E. A. Wrigley

The population history of England 1541-1871: a reconstruction

Introductory note Related publications Preface to the first edition Introduction Part I. From Parish Register Data to National Vital Series: 1. The basic data 2. The representativeness of the date 3. Inflation to national frequencies 4. From baptisms and burials to births and deaths: corrections for nonconformity and late baptism 5. From baptisms and burials to births and deaths: final inflation ratios: offsetting other causes of non-registration Part II. English Population History: 6. Secular trends: some basic patterns 7. Secular trends: back-projection estimates of population characteristics and vital rates 8. Short-term variations: some basic patterns 9. Short-term variation: vital rates, prices, and weather 10. The economic setting of long-term trends in English fertility and mortality 11. Conclusion Appendices Bibliography Index.

English population history from family reconstitution 1580-1837

List of figures List of tables Part I: 1. Introduction 2. The reconstitution parishes 3. Representativeness 4. Reliability Part II: 5. Nuptiality 6. Mortality 7. Fertility Part III: 8. Reconstitution and inverse projection 9. Conclusion Appendices Bibliography Index.

The Transition to an Advanced Organic Economy: Half a Millennium of English Agriculture

All organic economies were subject to constraints upon growth for reasons familiar to the classical economists, but their relative success in coping with these constraints differed substantially. This is visible both when comparing different areas at the same point in time and when comparing the circumstances of a given economy at different points in time. In this article the state of the English economy in 1300 is compared with its state in 1800. At the former date the balance between output and population was unfavourable. A run of poor harvests spelled grave and widespread suffering. Five hundred years later this had ceased to be true. The particular focus of the article is upon the significance of a rising level of productivity per head in agriculture, not simply in supplying food but in providing the raw materials and energy needed if industry and transport were to expand. In the circumstances of an organic economy both were heavily dependent upon the surplus made available by a productive agriculture after meeting the needs of the population for food.

The effect of migration on the estimation of marriage age in family reconstitution studies.

Ruggles has shown that, if marriage and migration are independent phenomena, age at marriage estimates derived from family reconstitution studies can be misleading because those who marry late are more likely to have migrated before marriage than those who marry early. Marriage age estimates based on ‘stayers’ will therefore be lower than would be the case if ‘leavers’ were also included. Whether this was true of English reconstitution data, however, is an empirical rather than a logical question. Evidence from the Census of 1851 suggests that the mean age at marriage of ‘leavers’ was very similar to that of ‘stayers’ (i.e. that marriage and migration were not independent phenomena). But, though age at marriage was much the same in the two groups, the proportions ever marrying were very different: celibacy was far commoner among ‘stayers’ than among ‘leavers’.Ruggles has shown that, if marriage and migration are independent phenomena, age at marriage estimates derived from family reconstitution studies can be misleading because those who marry late are more likely to have migrated before marriage than those who marry early. Marriage age estimates based on ‘stayers’ will therefore be lower than would be the case if ‘leavers’ were also included. Whether this was true of English reconstitution data, however, is an empirical rather than a logical question. Evidence from the Census of 1851 suggests that the mean age at marriage of ‘leavers’ was very similar to that of ‘stayers’ (i.e. that marriage and migration were not independent phenomena). But, though age at marriage was much the same in the two groups, the proportions ever marrying were very different: celibacy was far commoner among ‘stayers’ than among ‘leavers’.

British population during the ‘long’ eighteenth century, 1680–1840

THE SETTING Although large for an island, Britain does not rank among the bigger countries of western Europe. The land surface of the island is 230,000 square kilometres: that of France, the largest west European country, is 552,000 square kilometres; Spain is almost as large as France (505,000 square kilometres), while Germany (357,000 square kilometres) and Italy (301,000 square kilometres) are also substantially larger than Britain. If, for purposes of comparison, western Europe is taken to consist of the area now comprising the Scandinavian countries, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Britain, Ireland and the Iberian peninsula, then Britain occupies only 5.7 per cent of the land surface of western Europe. In the early modern period the British population did not greatly exceed the total to be expected from its proportionate share of the land surface of western Europe. For example, in 1680 the population of Britain was about 6.5million, or 7.6 per cent of the west European total of about 86 million. Yet in 1840 the British share had risen to 10.5 per cent (18.5 million out of a total of 177 million). By 1860 the comparable totals were 23.1 and 197 million and the British percentage had reached 11.7, an increase of almost 60 per cent compared with the situation 180 years earlier. Since 1860 there has been a further rise in the British share of the west European total, but it has been much slower and more modest. In 1990 the population of Britain was 56 million, 13.1 per cent of the west European total of 429 million.

Rickman revisited: the population growth rates of English counties in the early modern period1

In the 1830s, Rickman, who had supervised the taking of the first four censuses, secured additional returns of baptisms, burials, and marriages from all Anglican incumbents whose registers began early. He made use of the returns to produce new estimates of the population of each county from the sixteenth century onwards. His estimates were published in the 1841 census after his death and have been very widely quoted ever since. This article presents new county estimates, taking advantage of the fact that it is now possible to avoid some of the logical difficulties that Rickman encountered because independent estimates of national population totals are now available.

HOW RELIABLE IS OUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENGLISH POPULATION IN THE EARLY MODERN PERIOD

Anglican parish registers have been the basis for most studies of population trends and characteristics in early modern England and one of the most important of the techniques used in analysing them has been family reconstitution.... This article attempts to describe the range of difficulties and dilemmas involved in studying the demography of populations in the past when using this source of data and this technique of analysis. A variety of tests is deployed to establish the degree of reliability attaching to the results obtained in a recent exercise based on the family reconstitution of 26 parishes and more generally to assess the opportunities open to scholarship in this area and the pitfalls associated with such work. (EXCERPT)

Malthus on the Prospects for the Labouring Poor

In the penultimate chapter of St Matthews gospel, immediately before the account of the betrayal by Judas, the story is told of a visit which Jesus paid to the house of Simon the leper. As he sat eating a woman came and poured a precious ointment over his head. The disciples were indignant, saying, in the words of King Jamess bible, ‘To what purpose is this waste? For this ointment might have been sold for much, and given to the poor. When Jesus understood it, he said unto them, why trouble ye the woman for she hath wrought a good work upon me? For ye have the poor always with you; but me ye have not always’.

People, Cities and Wealth. The Transformation of Traditional Society

1. What was the Industrial Revolution? Part I The background to the industrial revolution 2. The classical economists and the Industrial Revolution 3. The process of modernization and the Industrial Revolution in England 4. The supply of raw materials in the Industrial Revolution 5. Some reflections on corn yields and prices in pre-industrial economies Part II Urban growth 6. A simple model of Londons importance in changing English society and economy, 1650-1750 7. Urban growth and agricultural change: England and the continent in the early modern period Part III Population: marriage and reproduction 8. Fertility strategy for the individual and the group 9. The growth of population in 18th-century England: a conundrum resolved 10. Family limitation in pre-industrial England 11. The fall of marital fertility in 19th-century France: exemplar of exception?.

Demography and economics

Abstract In industrialized societies such as the U.K., demographic, social and economic characteristics and changes are closely interrelated, but the study of their interconnections is often strangely neglected. Demographic research and economic research are too often carried out in separate compartments: and the same is true of teaching in the two subjects. Economists work on many problems which have important demographic aspects, without a full appreciation of the contribution which a knowledge of more sophisticated demographic analysis could make to their studies. Equally, demographic studies are often designed without regard to questions of interest to economists, or without resort to methods of analysis which economists employ and which might assist them. Too often economists and demographers are simply ignorant of each others work.