Douglas L. Welch

The MACHO Project: Microlensing Results from 5.7 Years of Large Magellanic Cloud Observations

We report on our search for microlensing toward the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Analysis of 5.7 yr of photometry on 11.9 million stars in the LMC reveals 13-17 microlensing events. A detailed treatment of our detection efficiency shows that this is significantly more than the ~2-4 events expected from lensing by known stellar populations. The timescales () of the events range from 34 to 230 days. We estimate the microlensing optical depth toward the LMC from events with 2 < < 400 days to be τ = 1.2 × 10-7, with an additional 20% to 30% of systematic error. The spatial distribution of events is mildly inconsistent with LMC/LMC disk self-lensing, but is consistent with an extended lens distribution such as a Milky Way or LMC halo. Interpreted in the context of a Galactic dark matter halo, consisting partially of compact objects, a maximum-likelihood analysis gives a MACHO halo fraction of 20% for a typical halo model with a 95% confidence interval of 8%-50%. A 100% MACHO halo is ruled out at the 95% confidence level for all except our most extreme halo model. Interpreted as a Galactic halo population, the most likely MACHO mass is between 0.15 and 0.9 M☉, depending on the halo model, and the total mass in MACHOs out to 50 kpc is found to be 9 × 1010 M☉, independent of the halo model. These results are marginally consistent with our previous results, but are lower by about a factor of 2. This is mostly due to Poisson noise, because with 3.4 times more exposure and increased sensitivity to long-timescale events, we did not find the expected factor of ~4 more events. In addition to a larger data set, this work also includes an improved efficiency determination, improved likelihood analysis, and more thorough testing of systematic errors, especially with respect to the treatment of potential backgrounds to microlensing. We note that an important source of background are supernovae (SNe) in galaxies behind the LMC.

The MACHO Project: Microlensing Optical Depth toward the Galactic Bulge from Difference Image Analysis

We present the microlensing optical depth toward the Galactic bulge based on the detection of 99 events found in our Difference Image Analysis (DIA) survey. This analysis encompasses 3 yr of data, covering ~17 million stars in ~4 deg2, to a source-star baseline magnitude limit of V = 23. The DIA technique improves the quality of photometry in crowded fields, and allows us to detect more microlensing events with faint source stars. We find that this method increases the number of detection events by 85% compared with the standard analysis technique. DIA light curves of the events are presented, and the microlensing fit parameters are given. The total microlensing optical depth is estimated to be τtotal = 2.43 × 10-6, averaged over eight fields centered at l = 268 and b = -335. For the bulge component, we find τbulge = 3.23 × 10-6, assuming a 25% stellar contribution from disk sources. These optical depths are in good agreement with the past determinations of the MACHO and OGLE groups, and are higher than predicted by contemporary Galactic models. We show that our observed event timescale distribution is consistent with the distribution expected from normal mass stars, if we adopt the Scalo stellar mass function as our lens mass function. However, we note that since there is still disagreement about the exact form of the stellar mass function, there is uncertainty in this conclusion. Based on our event timescale distribution, we find no evidence for the existence of a large population of brown dwarfs in the direction of the Galactic bulge.

Massive-Star Supernovae as Major Dust Factories

We present late-time optical and mid-infrared observations of the Type II supernova 2003gd in the galaxy NGC 628. Mid-infrared excesses consistent with cooling dust in the ejecta are observed 499 to 678 days after outburst and are accompanied by increasing optical extinction and growing asymmetries in the emission-line profiles. Radiative-transfer models show that up to 0.02 solar masses of dust has formed within the ejecta, beginning as early as 250 days after outburst. These observations show that dust formation in supernova ejecta can be efficient and that massive-star supernovae could have been major dust producers throughout the history of the universe.

Robust variable star detection techniques suitable for automated searches: new results for NGC 1866

We describe sensitive techniques for identifying variable stars in multiepoch photometry lists made in two or more bandpasses or pairwise in a single bandpass. Our search strategy employs the correlation in brightness change between paired frames, which allows the extraction of information on variability in the presence of random photometric noise. A statistic for assessing the type of variable or degree of contamination by an unresolved source (depending on circumstance) is also described, as well as a bootstrap scheme for predicting confidence intervals for detection of real variability. These detection schemes are manifestly more robust than existing search techniques. To illustrate the power of this technique, we give a two-epoch example for photometry in the field of NGC 3201, a globular cluster rich in RR Lyr variables

Geometry of the Large Magellanic Cloud Disk: Results from MACHO and the Two Micron All Sky Survey

