E. M. Harper

On the materials basis of modern society

Significance Modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Over time, these technologies have used a larger and more diverse array of materials. Elemental life cycle analyses yield an understanding of these materials, and a definite concern that arises is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. We studied substitution potential for 62 different metals in their major uses. For a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

Criticality of metals and metalloids

Significance In the past decade, sporadic shortages of metals and metalloids crucial to modern technology have inspired attempts to determine the relative “criticality” of various materials as a guide to materials scientists and product designers. The variety of methodologies that have been used for this purpose have (predictably) resulted in widely varying results, which are therefore of little use. In the present study, we develop a comprehensive, flexible, and transparent approach that we apply to 62 metals and metalloids. We find that the metals of most concern tend to be those with three characteristics: they are available largely or entirely as byproducts, they are used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and they possess no effective substitutes. Imbalances between metal supply and demand, real or anticipated, have inspired the concept of metal criticality. We here characterize the criticality of 62 metals and metalloids in a 3D “criticality space” consisting of supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Contributing factors that lead to extreme values include high geopolitical concentration of primary production, lack of available suitable substitutes, and political instability. The results show that the limitations for many metals important in emerging electronics (e.g., gallium and selenium) are largely those related to supply risk; those of platinum group metals, gold, and mercury, to environmental implications; and steel alloying elements (e.g., chromium and niobium) as well as elements used in high-temperature alloys (e.g., tungsten and molybdenum), to vulnerability to supply restriction. The metals of most concern tend to be those available largely or entirely as byproducts, used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and possessing no effective substitutes.

The Multilevel Cycle of Anthropogenic Zinc

Summary A comprehensive annual cycle for stocks and flows of zinc, based on data from circa 1994 and incorporating information on extraction, processing, fabrication, use, discard, recycling, and landfilling, was carried out at three discrete governmental unit levels—54 countries and 1 country group (which together comprise essentially all global anthropogenic zinc stocks and flows), nine world regions, and the planet as a whole. All of these cycles are available in an electronic supplement to this article, which thus provides a metadata set on zinc flows for the use of industrial ecology researchers. A “best estimate” global zinc cycle was constructed to resolve aggregation discrepancies. Among the most interesting results are the following: (1) The accumulation ratio, that is, addition to in-use stock as a function of zinc entering use, is positive and large (2/3 of zinc entering use is added to stock) (country, regional, and global levels); (2) secondary input ratios (fractions of input to fabrication that are from recycled zinc) and domestic recycling percentages (fractions of discarded zinc that are recycled) differ among regions by as much as a factor of six (regional level); (3) worldwide, about 40% of the zinc that was discarded in various forms was recovered and reused or recycled (global level); (4) zinc cycles can usefully be characterized by a set of ratios, including, notably, the utilization efficiency (the ratio of manufacturing waste to manufacturing output: 0.090) and the prompt scrap ratio (new scrap as a fraction of manufacturing input: 0.070) (global level). Because capturable discards are a significant fraction of primary zinc inputs, if a larger proportion of discards were recaptured, extraction requirements would decrease significantly (global level). The results provide a framework for complementary studies in resource stocks, industrial resource utilization, energy consumption, waste management, industrial economics, and environmental impacts.

By-product metals are technologically essential but have problematic supply

Metals that are obtained largely or entirely as by-products are essential to modern technology, but their supplies may be constrained due to a variety of factors. The growth in technological innovation that has occurred over the past decades has, in part, been possible because an increasing number of metals of the periodic table are used to perform specialized functions. However, there have been increasing concerns regarding the reliability of supply of some of these metals. A main contributor to these concerns is the fact that many of these metals are recovered only as by-products from a limited number of geopolitically concentrated ore deposits, rendering their supplies unable to respond to rapid changes in demand. Companionality is the degree to which a metal is obtained largely or entirely as a by-product of one or more host metals from geologic ores. The dependence of companion metal availability on the production of the host metals introduces a new facet of supply risk to modern technology. We evaluated companionality for 62 different metals and metalloids, and show that 61% (38 of 62) have companionality greater than 50%. Eighteen of the 38—including such technologically essential elements as germanium, terbium, and dysprosium—are further characterized as having geopolitically concentrated production and extremely low rates of end-of-life recycling. It is this subset of companion metals—vital in current technologies such as electronics, solar energy, medical imaging, energy-efficient lighting, and other state-of-the-art products—that may be at the greatest risk of supply constraints in the coming decades.

