Eben H. Paxton

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds' departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico.

Significance Bird migration has captivated the attention of scientists and lay people for centuries, but many unanswered questions remain about how birds negotiate large geographic features during migration. We tracked songbirds across the Gulf of Mexico to investigate the factors associated with birds’ departure decisions, arrival at the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), and crossing times. Our findings suggest that a bird’s fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of favorable synoptic weather patterns, shape departure decisions. Fat, date, and wind conditions predict birds’ detection in the YP. This study highlights the complex decision-making process involved in crossing the Gulf and its effects on migratory routes and speeds. A better understanding of the factors influencing migration across these features will inform conservation of migratory animals. Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

Tamarisk biocontrol using tamarisk beetles: Potential consequences for riparian birds in the southwestern United States

Abstract. The tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda spp.), a non-native biocontrol agent, has been introduced to eradicate tamarisk (Tamarix spp.), a genus of non-native tree that has become a dominant component of riparian woodlands in the southwestern United States. Tamarisk beetles have the potential to spread widely and defoliate large expanses of tamarisk habitat, but the effects of such a widespread loss of riparian vegetation on birds remains unknown. We reviewed literature on the effects of other defoliating insects on birds to investigate the potential for tamarisk beetles to affect birds positively or negatively by changing food abundance and vegetation structure. We then combined data on the temporal patterns of tamarisk defoliation by beetles with nest productivity of a well-studied riparian obligate, the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), to simulate the potential demographic consequences of beetle defoliation on breeding riparian birds in both the short and long term. Our results highlight that the effects of tamarisk biocontrol on birds will likely vary by species and population, depending upon its sensitivity to seasonal defoliation by beetles and net loss of riparian habitat due to tamarisk mortality. Species with restricted distributions that include areas dominated by tamarisk may be negatively affected both in the short and long term. The rate of regeneration and/or restoration of native cottonwoods (Populus spp.) and willows (Salix spp.) relative to the rate of tamarisk loss will be critical in determining the long-term effect of this large-scale ecological experiment.

TERRITORIALITY, SITE FIDELITY, AND SURVIVORSHIP OF WILLOW FLYCATCHERS WINTERING IN COSTA RICA

Abstract We studied wintering Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii) in two seasonal freshwater wetland habitats in northwestern Costa Rica during five boreal winters, to determine habitat occupancy, overwinter and between-year site and territory fidelity, and the degree to which the sexes maintain and defend winter territories. Both males and females used agonistic displays, song, and other vocalizations to maintain and defend mutually exclusive winter territories. Males were generally more abundant than females, but this varied by site and year. There was no significant difference in male and female territory size, nor any indication of sexual habitat segregation. Similarity in morphology and aggressiveness between the sexes may account for the lack of habitat segregation and the ability of females to maintain territories at wintering sites. Each year, 80%–92% of banded flycatchers that were present in midwinter remained at the site until late winter; of these, 86%–100% of individuals maintained the same territories throughout the entire period. We also observed nonterritorial floaters that subsequently established and held winter territories. Between-year site fidelity averaged 68%, and almost all returning birds established territories with boundaries similar to the previous year. Between-year apparent survivorship estimates ranged annually from 54%–72%, with no difference between sites but weak support for higher survivorship of males compared to females. Values for winter site and territory fidelity were generally higher than those reported for other species and for Willow Flycatchers on the breeding grounds; between-year survivorship estimates were similar to those reported for breeding flycatchers.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

A technique to produce aluminum color bands for avian research

Abstract We developed a technique to produce metal (aluminum) color bands, in response to concerns about leg injuries caused by celluloid-plastic color bands applied to Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii). The technique involves color-anodized aluminum bands (unnumbered blanks and federal numbered bands), with auto pin-striping tape and flexible epoxy sealant, to create a variety of solid, half- and triple-split colors. This allows for hundreds of unique, high-contrast color combinations. During six consecutive years of application, these colored metal bands have resisted color fade compared to conventional celluloid-plastic bands, and have reduced leg injuries in the flycatcher. Although not necessarily warranted for all color-banding studies, these metal bands may provide a lower-impact option for studies of species known to be impacted by plastic color bands.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island

Climate change and disease are linked to the rapid decline of native birds on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i. The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua‘i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species’ ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua‘i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai‘i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants

Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in South America.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability - the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype-environment relationships - indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate-associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype-environment relationships into landscape-scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups.

Linking occupancy surveys with habitat characteristics to estimate abundance and distribution in an endangered cryptic bird

Accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of endangered species are crucial to determine their status and plan recovery options, but such estimates are often difficult to obtain for species with low detection probabilities or that occur in inaccessible habitats. The Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri) is a cryptic species endemic to Kauaʻi, Hawai‘i, and restricted to high elevation ravines that are largely inaccessible. To improve current population estimates, we developed an approach to model distribution and abundance of Puaiohi across their range by linking occupancy surveys to habitat characteristics, territory density, and landscape attributes. Occupancy per station ranged from 0.17 to 0.82, and was best predicted by the number and vertical extent of cliffs, cliff slope, stream width, and elevation. To link occupancy estimates with abundance, we used territory mapping data to estimate the average number of territories per survey station (0.44 and 0.66 territories per station in low and high occupancy streams, respectively), and the average number of individuals per territory (1.9). We then modeled Puaiohi occupancy as a function of two remote-sensed measures of habitat (stream sinuosity and elevation) to predict occupancy across its entire range. We combined predicted occupancy with estimates of birds per station to produce a global population estimate of 494 (95% CI 414–580) individuals. Our approach is a model for using multiple independent sources of information to accurately track population trends, and we discuss future directions for modeling abundance of this, and other, rare species.