbirth preferences related to a future birth. Because there was uncertainty about which scale format would assist the patients in being most consistent in prioritizing preferences in a multiattribute decision model, we compared a graphic-numeric scale with a text-anchored scale. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Ninety-six postnatal women with a prior cesarean were randomized to use 1 of 2 preference scale formats in a computerized childbirth decision aid. We measured the level of inconsistency (intransitivity) when patients prioritized their childbirth preferences and clarity of values before and after using the decision aid. RESULTS When the trade-offs involved risk, women were more consistent when using graphic-numeric than text-anchored formats (P=0.015). They prioritized safety to their baby as 4 times more important than any other decision factor including safety to self. Both groups reduced unclear childbirth values over time (P<0.001). Women who over-used the extreme ends of the scale when evaluating risk were more likely to be inconsistent (P<0.001). CONCLUSION Patients were more consistent in making trade-offs involving risk using graphic-numeric formats than text-anchored formats to measure patient preferences.

Exploring the role of technology evaluation in the competitiveness of US electronics manufacturing companies

This paper presents the technology evaluation process in the US electronics manufacturing industry. Eleven major groups of evaluation attributes were identified: Flexibility and Efficiency, Strategic Attributes, Manufacturing Floor Requirements, Product Development, Tactical Costs, Strategic Costs, Competitiveness, Operational Social Concerns, Strategic Social Concerns, Uniqueness, and Industry Trends. They utilise three major groups of evaluation methodologies: Analytic Tools, Financial Tools, and Modelling Tools. Two major impacts resulting from the technology acquisitions have been identified in this study. The resulting impacts are: Organisational and Operational Competitiveness, Market and New Product Development Competitiveness.

Bibliometrics and Social Network Analysis of the Nanotechnology Field

This paper presents bibliometrics analysis as a way to determine the key authors contributing to the nanotechnology field. Web of science data base on the 1992-2006 time frame is used for that purpose. Statistics such as the authors with highest number of publications, countries, making highest level of contribution to the field are obtained from the bibliometrics analysis. Concepts from social network analysis are used to determine the inter-relationships among lead authors and co-authors. The key players in the nanotechnology field are identified and the nature and intensity of collaboration among them are described.