Criticality of the Geological Zinc, Tin, and Lead Family

Concerns about the future availability and continuity of metal supplies have triggered research efforts to define and assess metal criticality. In this study, we apply a comprehensive methodology to the elements of the geological zinc, tin, and lead family: zinc (Zn); germanium (Ge); cadmium (Cd); indium (In); tin (Sn); and lead (Pb). Zn, Sn, and Pb have played important roles in various technological sectors for centuries, whereas Ge, Cd, and In are by‐product metals that are increasingly utilized in emerging and strategic technologies. Criticality assessments are made on national (i.e., the United States) and global levels for 2008. The results are presented with uncertainty estimates in three‐dimensional “criticality space,” comprised of supply risk (SR), environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) axes. SR is the highest for In for both the medium (i.e., five to ten years) and long term (i.e., a few decades). Pb and Zn have the lowest SR for the medium term and Pb the lowest SR for the long term. In and Ge production have the highest environmental burdens, mainly as a result of emissions from Zn smelting and subsequent metals purification and recovery from Zn leaching residues. VSR is highest for Pb at the global and national levels.

Metal lost and found: dissipative uses and releases of copper in the United States 1975-2000.

Metals are used in a variety of ways, many of which lead to dissipative releases to the environment. Such releases are relevant from both a resource use and an environmental impact perspective. We present a historical analysis of copper dissipative releases in the United States from 1975 to 2000. We situate all dissipative releases in coppers life cycle and introduce a conceptual framework by which copper dissipative releases may be categorized in terms of intentionality of use and release. We interpret our results in the context of larger trends in production and consumption and government policies that have served as drivers of intentional copper releases from the relevant sources. Intentional copper releases are found to be both significant in quantity and highly variable. In 1975, for example, the largest source of intentional releases was from the application of copper-based pesticides, and this decreased more than 50% over the next 25 years; all other sources of intentional releases increased during that period. Overall, intentional copper releases decreased by approximately 15% from 1975 to 2000. Intentional uses that are unintentionally released such as copper from roofing, increased by the same percentage. Trace contaminant sources such as fossil fuel combustion, i.e., sources where both the use and the release are unintended, increased by nearly 50%. Intentional dissipative uses are equivalent to 60% of unintentional copper dissipative releases and more than five times that from trace sources. Dissipative copper releases are revealed to be modest when compared to bulk copper flows in the economy, and we introduce a metric, the dissipation index, which may be considered an economy-wide measure of resource efficiency for a particular substance. We assess the importance of dissipative releases in the calculation of recycling rates, concluding that the inclusion of dissipation in recycling rate calculations has a small, but discernible, influence, and should be included in such calculations.

Metal Dissipation and Inefficient Recycling Intensify Climate Forcing

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Assessing the Criticality of Metals

Today’s technology employs virtually the entire periodic table. The stocks and flows of the major metals, essentially unknown a decade ago, are now reasonably well quantified. Those cycles can be used to generate on overview of societal metal use. A key issue is whether scarcity implies long-term shortages or unavailability. To address this issue, a detailed methodology for generating a reliable assessment of the criticality of metals has been completed, making extensive use of peer-reviewed datasets and analytical approaches from the fields of geology, international trade, political science, and international policy, among others. This criticality evaluation has three components — Supply Risk, Environmental Implications, and Vulnerability to Supply Restriction, each of which is itself the composite of several metrics, as shown below.