Doris A. Behrens

Why local air pollution is more than daily peaks: modelling policies in a city in order to avoid premature deaths

We use a predator–prey representation of an urban system to analyse how policy interventions can prevent the adverse effects of air pollution on people’s health. The number of residents is treated as prey variable, and particulate matter that consists of particles with a diameter of up to 10 micrometres (PM10) as predator variable. This representation allows integration of population trends and the effects of environmental interventions on the average level of PM10 concentration (which establishes a baseline for the potential health burden for residents). For the case of Graz, Austria, we illustrate the insights generated regarding the interdependency of market-based and technological pollution controls, and propose an indicator that assesses the cost of delayed interventions by counting additional premature deaths caused by polluted environments.

Handling the Complexity of Predator-Prey Systems: Managerial Decision Making in Urban Economic Development and Sustainable Harvesting

In this paper we deal with complex systems and how to handle them. We focus on a well-known class of dynamical systems, namely predator-prey models, firstly by applying this type of model to urban economic development and secondly by testing models in an experimental setting in order to ascertain how successful human decision makers are in managing such a system. Regarding urban economic development, we illustrate that residential density and air pollution can be understood in terms of a predator-prey model and show how pollution control affects the level of the long-run equilibrium and the transition path towards it. We do this to support the understanding of how urban economic development works today and how it can be managed by decision makers via different interventions to improve the quality of living in urban areas. Regarding the task of handling predator-prey systems, we analyse the results of an experimental study in which participants take the role of a decision maker who seeks to maximise revenues from simultaneously harvesting a prey and a predator species while avoiding their overexploitation. We find that participants fall significantly shorter of the optimal strategy when the price assigned to the predator species is very high, compared to the price assigned to the prey species, in contrast to the case where the price difference is smaller. We offer several explanations for this observation that shed light on the human capability to handle predator-prey systems in general.

Teilzeitarbeit – Familienbedingte Erwerbsentscheidung mit Folgewirkung?

Dieses Kapitel setzt sich kritisch mit der Frage auseinander, inwiefern Teilzeitbeschaftigung eine geeignete Vereinbarkeitsstrategie darstellt. Uber die Analyse der von den Erwerbstatigen selbst angegebenen Grunde fur ihre Teilzeitbeschaftigung werden auch die Stimmen derer, die diese Wahl getroffen haben, einbezogen. Schlussfolgerungen zu den kurz- und langfristigen Konsequenzen dieser Beschaftigungsform werden von den Autorinnen insbesondere basierend auf der Analyse verschiedener Gender Pay Gaps, d. h. Einkommensunterschieden zwischen den Geschlechtern, gezogen. Der Gender Pension Gap bildet den „Preis der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Karriere“ fur das Individuum besonders deutlich ab.

Resümee – Ein vorsichtig optimistischer Ausblick

Die Lekture der voran gehenden Kapitel mag zunachst bei all denjenigen, die sich sowohl im Rahmen einer beruflichen Karriere als auch innerhalb ihrer privaten Lebenssphare verwirklichen wollen, keine allzu rosigen Zukunftserwartungen aufkommen lassen. Das abschliesende Kapitel dieses Buches legt in kurzen Zugen dar, warum ein hoffnungsvoller Blick in die Zukunft dennoch angebracht erscheint.

Einleitung: Familie – Beruf – Karriere

Berufliche Karriere und familiare Betreuungspflichten unter einen Hut zu bringen ist eine der grosen Herausforderung unserer Zeit – und das nicht nur fur unmittelbar Betroffene, sondern auch fur Gesellschaft und Wirtschaftspolitik. Dass Mutter und Vater kleiner Kinder wie auch Personen, die pflegebedurftige Angehorige betreuen, mittlerweile uberwiegend erwerbstatig sind, verweist auf die Existenz von Rahmenbedingungen fur eine einigermasen erfolgreiche Umsetzung der „Vereinbarkeit“ von Familie und Beruf, also der Ausubung eines Jobs. Dass Familie aber auch mit „Karriere“ im Sinne einer (finanziell attraktiven) beruflichen Weiterentwicklung vereinbar ist, belegt dieser Sachverhalt jedoch nicht.

Modelling for the proposed roll-out of the ‘111’ service in Wales: a case study

NHS Direct Wales provides a single point of access where members of the public can telephone and seek medical support and/or advice. The service is provided for all the Health Boards in Wales by a single virtual call centre run from a main location in Swansea with 2 satellite locations. Patients in Wales can also access a local General Practitioner service during the evenings and at weekends, by phoning their Out of Hours service. The introduction of a ‘111’ service is intended to combine these two operations on a pan-Wales basis using the existing NHS Direct Wales call centre and staff, with the existing Health Board Out of Hours ‘hubs’. The merger of the two services is intended to improve the overall performance of both services. This paper focuses on the planned introduction of ‘111’ in Cwm Taf and Hywel Dda University Health Boards. The purpose of the case study was to support the merger of the two telephony systems from both an organisational and service delivery perspective, by developing a Discrete Event Simulation to model the impact on service levels and staffing. In particular, to examine the percentage increase / decrease in the staffing requirements needed under partial or full integration of the two services. The results from the scenario analysis highlight that extra staffing resources would be required in certain groups (nurses and call handlers) whilst savings could be achieved in others, provided that there wasn’t an increase in call volume after implementation of the new service.

Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model

This paper analyzes the impact of both non-systematic and systematic forecasting errors on the coordination of distributed investment decisions. The forecasts of concern pertain to the expected cash outlay necessary to launch and operate an investment project, to the expected cash flows generated by the project’s operation, and to the self-assessment of whether or not the abilities expected to be needed for operation coincide with one’s own. Systematic forecasting errors manifested by systematically over- or underestimating these predicted project indicators are interpreted as being produced by overconfidence. Utilizing a multi-agent simulation approach, we show that within a hierarchical business organization with distributed authorities for decision making, in some cases being overconfident can mitigate the negative effect of erroneous forecasting compared to being non-systematically wrong.