E. Philip Davis

Competition, contestability and market structure in European banking sectors on the eve of EMU

In order to assess the eAect of EMU on market conditions for banks based in countries which adopt the Single Currency, we use the H indicator suggested by Panzar and Rosse (Panzar, J.C., Rosse, J.N., 1987. Journal of Industrial Economics 35, 443‐ 456). Our contribution is to assess results separately for large and small banks, and for interest income and total income as a dependent variable. From a panel of banks over the period 1992‐1996, we provide evidence that the behavior of large banks was not fully competitive as compared to the US. Regarding small banks, the level of compe

Institutional investors, corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector

Abstract Proportions of equity held by institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds—are rising across all OECD countries. Meanwhile institutions are becoming more influential in corporate governance, even in bank-dominated countries, inter alia due to international investment, pension reform and EMU. We provide two forms of evidence on the effects of institutional corporate governance on corporate performance. First we offer a literature survey on micro evidence, the outcome of which is mixed, but on balance suggesting a positive effect on equity returns. We contend that these micro studies face a difficulty that they cannot capture effects of governance initiatives whose effects go wider than “target firms”. Accordingly, we present results for the reduced form empirical relationship between institutional share holding and corporate sector performance at an economy-wide level. These are consistent with significant effects which differ between “Anglo-Saxon” and “relationship banking” countries. For example, institutions appear to accompany lower investment and higher dividends in the former.

Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7*

To date, testing for wealth effects in consumption has mainly used aggregate wealth definitions, and/or is on a single-country basis. This study breaks new ground by analysing disaggregated wealth in consumption functions for G7 countries. Contrary to other empirical work, illiquid financial wealth, (securities, pensions and mortgage debt), tends to be a more significant long-run determinant of consumption than liquid financial wealth. We suggest that this pattern reflects a shift from liquidity constrained to life cycle behaviour following financial liberalisation. Results were robust in SURE analysis, tested in a nested manner, using varying definition of liquid assets and using non-property income instead of personal disposable income. Wald tests indicate similar long-run behaviour for all EU countries including the UK.

Financial Liberalisation, Consumption and Wealth Effects in Seven OECD Countries

We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in seven major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short-run income elasticities and a rise in short-run wealth and interest rate elasticities. A corollary is that consumption equations estimated over both pre- and post-liberalisation regimes may be misleading, and either a form of testing as presented here or a shortening of the sample period may be appropriate for accurate forecasting and simulation.

Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence give strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed have only temporary effects on equity returns.

The evolution of the financial crisis of 2007–8

The financial crisis that started in August 2008 has reached a climax in the autumn of 2008 with a wave of bank nationalisations across North America and Europe. Although banking crises are not uncommon, this is the largest since 1929—33. This paper discusses the build-up to the crisis, looking at the role of low real interest rates in stimulating an asset price bubble. That bubble was stocked by financial innovation and increases in lending. New financial products were not stress tested and have failed in the downturn. After discussing the bubbles we look at the collapse of the complex asset structure, and then put the crisis in the context of the literature. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications of the crisis, and advocates a significant improvement in the regulatory structure.

Does funding of pensions stimulate economic growth

Debate over superiority of pension funding over pay-as-you-go links notably to the question whether funding improves economic performance sufficiently to generate additional resources to meet the needs of an ageing population. To address this issue, we design a modified Cobb–Douglas production function with pension assets as a shift factor, and investigate the direct link between pension assets and economic growth employing a dataset covering up to 38 countries, using a variety of appropriate econometric methods. We find positive results for both OECD countries and Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), with consistent evidence for a larger effect for EMEs than OECD countries.

Financial Development, Institutional Investors and Economic Performance

Institutional investors comprise pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds. A salient feature of many OECD countries, and some Emerging Market Economies in recent years, is growth of such institutional investors, notably in the wake of pension reform shifting retirement income provision from pay-as-you-go to funding. Table 6.1 shows the size of pension fund sectors in selected countries where radical pension reform has taken place.2 The ongoing ageing of the population and financing difficulties of pay-as-you-go systems suggests that such reforms will become yet more common in the future. Accordingly, it is important to analyse the impact of institutional investment on the economy.

Comparing Bear Markets - 1973 and 2000

In nominal terms, the fall in global share prices since 1999/2000 bears a close resemblance to that experienced worldwide in the years following 1972/3. This article seeks to compare the two periods of market weakness in the G-7 countries in terms not only of share prices but also focusing on macroeconomic trends, financial market developments, sectoral patterns of shareholding and potential wider economic consequences of falling share prices. It is shown that the earlier period was much more severe in terms of adverse economic developments, in particular high inflation. But the current situation also presents some risks, in particular a disruptive correction of US sectoral imbalances.

A Comparison of Balance Sheet Structures in Major EU Countries

The UK is commonly viewed as having a ‘market oriented’ financial system, in contrast to other European countries which are seen as ‘bank dominated’. In the light of this supposition, we investigate sectoral balance sheet data for evidence of differences in financial structure between the UK and other major EU countries. It is found that the UK has much in common with Continental countries, in particular France, and they are themselves markedly heterogeneous. There is also some evidence of convergence towards a more market-oriented financial system, even in the most bank-dominated economy, Germany.