E.L. Snary

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: a stochastic model

Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

A mathematical model for the transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium within a grower-finisher pig herd in Great Britain.

In a study of pigs slaughtered at British abattoirs, approximately 23% carried Salmonella in their cecal (large intestine) contents. The most frequent serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium (STM), which was the second most common cause of human salmonellosis in Great Britain. A pig industry-monitoring program was developed to reduce Salmonella infection on British farms. The control of STM infection on the farm requires an understanding of STM transmission dynamics within the herd, and a mathematical model has been developed for an infected grower-finisher farm. The model estimates the probability of a random pig being infected with STM. There are three broad categories of STM infection in pigs: pigs that are infected but unable to transmit the infection (latent); pigs that are infectious, i.e., able to transmit the infection (shedders); and pigs that have stopped shedding but harbor STM in their internal organs (carriers). The model estimates that 21.0% (5th and 95th percentiles, 0.05 to 77.5%) of slaughter-age pigs on an infected farm are likely to be shedding STM. Although this range is wide, it is biologically plausible. Sensitivity analysis of the total number of infected pigs revealed that the most significant input parameters are the probability of effective contact between a specific infectious and susceptible pig and the duration of shedding. The model predicted that 11.5% of pigs would be shedding STM at slaughter age. This value is close to the estimate obtained from a British abattoir survey that 11. 1% of pigs carried STM in their ceca, indicating that the model has reasonable validity.

Zoonoses Action Plan Salmonella Monitoring Programme: An Investigation of the Sampling Protocol

The Zoonoses Action Plan (ZAP) Salmonella Programme was established by the British Pig Executive to monitor Salmonella prevalence in quality-assured British pigs at slaughter by testing a sample of pigs with a meat juice enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for antibodies against group B and C(1) Salmonella. Farms were assigned a ZAP level (1 to 3) depending on the monitored prevalence, and ZAP 2 or 3 farms were required to act to reduce the prevalence. The ultimate goal was to reduce the risk of human salmonellosis attributable to British pork. A mathematical model has been developed to describe the ZAP sampling protocol. Results show that the probability of assigning a farm the correct ZAP level was high, except for farms that had a seroprevalence close to the cutoff points between different ZAP levels. Sensitivity analyses identified that the probability of assigning a farm to the correct ZAP level was dependent on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, the number of batches taken to slaughter each quarter, and the number of samples taken per batch. The variability of the predicted seroprevalence was reduced as the number of batches or samples increased and, away from the cutoff points, the probability of being assigned the correct ZAP level increased as the number of batches or samples increased. In summary, the model described here provided invaluable insight into the ZAP sampling protocol. Further work is required to understand the impact of the program for Salmonella infection in British pig farms and therefore on human health.

A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals: risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom.

In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5), 1.06 × 10(-4)) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3), 5.65 × 10(-3)) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement.

Microbiological safety of poultry meat: risk assessment as a way forward

Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) is now a key feature in the world-wide management of food safety risks, including those associated with poultry meat. This paper presents a review of MRA from the perspective of poultry meat. The methodology is outlined and key issues such as uncertainty, model complexity and model validation are highlighted. To demonstrate the use of the tool, a MRA for campylobacter infection within Great Britain (GB) is summarised and example results are presented. Presentation of the model demonstrates the way in which MRAs can be used to investigate the effects of risk mitigation strategies and identify data gaps. It is anticipated that this presentation, together with the overview of the general methodological issues, will promote an increasing understanding of the technique amongst those that have a concern in the control of campylobacter in poultry, for example, producers, microbiologists and risk managers.

Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA

In response to the European Food Safety Authoritys wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm-to-consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausage, respectively, and a dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose values are changed according to the E.U. member state (MS) of interest. In this article we demonstrate the use of the QMRA in four MSs, representing different types of countries. The predicted probability of illness from the QMRA was between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million per serving across all three product types. Fermented ready-to-eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence of lack of information for different variables was assessed by rerunning the model with alternative, more extreme, values. Out of the large number of uncertain variables, only a few of them have a strong influence on the probability of illness, in particular those describing the preparation at home and consumption.

Qualitative Release Assessment to Estimate the Likelihood of Henipavirus Entering the United Kingdom

The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV), for which fruit bats (particularly those of the genus Pteropus) are considered to be the wildlife reservoir. The recognition of henipaviruses occurring across a wider geographic and host range suggests the possibility of the virus entering the United Kingdom (UK). To estimate the likelihood of henipaviruses entering the UK, a qualitative release assessment was undertaken. To facilitate the release assessment, the world was divided into four zones according to location of outbreaks of henipaviruses, isolation of henipaviruses, proximity to other countries where incidents of henipaviruses have occurred and the distribution of Pteropus spp. fruit bats. From this release assessment, the key findings are that the importation of fruit from Zone 1 and 2 and bat bushmeat from Zone 1 each have a Low annual probability of release of henipaviruses into the UK. Similarly, the importation of bat meat from Zone 2, horses and companion animals from Zone 1 and people travelling from Zone 1 and entering the UK was estimated to pose a Very Low probability of release. The annual probability of release for all other release routes was assessed to be Negligible. It is recommended that the release assessment be periodically re-assessed to reflect changes in knowledge and circumstances over time.

Estimating the time at which commercial broiler flocks in Great Britain become infected with Campylobacter : a Bayesian approach

Campylobacter is a common cause of intestinal disease in humans and is often linked to the consumption of contaminated poultry meat. Despite considerable research on the topic there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with Campylobacter epidemiology. A Bayesian model framework was applied to multiple longitudinal datasets on Campylobacter infection in UK broiler flocks to estimate the time at which each flock was first infected with Campylobacter. The model results suggest that the day of first infection ranges from 10 to 45 days; however, over half had a time of infection between 30 and 35 days. When considering only those flocks which were thinned, 48% had an estimated day of infection within 2 days of the day of thinning, thus suggesting an association between thinning and Campylobacter infection. These results demonstrate how knowledge of the time of infection can be correlated to known events to identify potential risk factors for infection.

Pathways for entry of livestock arboviruses into Great Britain : assessing the strength of evidence

The emergence of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus in Great Britain (GB) during the last decade has highlighted the need for understanding the relative importance of the various pathways of the entry of livestock arboviruses so as to help focus surveillance and mitigation. This study summarizes what is known for the main routes of entry and assesses the strength of the current evidence for and against. Entry through infected arthropod vectors is considered at the level of each life cycle stage for tick-, biting midge- and mosquito-borne viruses, and while there is evidence that this could happen through most tick and mosquito stages, strong evidence that only exists for entry through adult midges. There is also strong evidence that entry through immature midge stages could not happen. The weight of supporting evidence is strongest for importation of viraemic livestock including horses. While there is some indication of a common pathway for midge-borne viruses from sub-Saharan Africa to GB via Continental Europe, other factors such as maternal transmission in dogs and sheep need to be considered in the light of recent findings.