Milton A. Garces

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19u2009metres (17 to 20u2009metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500u2009(±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50u2009metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

Infrasonic jet noise from volcanic eruptions

[1]xa0The lowermost section of a Vulcanian or Plinian volcanic eruption column may be thought of as a momentum-driven, turbulent, free-shear jet flow. We propose that large-amplitude and long-duration infrasonic (<20 Hz) signals recorded at ranges of tens of kilometers during powerful eruptions at Mount St. Helens, USA, and Tungurahua, Ecuador, represent a low frequency form of jet noise. A preliminary test of this hypothesis is made by comparing the observed infrasonic spectra to the empirically-derived similarity spectra for pure-air jets. Although the spectral shapes are in approximate agreement, the observed volcanic signals have additional complexities not present in the pure-air laboratory data. These features may result from multiphase flow containing solid particles and liquid droplets, very high temperatures, and perhaps complex crater morphology. However, the overall similarity between the volcanic signals and jet noise indicates that broadband infrasound measurements at volcanoes may provide a quantitative link to eruption jet dynamics, and would aid substantially in the remote assessment of volcanic hazard.

Infrasound associated with 2004–2005 large Sumatra earthquakes and tsunami

[1]xa0Large earthquakes that occurred in the Sumatra region in 2004 and 2005 generated acoustic waves recorded by the Diego Garcia infrasound array. The Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) analysis is performed to detect the seismic and infrasound signals associated with these events. The study is completed by an inverse location procedure that permitted reconstruction of the source location of the infrasonic waves. The results show that ground motion near the epicenter and vibrations of nearby land masses efficiently produced infrasound. The analysis also reveals unique evidence of long period pressure waves from the tsunami earthquake (M9.0) of December 26, 2004.

Observations of surf infrasound in Hawai‘i

[1]xa0Comparison of ocean buoy measurements with infrasonic array data collected during the epic winter of 2002–2003 shows a clear relationship between breaking ocean wave height and infrasonic signal levels. In addition, infrasonic arrays allow the identification of distinct breaking zones along the shoreline. Our observations suggest that infrasonic measurements can be used in conjunction with buoys to estimate wave heights, identify regions of high wave action, and validate surface wave propagation models.

Low-frequency acoustic-gravity waves from coseismic vertical deformation associated with the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Mw = 9.2)

[1]xa0Atmospheric pressure perturbations from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Mw = 9.2) were observed by sensitive microbarographs at several global stations. Among these observations, very low-frequency acoustic-gravity waves (∼1.4–2.8 mHz) with a group velocity around 300–314 m/s and amplitudes ranging between ∼1 and 12 Pa can be clearly identified through data processing at four stations on the Japanese Islands and also at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations around the Indian Ocean. Assuming several seismic source parameters for this great thrust earthquake, we produce synthetic barograms using a realistic thermal structure in the atmosphere up to an altitude of 220 km. For this modeling, we incorporate the source dimensions in different zones, the expanding velocity of the source region, the vertical displacements of uplift and subsidence, and their time constants. Combinations of these source parameters provide synthetic waveforms consistent with the general features of the observed low-frequency records. The results clearly indicate that the recorded waves may have been generated by large-scale coseismic uplift and subsidence of the sea bottom and associated swelling and depression of the sea surface over the source region extending for 1500 km. The uplift in the south-central zone of the Andaman-Nicobar regions may be substantially larger than in the other zones. The time constant of the coseimic vertical deformation is found to be in the range of 1.0–1.5 min, which may correspond to the time elapsed shortly before the generation of tsunami waves.

An analysis of ground shaking and transmission loss from infrasound generated by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

[1]xa0The 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake generated infrasound that was recorded by nine infrasonic arrays. Most arrays recorded a back azimuth variation with time due to the expanse of the source region. We use ray tracing to predict group velocities and back azimuth wind corrections. A Japan accelerometer network recorded ground shaking in unprecedented spatial resolution. We back projected infrasound from arrays IS44 (Kamchatka) and IS30 (Tokyo) to the source region and compare these results with acceleration data. IS44 illuminates the complex geometry of land areas that experienced shaking. IS30 illuminates two volcanoes and a flat area around the city of Sendai, where the maximum accelerations occurred. The arrays and epicentral region define three source-receiver profiles. The observed broadband energy transmission loss (TL) follows an exponential decay law. The best fitting model, which has parameters that are interpreted to include the effects of geometric spreading, scattering, and the maximum ratio of the effective sound speed in the stratosphere to that at the ground (accounts for stratospheric wind speed), yields a 65% variance reduction relative to predictions from a traditional TL relationship. This model is a simplified version of the model of Le Pichon et al. (2012), which yields an 83% variance reduction for a single frequency, implying that fine-scale atmospheric structure is required to explain the TL for stratospheric upwind propagation. Our results show that infrasonic arrays are sensitive to ground acceleration in the source region of megathrust earthquakes. The TL results may improve infrasonic amplitude scaling laws for explosive yield.

Comparison and validation of acoustic response models for wind noise reduction pipe arrays

AbstractThe detection capability of the infrasound component of the International Monitoring System (IMS) is tightly linked to the performance of its wind noise reduction systems. The wind noise reduction solution implemented at all IMS infrasound measurement systems consists of a spatial distribution of air inlets connected to the infrasound sensor through a network of pipes. This system, usually referred to as “pipe array,” has proven its efficiency in operational conditions. The objective of this paper is to present the results of the comparison and validation of three distinct acoustic response models for pipe arrays. The characteristics of the models and the results obtained for a defined set of pipe array configurations are described. A field experiment using a newly developed infrasound generator, dedicated to the validation of these models, is then presented. The comparison between the modeled and empirical acoustic responses shows that two of the three models can be confidently used to estimate p...

Erratum to: Infrasound and seismic detections associated with the 7 September 2015 Bangkok fireball

A bright fireball was reported at 01:43:35 UTC on September 7, 2015 at a height of ∼30 km above 14.5N, 98.9E near Bangkok, Thailand. It had a TNT yield equivalent of 3.9 kilotons (kt), making it the largest fireball detected in South– East Asia since the ∼50 kt 2009 Sumatra bolide. Infrasonic signals were observed at four infrasound arrays that are part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) and one infrasound array located in Singapore. Acoustic bearings and event origin times inferred from array processing are consistent with the eyewitness accounts. A seismic signal associated with this event was also likely recorded at station SRDT, in Thailand. An acoustic energy equivalent of 1.15 ± 0.24 kt is derived from the Singaporean acoustic data using the period of the peak energy.