We present a detailed study of the viewing angles and geometry of the inner LMC (ρ 4°) based on a sample of more than 2000 MACHO Cepheids with complete {VR}KC light curves and single-phase Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) JHKs observations. The sample is considerably larger than any previously studied subset of LMC Cepheids and has an improved areal coverage. Single-epoch random-phase 2MASS photometry is corrected using MACHO V light curves to derive mean JHKs magnitudes. We analyze the resulting period-luminosity relations in VRJHKs to recover statistical reddening and distance to each individual Cepheid, with respect to the mean distance modulus and reddening of the LMC. By fitting a plane solution to the derived individual distance moduli, the values of LMC viewing angles are obtained: position angle θ = 1510 ± 24, inclination i = 307 ± 11. In the so-called ring analysis, we find a strong dependence of the derived viewing angles on the adopted center of the LMC, which we interpret as being due to deviations from planar geometry. Analysis of residuals from the plane fit indicates the presence of a symmetric warp in the LMC disk and the bar elevated above the disk plane. Nonplanar geometry of the inner LMC explains a broad range for values of i and θ in the literature and suggests caution when deriving viewing angles from inner LMC data.

Testing LMC Microlensing Scenarios: The Discrimination Power of the SuperMACHO Microlensing Survey

Characterizing the nature and spatial distribution of the lensing objects that produce the previously measured microlensing optical depth toward the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) remains an open problem. We present an appraisal of the ability of the SuperMACHO Project, a next-generation microlensing survey directed toward the LMC, to discriminate between various proposed lensing populations. We consider two scenarios: lensing by a uniform foreground screen of objects and self-lensing by LMC stars. The optical depth for screen lensing is essentially constant across the face of the LMC, whereas the optical depth for self-lensing shows a strong spatial dependence. We have carried out extensive simulations, based on data obtained during the first year of the project, to assess the SuperMACHO surveys ability to discriminate between these two scenarios. In our simulations we predict the expected number of observed microlensing events for various LMC models for each of our fields by adding artificial stars to the images and estimating the spatial and temporal efficiency of detecting microlensing events using Monte Carlo methods. We find that the event rate itself shows significant sensitivity to the choice of the LMC luminosity function, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn from the absolute rate. If instead we determine the differential event rate across the LMC, we will decrease the impact of these systematic biases and render our conclusions more robust. With this approach the SuperMACHO Project should be able to distinguish between the two categories of lens populations. This will provide important constraints on the nature of the lensing objects and their contributions to the Galactic dark matter halo.

Calibration of the MACHO photometry database

The MACHO Project is a microlensing survey that monitors the brightnesses of -60 million stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Small Magellanic Cloud, and Galactic bulge. The database presently contains more photometric measurements than previously recorded in the history of astronomy. We describe the calibration of the MACHO two-color photometry and transformation to the standard Kron-Cousins V and R system. This allows for proper comparison with all other observations on the Kron-Cousins standard system. The highest precision calibrations are for -9 million stars in the LMC bar. For these stars, independent photometric measurements in field-overlap regions indicate standard deviations crv = cry = 0.020 mag. Calibrated MACHO photometry data are compared with published photometric sequences and with new Hubble Space Telescope observations. We additionally describe the first application of these calibrated data: the construction of the “efficiency” color-magnitude diagram which will be used to calculate our experimental sensitivity for detecting microlensing in the LMC. Subject headings: astronomical databases: surveys astronomical methods: data analysis astronomical techniques: photometricThe MACHO Project is a microlensing survey that monitors the brightnesses of ~60 million stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Small Magellanic Cloud, and Galactic bulge. Our database presently contains about 80 billion photometric measurements, a significant fraction of all astronomical photometry. We describe the calibration of MACHO two-color photometry and transformation to the standard Kron-Cousins V and R system. Calibrated MACHO photometry may be properly compared with all other observations on the Kron-Cousins standard system, enhancing the astrophysical value of these data. For ~9 million stars in the LMC bar, independent photometric measurements of ~20,000 stars with V 18 mag in field-overlap regions demonstrate an internal precision σV = 0.021, σR = 0.019, σV-R = 0.028 mag. The accuracy of the zero point in this calibration is estimated to be ±0.035 mag for stars with colors in the range –0.1 mag < V-R < 1.2 mag. A comparison of calibrated MACHO photometry with published photometric sequences and new Hubble Space Telescope observations shows agreement. The current calibration zero-point uncertainty for the remainder of the MACHO photometry database is estimated to be ±0.10 mag in V or R and ±0.04 mag in V–R. We describe the first application of calibrated MACHO data: the construction of a color-magnitude diagram used to calculate our experimental sensitivity for detecting microlensing in the LMC.

