Douglas P. Drob

Global morphology of infrasound propagation

[i] Atmospheric sound waves in the 0.02-10 Hz region, also known as infrasound, exhibit long-range global propagation characteristics. Measurable infrasound is produced around the globe on a daily basis by a variety of natural and man-made sources. As a result of weak classical attenuation (∼0.01 dB km -1 at 0.1 hz), these acoustic signals can propagate thousands of kilometers in tropospheric, stratospheric, and lower thermospheric ducts. To model this propagation accurately, detailed knowledge of the background atmospheric state variables, the global winds and temperature fields from the ground to ∼170 km, is required. For infrasound propagation calculations, we have developed a unique atmospheric specification system (G2S) that is capable of providing this information. Using acoustic ray tracing methods and detailed G2S atmospheric specifications, we investigate the major aspects of the spatiotemporal variability of infrasound propagation characteristics.

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

An update to the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM): The quiet time thermosphere

The Horizontal Wind Model (HWM) has been updated in the thermosphere with new observations and formulation changes. These new data are ground-based 630 nm Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) measurements in the equatorial and polar regions, as well as cross-track winds from the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite. The GOCE wind observations provide valuable wind data in the twilight regions. The ground-based FPI measurements fill latitudinal data gaps in the prior observational database. Construction of this reference model also provides the opportunity to compare these new measurements. The resulting update (HWM14) provides an improved time-dependent, observationally based, global empirical specification of the upper atmospheric general circulation patterns and migrating tides. In basic agreement with existing accepted theoretical knowledge of the thermosphere general circulation, additional calculations indicate that the empirical wind specifications are self-consistent with climatological ionosphere plasma distribution and electric field patterns.

Global O/N2 derived from DE 1 FUV dayglow data: Technique and examples from two storm periods

A technique is presented for deriving the column abundance of O relative to N2 (designated as O/N2 and referenced to an N2 depth of 1017 cm−2) from DE 1 imager dayglow data. For the band-pass filter of interest, the data are dominated by O I 130.4 nm with minor contributions from O I 135.6 nm and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield. The technique relies on a first-principles calculation of the intensity I1P for the given band pass. Independent variables are solar zenith angle S, look angle D, and O/N2. There is a degree of nonuniqueness between I1P and O/N2 (∼10%), which is accounted for in our error analysis. A bias exists between I1P and a given data set owing to errors in cross sections, the assumed solar EUV flux, and calibration. The bias is removed by scaling I1P to agree with quiet time data as close in time as possible with the data set of interest. A comparison of the behavior of I1P versus S and D is made with the empirical model of Craven and colleagues [Craven et al., 1994; Nicholas et al., 1997; Immel et al., 1997], which shows satisfactory agreement for S > 40° but some significant departures at smaller angles. Sequences of O/N2 images over 2-day periods are presented for geomagnetic storms commencing on days 267 and 295, 1981. Both storms produced major O depleted patches at midlatitudes to high latitudes, with extreme values of O/N2 more than a factor of 2 smaller than undisturbed values. The results also show longitudinal motions of the patches over the reporting periods.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASAs Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) re-analyses and the free running climate Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral domains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15-20 days. At shorter time-scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project (ARISE) that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Attribution of interminima changes in the global thermosphere and ionosphere

We present a statistical attribution analysis of the changes in global annual average thermospheric mass density and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) between the cycle 22/23 solar minimum (which occurred at epoch 1996.4) and the prolonged cycle 23/24 minimum (2008.8). The mass density data are derived from orbital drag, and the TEC data are derived from ground-based GPS receivers. The interminima change in mass density was −36% relative to the 1996.4 yearly average. Considering each multiplicative forcing independently, lower average geomagnetic activity during the cycle 23/24 minimum produced an interminima density change of at least −14%, solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance forcing produced a density change of −1% to −13%, and changes in thermospheric CO2 concentration produced a density change of −5%. There was essentially no interminima change in global TEC derived from ground-based GPS receivers or space-based altimeters, even though past behavior suggests that it should have changed −3% (0.2 TEC units (1 TECU = 1016 el m−2)) in response to lower geomagnetic activity and −1% to −9% (0.1–0.8 TECU) in response to lower EUV irradiance. There is large uncertainty in the interminima change of solar EUV irradiance; the mass density and TEC data suggest a plausible range of 0% to −6%.

