E. K. J. Kilpua

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

MULTI-POINT SHOCK AND FLUX ROPE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AROUND 2010 AUGUST 1 IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory (SDO/SOHO/STEREO), monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from the solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degrees in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE, and ARTEMIS near Earth and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (approximate to-100 nT), and was caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

Pileup accident hypothesis of magnetic storm on 17 March 2015

We propose a “pileup accident” hypothesis, based on the solar wind data analysis and magnetohydrodynamics modeling, to explain unexpectedly geoeffective solar wind structure which caused the largest magnetic storm so far during the solar cycle 24 on 17 March 2015: First, a fast coronal mass ejection with strong southward magnetic fields both in the sheath and in the ejecta was followed by a high-speed stream from a nearby coronal hole. This combination resulted in less adiabatic expansion than usual to keep the high speed, strong magnetic field, and high density within the coronal mass ejection. Second, preceding slow and high-density solar wind was piled up ahead of the coronal mass ejection just before the arrival at the Earth to further enhance its magnetic field and density. Finally, the enhanced solar wind speed, magnetic field, and density worked all together to drive the major magnetic storm.

Unraveling the drivers of the storm time radiation belt response

We present a new framework to study the time evolution and dynamics of the outer Van Allen belt electron fluxes. The framework is entirely based on the large-scale solar wind storm drivers and their substructures. The Van Allen Probe observations, revealing the electron flux behavior throughout the outer belt, are combined with continuous, long-term (over 1.5 solar cycles) geosynchronous orbit data set from GOES and solar wind measurements A superposed epoch analysis, where we normalize the timescales for each substructure (sheath, ejecta, and interface region) allows us to avoid smearing effects and to distinguish the electron flux evolution during various driver structures. We show that the radiation belt response is not random: The electron flux variations are determined by the combined effect of the structured solar wind driver and prestorm electron flux levels. In particular, we find that loss mechanisms dominate during stream interface regions, coronal mass ejection (CME) ejecta, and sheaths while enhancements occur during fast streams trailing the stream interface or the CME.

Depleting effects of ICME‐driven sheath regions on the outer electron radiation belt

We study the effect of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME)-driven sheath regions on relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes. We employ superposed epoch analysis, and, unlike previous studies, we segregate the sheath from the ejecta. We find that sheaths typically result in more than an order of magnitude decrease in the relativistic electron fluxes and that the fluxes stay below the pre-event level for more than 2 days after the sheath passage. The electron depletions are stronger for sheaths that exhibit higher power in magnetic and dynamic pressure fluctuations in the ultralow frequency range and cause larger magnetospheric compressions. Depletions are even stronger for sheaths that encompass the entire storm main phase. Our findings suggest that sheaths are effective at depleting the electron fluxes because they increase radial diffusion under magnetospheric compression conditions, thereby enhancing magnetopause shadowing losses, particularly when the Dst effect can act in concert.

The effects of geomagnetic storms on electrons in Earth's radiation belts

We use Van Allen Probes data to investigate the responses of tens of keV to 2 MeV electrons throughout a broad range of the radiation belts (2.5 ≤ L ≤ 6.0) during 52 geomagnetic storms from the most recent solar maximum. Electron storm time responses are highly dependent on both electron energy and L shell. Tens of keV electrons typically have peak fluxes in the inner belt or near-Earth plasma sheet and fill the inner magnetosphere during storm main phases. Approximately 100 to ~600 keV electrons are enhanced in up to 87% of cases around L~3.7, and their peak flux location moves to lower L shells during storm recovery phases. Relativistic electrons (≥~1 MeV) are nearly equally likely to produce enhancement, depletion, and no-change events in the outer belt. We also show that the L shell of peak flux correlates to storm magnitude only for hundreds of keV electrons.

A statistical analysis of properties of small transients in the solar wind 2007–2009: STEREO and Wind observations

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of small solar wind transients (STs) in 2007–2009. Extending work on STs by Kilpua et al. (2009) to a 3 year period, we arrive at the following identification criteria: (i) a duration < 12 h, (ii) a low proton temperature and/or a low proton beta, and (iii) enhanced field strength relative to the 3 year average. In addition, it must have at least one of the following: (a) decreased magnetic field variability, (b) large, coherent rotation of the field vector, (c) low Alfven Mach number, and (d) Te/Tp higher than the 3 year average. These criteria include magnetic flux ropes. We searched for STs using Wind and STEREO data. We exclude Alfvenic fluctuations. Case studies illustrate features of these configurations. In total, we find 126 examples, ∼81% of which lie in the slow solar wind (≤ 450 km s−1). Many start or end with sharp field and flow gradients/discontinuities. Year 2009 had the largest number of STs. The average ST duration is ∼4.3 h, 75%<6 h. Comparing with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the same solar minimum, we find the major difference to be that Tp in STs is not significantly less than the expected Tp. Thus, whereas a low Tp is generally considered a very reliable signature of ICMEs, it is not a robust signature of STs. Finally, since plasma β∼1, force-free modeling of STs having a magnetic flux rope geometry may be inappropriate.

Magnetic clouds and origins in STEREO era

When a coronal mass ejection (CME) encounters the Earth, the Earths electromagnetic environment is disturbed, especially when it is a magnetic cloud (MC) with enhanced, steady, and long-lasting southward field. The speed and the magnetic field of an MC are the two important properties for its geoeffectiveness. The correspondence between a CME and its resulting MC is not straightforward, partly due to the CME velocity and the complications during propagation through corona and the solar wind. From 2007 to 2012, we have three observing points at 1 AU near the ecliptic plane (ACE and STEREO A and B). We search for MC events encountered at one of the three observers and study the statistics independently and in comparison. We found that the annual number of MCs at each receiver varies significantly and the temporal variation at each receiver does not always follow the solar activity level. The speed and the magnetic field strength of the MCs do vary with the solar activity level. The polarity of MC magnetic field at ACE and STEREO also shows large fluctuations. We have also identified the CME and solar activity sources for the L1 MC events. STEREO SECCHI images served critical roles in the determination of the CMEs both in solar quiet times and active times. We found that halo CMEs are not necessarily good indicators for receiving MCs. Further studies of CME initial velocity and the propagation through the heliosphere are needed in order to improve our space weather forecasting capability.

Statistical Study of Strong and Extreme Geomagnetic Disturbances and Solar Cycle Characteristics

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

Properties and drivers of fast interplanetary shocks near the orbit of the Earth (1995–2013)

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis spanning over a solar cycle of the properties and drivers of traveling fast forward and fast reverse interplanetary shocks. We combine statistics of 679 shocks between 1995 and 2013 identified from the near-Earth (Wind and ACE) and STEREO-A observations. We find that fast forward shocks dominate over fast reverse shocks in all solar cycle phases except during solar minimum. Nearly all fast reverse shocks are driven by slow-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs), while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the principal drivers of fast forward shocks in all phases except at solar minimum. The occurrence rate and median speeds of CME-driven fast forward shocks follow the sunspot cycle, while SIR-associated shocks do not show such correspondence. The strength of the shock (characterized by the magnetosonic Mach number and by the upstream to downstream magnetic field and density ratio) shows relatively little variations over solar cycle. However, the shocks were slightly stronger during the ascending phase of a relatively weak solar cycle 24 than during the previous ascending phase. The CME- and SIR-driven fast forward shocks and fast reverse shocks have distinct upstream solar wind conditions, which reflect to their relative strengths. We found that CME-driven shocks are on average stronger and faster, and they show broader distributions of shock parameters than the shocks driven by SIRs.