Douglas Gollin

Getting Income Shares Right

Many widely used economic models implicitly assume that income shares should be identical across time and space. Although time‐series data from industrial countries appear consistent with this notion, cross‐section data generally appear to contradict the assumption. A commonly used calculation suggests that labor shares of national income vary from about .05 to about .80 in international cross‐section data. This paper suggests that the usual approach underestimates labor income in small firms. Several adjustments for calculating labor shares are identified and compared. They all yield labor shares for most countries in the range of .65–.80.

The Role of Agriculture in Development

A longstanding question in economics is why some countries are so much richer than others. Today, for example, income per capita in the worlds richest countries is roughly thirty-five times greater than it is in the worlds poorest countries. Recent work (e.g., Robert E. Lucas 2001, and Rachel Ngai 1999) argues that the proximate cause of this disparity is that todays poor countries began the process of industrialization much later and that this process is slow. In this paper we argue that a model of structural transformation provides a useful theory of both why industrialization occurs at different dates, and why it proceeds slowly. A key implication of this model is that growth in agricultural productivity is central to development, a message that also appears prominently in the traditional development literature. (See, e.g., Peter Timmer (1986)).

Genetic Resources, International Organizations, and Improvement in Rice Varieties*

Improvement in varieties has helped spur enormous gains in rice productivity over the past several decades. Improved cultivars have been developed using genetic resources from the two cultivated species of rice (Oryza sativa and Oryza glaberrima) and from a few of the approximately 20 wild species of rice. These cultivars were obtained by shuffling and mixing the available pool of rice genes, known as germplasm. In this article we investigate to what extent specific international organizations and programs have spurred improvements in rice varieties. In addition, we assign value to an international collection of rice germplasm based on its contribution to improvement and productivity growth of rice varieties. For many centuries, improvement of rice varieties occurred slowly as the result of natural selection and seed-saving practices by farmers. Since the second half of the nineteenth century, however, new varieties have been created by scientists working at agricultural experiment stations, and over the past 45 years the pace of improvement in rice varieties has dramatically increased. Since 1960, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), located in the Philippines, has played a key role in worldwide efforts to develop improved varieties of rice. The institute has a number of programs to facilitate rice genetic improvement. The institute’s own plant-breeding program (IRPB) produces improved cultivars, both in the form of ‘‘varieties’’ that are ready for use in farmers’ fields and in the form of ‘‘advanced lines’’ suited for use as parent material in national plant-breeding programs. The International Rice Research Institute maintains an international collection of rice genetic resources (IRGC) designed to preserve

Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth

In most poor countries, large majorities of the population live in rural areas and earn their livelihoods primarily from agriculture. Many rural people in the developing world are poor, and conversely, most of the worlds poor people inhabit rural areas. Agriculture also accounts for a significant fraction of the economic activity in the developing world, with some 25% of value added in poor countries coming from this sector. The sheer size of the agricultural sector implies that changes affecting agriculture have large aggregate effects. Thus, it seems reasonable that agricultural productivity growth should have significant effects on macro variables, including economic growth. But these effects can be complicated. The large size of the agricultural sector does not necessarily imply that it must be a leading sector for economic growth. In fact, agriculture in most developing countries has very low productivity relative to the rest of the economy. Expanding a low-productivity sector might not be unambiguously good for growth. Moreover, there are issues of reverse causation. Economies that experience growth in aggregate output could be the beneficiaries of good institutions or good fortune that also helps the agricultural sector. Thus, even after 50 years of research on agricultural development, there is abundant evidence for correlations between agricultural productivity increases and economic growth but little definitive evidence for a causal connection. This chapter reviews theoretical arguments and empirical evidence for the hypothesis that agricultural productivity improvements lead to economic growth in developing countries. For countries with large interior populations and limited access to international markets, agricultural development is essential for economic growth. For other countries, the importance of agriculture-led growth will depend on the relative feasibility and cost of importing food.

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

BACKGROUND One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. METHODS For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. FINDINGS The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. INTERPRETATION The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. FUNDING Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.