THE MACHO PROJECT LARGE MAGELLANIC CLOUD VARIABLE-STAR INVENTORY. IX. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST-OVERTONE RR LYRAE STARS AND THE INDICATION FOR NONRADIAL PULSATIONS

More than 1300 variables classified provisionally as first-overtone RR Lyrae pulsators in the MACHO variable-star database of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) have been subjected to standard frequency analysis. Based on the remnant power in the prewhitened spectra, we found 70% of the total population to be monoperiodic. The remaining 30% (411 stars) are classified as one of nine types according to their frequency spectra. Several types of RR Lyrae pulsational behavior are clearly identified here for the first time. Together with the earlier discovered double-mode (fundamental and first-overtone) variables, this study increased the number of known double-mode stars in the LMC to 181. During the total 6.5 yr time span of the data, 10% of the stars showed strong period changes. The size, and in general also the patterns of the period changes, exclude a simple evolutionary explanation. We also discovered two additional types of multifrequency pulsators with low occurrence rates of 2% for each. In the first type, there remains one closely spaced component after prewhitening by the main pulsation frequency. In the second type, the number of remnant components is two; they are also closely spaced, and are symmetric in their frequency spacing relative to the central component. This latter type of variables are associated with their relatives among the fundamental pulsators, known as Blazhko variables. Their high frequency (≈20%) among the fundamental-mode variables versus the low occurrence rate of their first-overtone counterparts makes it more difficult to explain the Blazhko phenomenon by any theory depending mainly on the role of aspect angle or magnetic field. None of the current theoretical models are able to explain the observed close frequency components without invoking nonradial pulsation components in these stars.

Light echoes from ancient supernovae in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The light from historical supernovae could in principle still be visible as scattered-light echoes centuries after the explosion. The detection of light echoes could allow us to pinpoint the supernova event both in position and age and, most importantly, permit the acquisition of spectra to determine the ‘type’ of the supernova centuries after the direct light from the explosion first reached Earth. Although echoes have been discovered around some nearby extragalactic supernovae, targeted searches have not found any echoes in the regions of historical Galactic supernovae. Here we report three faint variable-surface-brightness complexes with high apparent proper motions pointing back to three of the six smallest (and probably youngest) previously catalogued supernova remnants in the Large Magellanic Cloud, which are believed to have been thermonuclear (type Ia) supernovae. Using the distance and apparent proper motions of these echo arcs, we estimate ages of 610 and 410 years for two of them.

The MACHO Project Large Magellanic Cloud Variable Star Inventory. XI. Frequency Analysis of the Fundamental-Mode RR Lyrae Stars

We have frequency-analyzed 6391 variables classified earlier as fundamental-mode RR Lyrae (RR0) stars in the MACHO database on the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The overwhelming majority (i.e., 96%) of these variables have been proved to be indeed RR0 stars, whereas the remaining ones have fallen into one of the following categories: single- and double-mode Cepheids, binaries, first-overtone and double-mode RR Lyrae stars, and nonclassified variables. Special attention has been paid to the properties of the amplitude- and phase-modulated RR0 stars (the Blazhko stars). We found altogether 731 Blazhko variables showing either a doublet or an equidistant triplet pattern at the main pulsation component in their frequency spectra. This sample overwhelmingly exceeds the number of Blazhko stars known in all other systems combined. The incidence rate of the Blazhko variables among the RR0 stars in the LMC is 11.9%, which is 3 times higher than their rate among the first-overtone RR Lyrae stars. No difference is found in the average brightness between the single-mode and Blazhko variables. However, the latter ones show a somewhat lower degree of skewness in their average light curves and a concomitant lower total amplitude in their modulation-free light curves. From the frequency spectra we found that variables with larger modulation amplitudes at the higher frequency side of the main pulsation component are 3 times more common than the ones showing the opposite amplitude pattern. A search for a modulation component with the Blazhko period in the average brightness of the individual variables showed the existence of such a modulation with an overall amplitude of ≈0.006 mag. On the other hand, a similar search for quadruple modulation patterns around the main pulsation component has failed to clearly detect such components at the ≈0.004 mag level. This means that the amplitudes of the quadruple components (if they exist) should be, on average, at least 10 times smaller than those of the triplet components. This finding and the existence of Blazhko variables with highly asymmetric modulation amplitudes not only question the validity of the magnetic oblique rotator model but also put stringent constraints on models based on mode-coupling theories.