Iana Liadze

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in the Banking Crisis

We investigate the effects of changes in taxes using the National Institute international macro model, NiGEM. A comparison on fiscal impulses worth 1 per cent of GDP for one year is made, with a comparison of a direct tax change, indirect tax change, and a lump sum payment. Multipliers are assessed one country at a time and when policy is coordinated to increase its impacts. We look at the importance of releasing borrowing constraints in a banking crisis. The analysis assumes financial and foreign exchange markets are forward looking.

An Assessment of Bank Lending to UK SMEs in the wake of the crisis

The availability of bank finance to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) is important to allow SMEs to start up and finance investment for growth. To assess changes in such availability over 2001–12, we used data from a series of surveys that provide detailed information on the characteristics of a sample of UK SMEs, their owners and experiences of obtaining finance. Using econometric models, which included controls for SME characteristics and risk factors, indicators of changes in the provision of bank lending over the time period abstracting from borrower risk could be obtained. The results suggest ongoing restrictions on the availability of SME bank finance up to 2012 – which appear to have persisted into 2013. Further research using macro data shows an impact of economic uncertainty on such finance. If unresolved, these patterns could imply adverse effects on economic performance in the short and long term.

HOW IDIOSYNCRATIC ARE BANKING CRISES IN OECD COUNTRIES

Low levels of bank capital and liquidity in combination with ongoing crises in other countries are shown to increase the probability of banking crises in OECD countries. Hence global coordination of regulatory reform is vital for reducing crisis risks.

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE UNDER LABOUR

This article compares the performance of the UK economy since 1997 with that between 1979 and 1997 and with the performance of the other G7 economies in both periods. It concludes that Britain has done relatively well in terms of productivity growth, economic growth and national income per head but not very well in terms of labour market performance. Savings rates were too low to deliver sustainable economic growth over the period 1979–97 and there has been very little improvement since then. The performance of the economy during the recession and its immediate aftermath has been disappointing relative to the other G7 economies.