Searching an Ex Situ Collection of Wheat Genetic Resources

A theoretical model is developed and applied to the search for disease and pest resistance in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources, employing actual data on frequency distributions, disease losses, and search costs. Experiments developed from case studies clarify several misperceptions about the value of gene banks and their utilization by breeders. The observation that wheat breeders “use” gene banks rarely does not imply that marginal accessions have low value. High costs of transferring genes with conventional breeding techniques mean that it may be efficient to store certain categories of genetic resources (such as landraces) “unused” for many years. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

Animal genetic resource trade flows: economic assessment.

Abstract Throughout human history, livestock producers have relied on a vibrant international exchange of genetic resources to achieve improvements in the quality and productivity of their animals. In recent years, however, some observers have argued that changes in the legal, technological, and economic environment now imply that international exchanges of animal genetic resources (AnGR) systematically benefit rich countries at the expense of poor countries. It is argued that international flows of AnGR are displacing the indigenous animal genetic resources of developing countries, and also that the genetic wealth of the developing world is being expropriated by rich countries. In reaction, there have been growing calls for limitations and/or barriers to the exchange of animal genetic resources. These discussions, however, seem to be based on limited information about the magnitude and direction of current trade flows in AnGR. This paper offers an analysis of AnGR trade flows from 1990 to 2005. The paper draws on national-level data from 150 countries that reported information to the United Nations Statistics Division. Three major trade categories were evaluated: live cattle and pigs for breeding, and cattle semen. Over the period studied, Europe and North America were the primary exporters of genetic resources for the species evaluated. OECD countries accounted for 98.7, 92.5, and 95% of cattle semen, live cattle, and swine exports in 2005, respectively. In evaluating the direction of trade between developed (North) and developing (South) countries, North–North trade had the largest magnitude, followed by North–South, South–South, and South–North. The data do not support the notion that Southern genetic resources are being used on a large scale in the North. We believe that importation from South to North is limited by the vast discrepancies in production efficiency and production systems between countries in the North and South. Given the low volume of South–North exchange, it seems doubtful that sufficient revenues could be acquired through a “benefit-sharing mechanism” to have any substantial impact on in situ or ex situ conservation efforts, or to generate benefits for poor livestock keepers in developing countries. We question whether global agreements or restrictions on trade will achieve the desired goal of conserving rare breeds and threatened genetic resources. We also doubt whether these agreements will succeed in improving the well-being of the poor. We suggest that resources instead be urgently employed for conservation and that more direct measures should be taken to aid poor farmers, ranchers, and herders in their efforts to conserve genetic resources.

Valuing animal genetic resources: lessons from plant genetic resources

Abstract A growing body of theoretical and empirical studies has examined issues relating to the valuation, utilization, and management of plant genetic resources (PGRs). This paper attempts to summarize relevant lessons from this literature for animal genetic resources. Conceptually and methodologically, there are strong similarities between plant and animal genetic resources. However, the literature on PGRs makes it clear that most of the important policy questions require empirical information—about costs of collection and storage; about the “uniqueness” of desirable traits; about the technologies for in situ and ex situ conservation, etc. In these respects, there are big differences between plant and animal genetic resources. Improving the empirical understanding of animal genetic resource conservation should be a focus of future research.

Contributions of National Agricultural Research Systems to Crop Productivity

This chapter describes the impact of national agricultural research systems on the unfolding of the Green Revolution in four regions: Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Although international institutions contributed much of the research that led to the Green Revolution, national programs also proved important in the development and diffusion of modern varieties. This chapter documents the Green Revolutions that occurred in 11 food crops - wheat, rice, maize, barley, sorghum, millets, lentils, groundnuts, beans, cassava and potatoes. The chapter traces the overall role of national institutions and the growing importance of national agricultural research systems in the developing world. It also discusses the interaction of National Agricultural Research Systems and International Agricultural Research Centers, which have largely played complementary roles. Finally, it discusses the political economy of support for national agricultural research.

Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease

How will global climate change affect the prevalence of tropical diseases? In general, warmer temperatures will expand the areas in which these diseases are endemic. However, if households can take actions to protect themselves from disease—such as purchasing bednets or insecticidal sprays—then economic factors may greatly mitigate the effects of climate change. These actions are costly, however, and particularly in poor countries, many households face borrowing constraints. A model of disease transmission combining the households objectives and constraints shows that a temperature increase of 3°C will induce modest changes in disease prevalence and output. These effects can be mitigated by improvements in the efficacy of disease prevention.