Goksin Kavlak

Criticality of the Geological Zinc, Tin, and Lead Family

Concerns about the future availability and continuity of metal supplies have triggered research efforts to define and assess metal criticality. In this study, we apply a comprehensive methodology to the elements of the geological zinc, tin, and lead family: zinc (Zn); germanium (Ge); cadmium (Cd); indium (In); tin (Sn); and lead (Pb). Zn, Sn, and Pb have played important roles in various technological sectors for centuries, whereas Ge, Cd, and In are by‐product metals that are increasingly utilized in emerging and strategic technologies. Criticality assessments are made on national (i.e., the United States) and global levels for 2008. The results are presented with uncertainty estimates in three‐dimensional “criticality space,” comprised of supply risk (SR), environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) axes. SR is the highest for In for both the medium (i.e., five to ten years) and long term (i.e., a few decades). Pb and Zn have the lowest SR for the medium term and Pb the lowest SR for the long term. In and Ge production have the highest environmental burdens, mainly as a result of emissions from Zn smelting and subsequent metals purification and recovery from Zn leaching residues. VSR is highest for Pb at the global and national levels.

Metal production requirements for rapid photovoltaics deployment

If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. In this paper, we quantify the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of metals production. For example, we find that if cadmium telluride {copper indium gallium diselenide} PV accounts for more than 3% {10%} of electricity generation by 2030, the required growth rates for the production of indium and tellurium would exceed historically-observed production growth rates for a large set of metals. In contrast, even if crystalline silicon PV supplies all electricity in 2030, the required silicon production growth rate would fall within the historical range. More generally, this paper highlights possible constraints to the rate of scaling up metals production for some PV technologies, and outlines an approach to assessing projected metals growth requirements against an ensemble of past growth rates from across the metals production sector. The framework developed in this paper may be useful for evaluating the scalability of a wide range of materials and devices, to inform technology development in the laboratory, as well as public and private research investment.

Environmental Implications of Jatropha Biofuel from a Silvi-Pastoral Production System in Central-West Brazil

We present a life cycle assessment of synthetic paraffinic kerosene produced from Jatropha curcas. The feedstock is grown in an intercropping arrangement with pasture grasses so that Jatropha is coproduced with cattle. Additional innovations are introduced including hybrid seeds, detoxification of jatropha seedcake, and cogeneration. Two fuel pathways are examined including a newly developed catalytic decarboxylation process. Sensitivities are examined including higher planting density at the expense of cattle production as well as 50% lower yields. Intercropping with pasture and detoxifying seedcake yield coproducts that are expected to relieve pressure on Brazils forests and indirectly reduce environmental impacts of biofuel production. Other innovations also reduce impacts. Results of the baseline assessment indicate that innovations would reduce impacts relative to the fossil fuel reference scenario in most categories including 62-75% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, 64-82% reduction in release of ozone depleting chemicals, 33-52% reduction in smog-forming pollutants, 6-25% reduction in acidification, and 60-72% reduction in use of nonrenewable energy. System expansion, which explicitly accounts for avoided deforestation, results in larger improvements. Results are robust across allocation methodologies, improve with higher planting density, and persist if yield is reduced by half.

Growth in metals production for rapid photovoltaics deployment

If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. We quantify the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of annual metals production. If a thin-film PV technology accounts for 25% of electricity generation in 2030, the annual production of thin-film PV metals would need to grow at rates of 15-30% per year. These rates exceed those observed historically for a wide range of metals. In contrast, for the same level of crystalline silicon PV deployment, the required silicon production growth rate falls within the historical range.

Evaluating the Changing Causes of Photovoltaics Cost Reduction

Photovoltaic (PV) module costs have declined rapidly over forty years but the reasons remain elusive. Here we advance a conceptual framework and quantitative method for quantifying the causes of cost changes in a technology, and apply it to PV modules. Our method begins with a cost model that breaks down cost into variables that changed over time. Cost change equations are then derived to quantify each variables contribution. We distinguish between changes observed in variables of the cost model – which we term low-level mechanisms of cost reduction – and research and development, learning-by-doing, and scale economies, which we refer to as high-level mechanisms. We find that increased module efficiency was the leading low-level cause of cost reduction in 1980–2012, contributing almost 25% of the decline. Government-funded and private R&D was the most important high-level mechanism over this period. After 2001, however, scale economies became a more significant cause of cost reduction, approaching R&D in importance. Policies that stimulate market growth have played a key role in enabling PVs cost reduction, through privately-funded R&D and scale economies, and to a lesser extent learning-by-doing. The method presented here can be adapted to retrospectively or prospectively study many technologies, and performance metrics besides cost.