Dowell Myers

Current preferences and future demand for denser residential environments

Abstract This article assesses the future demand for denser, more walkable residential environments in the United States as a whole. A review of survey evidence on preferences is coupled with demographic projections and other trends to construct a demand projection for the period 2000 to 2010 and compare it with 1990 to 2000. It is possible to foresee a turnabout already under way. Households older than 45 show particular interest in more densely configured homes in more central locations. Passage of the massive baby boom generation into this age range focuses the growth of housing demand in sharp contrast to stagnant numbers at younger ages. Home buyers aged 45 and older who prefer denser, more compact housing alternatives will account for 31 percent of total homeowner growth during the 2000—10 period, double the same segments market share in the 1990s.

Immigrant trajectories into homeownership: a temporal analysis of residential assimilation.

Homeownership is an important symbol of a middle-class standard of living and residential assimilation in the United States. This study explores the rate of advancement into homeownership of immigrants, relative to native borns, in Southern California, a principal region of immigrant settlement. Application of a double cohort method enables longitudinal trends for immigrants, due to both aging and assimilation, to be distinguished from the cohort levels observable by cross-sectional techniques. Recent immigrants as well as young native borns are newcomers to the housing market and have lower attainment levels than earlier arrivals or older cohorts. Cohort trajectories are tracked from 1980 to 1990, adjusting for the influence of income, education, English proficiency, and marital status. Asian immigrants achieved extraordinarily high levels of homeownership soon after arrival, whereas Hispanic immigrants demonstrated sustained advancement into homeownership from initially very low levels.

The Changing Problem of Overcrowded Housing

Abstract Overcrowding has increased in the U.S. after decades of decline—dramatically so in some locales and for some ethnic groups. The nature of the problem and its very definition for policy purposes are also changing. We examine the special characteristics of the overcrowded, where they are located, why the incidence of crowding has resurged, and why it is confined to specific locales. Ethnicity, age, immigration, and poverty play important roles, but housing market conditions appear much less important. We also show that the planning standard used to judge overcrowding is a relative one that has varied over time, and that the social norms vary among ethnic groups. The issue of overcrowding may exemplify the current perplexities about imposing uniform standards in an evolving multiethnic society. Worst-case housing needs would be better targeted in highly impacted locales by allowing more “place diversity” in the setting of standards.

Immigration cohorts and residential overcrowding in southern California

To what degree do immigrants reduce their high rates of residential overcrowding with increasing length of residence in the United States? This question is addressed through the application of a “double cohort” method that nests birth cohorts within immigration cohorts. This method enables duration of immigration effects to be separated from aging effects as cohorts pass through life course phases, when family sizes may be growing or shrinking. The analysis finds that cohort trends differ sharply from the cross-sectional pattern observed at a single point in time. Cohorts’ growth in income is found to contribute substantially to the decline in overcrowding over time. Cohort trends among Hispanic immigrants, however, diverge from those among others, indicating much less decrease in overcrowding and even increases over certain age spans.

Constructing the Future in Planning: A Survey of Theories and Tools

The fuItLu-e is a long-recognized focus of thie uirban planning profession, but it has been nieglected of late particuLlarly in the academiiic COmmLullity. This article reviews concepts, theories, and tools useful for strengthening a ftttLire focus in planning. Core analytical coIncepts InCItide distinctions among projections forecasts and plans, and continiuities of past, present, anid future. Ethical issues center oni the tension betweeni an activist shaping of the future and the maniptLilation of forecasts to support desired plans. Emphasizing representation of the future as an essential means for gaining agreement, the article surveys the practices of visioning, scenario-building, and persuasive storytelling. The conclusion outlines .r reinvigorated appi-oach to plaiinrng the futtire that draws tLipon theories presented.

Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition

Problem: The 78 million baby boomers have driven up housing demand and prices for three decades since beginning to buy homes in 1970 and continuing up the housing ladder. What will happen when boomers begin to sell off their high-priced homes to relatively smaller and less-advantaged generations? Purpose: This article presents a long-run projection of annual home buying and selling by age groups in the 50 states and considers implications for communities of the anticipated downturn in demand. Methods: We propose a method for estimating average annual age-specific buying and selling rates, weighting these by population projections to identify states whose growing proportions of seniors may cause an excess of home selling sooner than others. We also analyze the likely supplier responses to diminished demand, and recommend strategies for local planners. Results and conclusions: Sellers of existing homes provide 85% of the annual supply of homes sold, and home sales are driven by the aging of the population since seniors are net home sellers. The ratio of seniors to working-age residents will increase by 67% over the next two decades; thus we anticipate the end of a generational housing bubble. We also find that younger generations face an affordability barrier created by the recent housing price boom. With proper foresight, planners could mitigate what otherwise could be significant consequences of these projections. Takeaway for practice: The retirement of the baby boomers could signal the end of the postwar era for planning, and reverse several longstanding trends, leading decline to exceed gentrification, demand for lowdensity housing to diminish, and new emphasis on compact development. Such developments call planners to undertake new activities, including actively marketing to retain elderly residents and cultivating new immigrant residents to replace them. Research support: The Fannie Mae Foundation.

Building Knowledge about Quality of Life for Urban Planning

Abstract The comprehensive notion of community quality of life holds important opportunities for planning. Popular interest in the subject, both as a curiosity and as a goal of many interest groups, may assist with the public relations of planning and may provide a basis for negotiating consensus in planning goals. To date, planners have focused largely on individual elements of quality of life, such as transportation or housing; they have not defined and measured systematically the comprehensive community quality of life. This article describes a research method suitable for planning and contrasts it with alternative social science approaches that yield different results. The community-trend method stresses the role of quality of life within a system of ongoing development processes. The method also seeks greater policy relevance by grounding the measurements in local political reality.

Community-Relevant Measurement of Quality of Life A Focus on Local Trends

A popular term for describing our cities emerged in the 1980s: quality of life. Recent efforts to measure quality of life have responded to the growing interest of citizens, business leaders, and government officials, but these measurements have emphasized comparisons among places. Although these measurements are of value for citizens and businesses who are comparison-shopping prospective new locations, locally committed citizens and organizations have different needs. Thus an alternative, community-oriented measurement process is required. The advice of local residents is essential for both selecting and weighting components for measurement. This community orientation also places emphasis upon the trends over time in different components of a communitys quality of life. Closer attention to the local context of quality of life leads to a richer understanding of the subject.

The Gradient of Immigrant Age-at-Arrival Effects on Socioeconomic Outcomes in the U.S

A young age at arrival is believed to be an important predictor of adult immigrant achievement, but there is no consensus on what age(s) at arrival is pivotal/crucial/critical. The 2000 census reports exact years of arrival and age providing us the opportunity to test different formulations for age-at-arrival effects for several different socioeconomic outcomes. We focus on the experiences of Mexican immigrants to the U.S. in this study. Our results indicate that the effect of early arrival is much greater for English proficiency than other outcomes and bears significantly on most, not all, attainments. There is little evidence at any age of a sharp discontinuity demarcating a 1.5 generation from older immigrants and, in fact, a series of classifications or a continuous measurement of age at arrival may be preferred in some cases. Guidelines are offered for the most appropriate formulation of age at arrival under different contexts.

Intergenerational Mobility in the Post-1965 Immigration Era: Estimates By An Immigrant Generation Cohort Method

The new second generation of the post-1965 immigration era is observed as children with their parents in 1980 and again as adults 25 years later. Intergenerational mobility is assessed for both men and women in four major racial/ethnic groups, both in regard to children’s status attainment relative to parents and with regard to the rising societal standards proxied by native-born non-Hispanic whites. A profile of intergenerational mobility is prepared using multiple indicators of status attainment: high school and college completion, upper white-collar occupation, poverty, and homeowner ship. The immigrant generation cohort method we introduce accounts for four distinct temporal dimensions of immigrant progress, clarifying inconsistencies in the literature and highlighting differences in mobility between racial/ethnic groups and with respect to different outcome measures. The immigrant generation cohort method consistently finds greater intergenerational mobility than suggested by alternative approaches. Our analysis also shows that the intergenerational progress of women is greater than that of men and provides a more complete record of immigrant mobility overall. Findings for individual racial/ethnic groups accord with some expectations in the literature and contradict others.