Doug Creighton

Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems for Load Forecasting: A Comparative Study

Accurate short term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision-making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with additional degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models precisely approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks and traditional type-1 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) FLSs.

Construction of Optimal Prediction Intervals for Load Forecasting Problems

Short-term load forecasting is fundamental for the reliable and efficient operation of power systems. Despite its importance, accurate prediction of loads is problematic and far remote. Often uncertainties significantly degrade performance of load forecasting models. Besides, there is no index available indicating reliability of predicted values. The objective of this study is to construct prediction intervals for future loads instead of forecasting their exact values. The delta technique is applied for constructing prediction intervals for outcomes of neural network models. Some statistical measures are developed for quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of prediction intervals. According to these measures, a new cost function is designed for shortening length of prediction intervals without compromising their coverage probability. Simulated annealing is used for minimization of this cost function and adjustment of neural network parameters. Demonstrated results clearly show that the proposed methods for constructing prediction interval outperforms the traditional delta technique. Besides, it yields prediction intervals that are practically more reliable and useful than exact point predictions.

Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Power Generation Forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Load Forecasting and Neural Networks: A Prediction Interval-Based Perspective

Successfully determining competitive optimal schedules for electricity generation intimately hinges on the forecasts of loads. The nonstationarity and high volatility of loads make their accurate prediction somewhat problematic. Presence of uncertainty in data also significantly degrades accuracy of point predictions produced by deterministic load forecasting models. Therefore, operation planning utilizing these predictions will be unreliable. This paper aims at developing prediction intervals rather than producing exact point prediction. Prediction intervals are theatrically more reliable and practical than predicted values. The delta and Bayesian techniques for constructing prediction intervals for forecasted loads are implemented here. To objectively and comprehensively assess quality of constructed prediction intervals, a new index based on length and coverage probability of prediction intervals is developed. In experiments with real data, and through calculation of global statistics, it is shown that neural network point prediction performance is unreliable. In contrast, prediction intervals developed using the delta and Bayesian techniques are satisfactorily narrow, with a high coverage probability.

Simulation-based Input Loading Condition Optimisation of Airport Baggage Handling Systems

Scheduling check-in station operations are a challenging problem within airport systems. Prior to determining check-in resource schedules, an important step is to estimate the Baggage Handling System (BHS) operating capacity under non-stationary conditions. This ensures that check-in stations are not overloaded with bags, which would adversely affect the system and cause cascade stops and blockages. Cascading blockages can potentially lead to a poor level of service and in worst scenario a customer may depart without their bags. This paper presents an empirical study of a multiobjective problem within a BHS system. The goal is to estimate near optimal input operating conditions, such that no blockages occurs at check-in stations, while minimising the baggage travel time and maximising the throughput performance measures. We provide a practical hybrid simulation and binary search technique to determine a near optimal input throughput operating condition. The algorithm generates capacity constraint information that may be used by a scheduler to plan check-in operations based on flight arrival schedules.

Discrete Event Simulation Enabled High Level Emulation of a Distribution Centre

Emulation facilitates the testing of control systems through the use of a simulation model. Typically emulation has focused on low level control, to ensure that resources within a system are commissioned correctly. Higher level control that deals with complex issues such as throughput, in-system time and stacking, has not received as much attention. In this paper, a higher level agent-based emulation framework was proposed. Then an emulation model for a distribution centre is described that can test distribution centre level algorithms directly. This methodology also allows playback of real world operations, making it an ideal tool to analyse problems with performance of commissioned systems.

Estimating performance indexes of a baggage handling system using metamodels

In this study, we develop some deterministic metamodels to quickly and precisely predict the future of a technically complex system. The underlying system is essentially a stochastic, discrete event simulation model of a big baggage handling system. The highly detailed simulation model of this is used for conducting some experiments and logging data which are then used for training artificial neural network metamodels. Demonstrated results show that the developed metamodels are well able to predict different performance measures related to the travel time of bags within this system. In contrast to the simulation models which are computationally expensive and expertise extensive to be developed, run, and maintained, the artificial neural network metamodels could serve as real time decision aiding tools which are considerably fast, precise, simple to use, and reliable.

Quantifying a Systems Map: Network Analysis of a Childhood Obesity Causal Loop Diagram

Causal loop diagrams developed by groups capture a shared understanding of complex problems and provide a visual tool to guide interventions. This paper explores the application of network analytic methods as a new way to gain quantitative insight into the structure of an obesity causal loop diagram to inform intervention design. Identification of the structural features of causal loop diagrams is likely to provide new insights into the emergent properties of complex systems and analysing central drivers has the potential to identify leverage points. The results found the structure of the obesity causal loop diagram to resemble commonly observed empirical networks known for efficient spread of information. Known drivers of obesity were found to be the most central variables along with others unique to obesity prevention in the community. While causal loop diagrams are often specific to single communities, the analytic methods provide means to contrast and compare multiple causal loop diagrams for complex problems.

Target coverage in camera networks for manufacturing workplaces

In this paper, we investigate the camera network placement problem for target coverage in manufacturing workplaces. The problem is formulated to find the minimum number of cameras of different types and their best configurations to maximise the coverage of the monitored workplace such that the given set of target points of interest are each k-covered with a predefined minimum spatial resolution. Since the problem is NP-complete, and even NP-hard to approximate, a novel method based on Simulated Annealing is presented to solve the optimisation problem. A new neighbourhood generation function is proposed to handle the discrete nature of the problem. The visual coverage is modelled using realistic and coherent assumptions of camera intrinsic and extrinsic parameters making it suitable for many real world camera based applications. Task-specific quality of coverage measure is proposed to assist selecting the best among the set of camera network placements with equal coverage. A 3D CAD of the monitored space is used to examine physical occlusions of target points. The results show the accuracy, efficiency and scalability of the presented solution method; which can be applied effectively in the design of practical camera networks.

Interpreting and modeling baggage handling system as a System of Systems

The topic of Systems of Systems has been one of the most challenging areas in science and engineering due to its multidisciplinary scope and inherent complexity. Despite all attempts carried out so far in both academia and industry, real world applications are far remote. The purpose of this paper is to modify and adopt a recently developed modeling paradigm for System of Systems and then employ it to model a generic Baggage Handling System of an airport complex. In a top-down design approach, we start modeling process by definition of some modeling goals that guide us in selection of some High Level Attributes. Then Functional Attributes are defined which act as ties between High Level Attributes (the first level of abstraction) and low level metrics/measurements. Since the most challenging issues in developing models for System of Systems are identification and representation of dependencies amongst constituent entities, a machine learning technique is adopted for addressing these issues.