M.. Wooldridge

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.

First isolation of a rabies-related virus from a Daubenton's bat in the United Kingdom

On May 30, 1996, a sick Daubentons bat (Myotis daubentonii) was recovered from the cellar of a public house in Newhaven, East Sussex. Its condition deteriorated rapidly, and it was euthanased and examined. Positive results, establishing the presence of a rabies or rabies-related virus in its brain, were obtained from the fluorescent antibody test, the rabies tissue culture isolation test, and a hemi-nested reversetranscription PCR. The complete sequence of the nucleoprotein gene was determined and a phylogenetic analysis, based on the 470 nucleotide bases of the amino terminus of the nucleoprotein, established the genotype of the virus as European bat lyssavirus 2. Bat rabies had not previously been recorded in the UK but does occur in mainland Europe. A study of the back-trajectories of the wind on May 29 and 30, established that the infected bat possibly came from near the Franco-Swiss border.

Risk factors for Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in young cattle on English and Welsh farms

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli are the most prevalent causes of bacterial diarrhoea in most of the Western World. In Great Britain, the source remains unknown for the majority of cases, though poultry is considered the main source of infection. Molecular typing methods identify cattle as a potential source of a proportion of the non-source-attributed cases, mainly through direct contact, environmental contamination or milk, but little is known about the epidemiology of Campylobacter in cattle. A cross-sectional study was undertaken on young cattle 3-17 months of age on 56 cattle farms in England and Wales to identify association between the presence of C. jejuni and C. coli and farm characteristics and management practices. Campylobacter was detected on 62.5% of the farms and the presence of dairy cows (OR: 3.7, CI(95%): 1.2; 11.7), indoor housing (OR: 4.6, CI(95%): 1.8; 12.0), private water supply (OR: 2.5, CI(95%): 1.2; 5.4), presence of horses (OR: 3.2, CI(95%):1.5; 6.9) and feeding hay (OR: 2.9, CI(95%):1.6; 5.5) were associated with detection. The models goodness-of-fit was improved when herd size was forced in the model without being statistically significant (p=0.34).

Estimating the risk of importation of foot-and-mouth disease into Europe

The opinions of a number of recognised world experts on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were sought in order to answer key questions relating to the importation of the disease into European countries from countries outside Europe. In addition, their opinions were sought on where in Europe a primary outbreak of FMD was most likely to occur and the number of outbreaks likely to occur within European countries in the next five years. The Balkans group of countries was considered to be the most likely group within Europe to have a primary outbreak of FMD and also most likely to have the highest number of primary outbreaks. Turkey was considered to be the country outside Europe which was most likely to be the source of an outbreak within Europe as a whole, and the illegal importation of livestock was considered to be the most likely route of introduction of FMD into Europe. Results specific to the Islands group of countries, which included the UK and Ireland, suggested that this group was likely to have a mean of one primary outbreak of FMD in the five years from September 2000, and that the importation of foodstuffs by people entering those countries from Turkey was the most likely source of an outbreak.

Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting previously developed models. The model is stochastic in nature, enabling both variability (natural variation between animals, carcasses, products) and uncertainty (lack of knowledge) about the input parameters to be modeled. Based on the model assumptions and data, it is concluded that the prevalence of VTEC O157 in meat products (joints and mince) at consumption is low (i.e., <0.04%). Beef products, particularly beef burgers, present the highest estimated risk with an estimated eight out of 100,000 servings on average resulting in human infection with VTEC O157.

Microbiological safety of poultry meat: risk assessment as a way forward

Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) is now a key feature in the world-wide management of food safety risks, including those associated with poultry meat. This paper presents a review of MRA from the perspective of poultry meat. The methodology is outlined and key issues such as uncertainty, model complexity and model validation are highlighted. To demonstrate the use of the tool, a MRA for campylobacter infection within Great Britain (GB) is summarised and example results are presented. Presentation of the model demonstrates the way in which MRAs can be used to investigate the effects of risk mitigation strategies and identify data gaps. It is anticipated that this presentation, together with the overview of the general methodological issues, will promote an increasing understanding of the technique amongst those that have a concern in the control of campylobacter in poultry, for example, producers, microbiologists and risk managers.

Quantitative estimates of the risk of new outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease as a result of burning pyres

The risk of dispersing foot-and-mouth disease virus into the atmosphere, and spreading it to susceptible holdings as a result of burning large numbers of carcases together on open pyres, has been estimated for six selected pyres burned during the 2001 outbreak in the UK. The probability of an animal or holding becoming infected was dependent on the estimated level of exposure to the virus predicted from the concentrations of virus calculated by the Met Office, Bracknell. In general, the probability of infection per animal and per holding decreased as their distance from the pyre increased. In the case of two of the pyres, a holding under the pyre plumes became infected on a date consistent with when the pyre was lit. However, by calculating their estimated probability of infection from the pyres it was concluded that it was unlikely that in either case the pyre was the source of infection.

Predicting the impact of climate change on livestock disease in Great Britain.

THE recent emergence of bluetongue virus (btv) in Great Britain has highlighted the need for understanding of the broad implications of climate change on the prevalence and occurrence of diseases of livestock. This short communication describes the development of a qualitative risk assessment

Estimating the Predicted Environmental Concentration of the Residues of Veterinary Medicines: Should Uncertainty and Variability Be Ignored?

European directives require that all veterinary medicines be assessed to determine the harmful effects that their use may have on the environment. Fundamental to this assessment is the calculation of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC), which is dependent on the type of drug, its associated treatment characteristics, and the route by which residues enter the environment. Deterministic models for the calculation of the PEC have previously been presented. In this article, the inclusion of variability and uncertainty within such models is introduced. In particular, models for the calculation of the PEC for residues excreted directly onto pasture by grazing animals are considered and comparison of deterministic and stochastic results suggest that uncertainty and variability cannot be ignored.

Assessing the risk of the transfer of antimicrobial resistance genes between bacteria in stored and spread farm wastes

Farm wastes have a fertiliser value and help maintain soil quality and epidemic strain may be created. Data relating to the transfer of fertility, hence their use on land intended for arable crops, livestock antimicrobial resistance genes between bacterial strains and species in grazing and horticulture. It is possible for farm wastes to contain anti- stored and spread farm wastes are being obtained via experimental work microbial resistant bacteria with transferable resistance genes. The within the project. The data will be put into quantitative risk assessment storage and spreading of farm waste may provide an opportunity for the models that describe the storage and spreading practices for farm transfer of genetic material between bacteria so that some may acquire wastes. The work focuses on the transfer of antimicrobial resistance a higher level of resistance than before. Thus, if these antimicrobial genes between Salmonella Typhimurium, commensal Escherichia coli resistant bacteria can survive the storage and application process, and and Enterococcus faecium in cattle slurry, pig slurry and poultry have the potential to colonise humans or other animals, then a new manure. Preliminary results for the spread model will be presented.