Inversion of Infrasound Signals for Passive Atmospheric Remote Sensing

During the past few years, significant progress has been made in our understanding of atmospheric propagation of infrasound signals from both natural and man-made impulsive events. In this chapter, we review this progress within the framework of the early history of infrasound remote sensing, including basic geophysical remote sensing theory and linear acoustic wave propagation. Also, we review the capabilities and limitations of current global atmospheric specification models used in propagation studies.

Remote Sensing of Earth's Limb by TIMED/GUVI: Retrieval of thermospheric composition and temperature

The Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite senses far ultraviolet emissions from O and N2 in the thermosphere. Transformation of far ultraviolet radiances measured on the Earth limb into O, N2, and O2 number densities and temperature quantifies these responses and demonstrates the value of simultaneous altitude and geographic information. Composition and temperature variations are available from 2002 to 2007. This paper documents the extraction of these data products from the limb emission rates. We present the characteristics of the GUVI limb observations, retrievals of thermospheric neutral composition and temperature from the forward model, and the dramatic changes of the thermosphere with the solar cycle and geomagnetic activity. We examine the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance magnitude and trends through comparison with simultaneous Solar Extreme EUV (SEE) measurements on TIMED and find the EUV irradiance inferred from GUVI averaged (2002–2007) 30% lower magnitude than SEE version 11 and varied less with solar activity. The smaller GUVI variability is not consistent with the view that lower solar EUV radiation during the past solar minimum is the cause of historically low thermospheric mass densities. Thermospheric O and N2 densities are lower than the NRLMSISE-00 model, but O2 is consistent. We list some lessons learned from the GUVI program along with several unresolved issues.

A wide angle and high Mach number parabolic equation

Various parabolic equations for advected acoustic waves have been derived based on the assumptions of small Mach number and narrow propagation angles, which are of limited validity in atmospheric acoustics. A parabolic equation solution that does not require these assumptions is derived in the weak shear limit, which is appropriate for frequencies of about 0.1 Hz and above for atmospheric acoustics. When the variables are scaled appropriately in this limit, terms involving derivatives of the sound speed, density, and wind speed are small but can have significant cumulative effects. To obtain a solution that is valid at large distances from the source, it is necessary to account for linear terms in the first derivatives of these quantities [A. D. Pierce, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 87, 2292-2299 (1990)]. This approach is used to obtain a scalar wave equation for advected waves. Since this equation contains two depth operators that do not commute with each other, it does not readily factor into outgoing and incoming solutions. An approximate factorization is obtained that is correct to first order in the commutator of the depth operators.

Atmospheric Variability and Infrasound Monitoring

The propagation of infrasound through the troposphere, stratosphere, and thermosphere is primarily controlled by the thermal structure of the atmosphere, winds, atmospheric attenuation, and reflections from the ground terrain. It is well known that the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere vary continuously, both temporally and spatially, and that solar heating drives this change. Studies show that atmospheric absorption, and thus signal attenuation, is most severe in the thermosphere. A detailed knowledge of the variations in the atmosphere - with time, altitude, and geographic location - is needed to correctly interpret infrasound waveforms to extract useful information about infrasound sources. This will provide information that could be used to correctly identify the source, to estimate its location and time, and to predict if along a particular path a signal should be detected above noise. Much progress has been made in our understanding of the atmosphere; however, methods continue to be developed with the goal of defining atmospheric structure at a fine enough scale to accurately synthesize waveforms. A key component of this development and validation of our atmospheric modeling capability is the study of ground-truthed atmospheric events. We present results from selected case studies that shed light on the temporal and spatial variations in sound propagation characteristics to provide an overview of sound transmission through our ever-changing atmosphere and our quest for accurate atmospheric models.