Richard J. Camp

PROBLEMS WITH SAMPLING DESERT TORTOISES: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS BASED ON FIELD DATA

Abstract The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was listed as a U.S. threatened species in 1990 based largely on population declines inferred from mark–recapture surveys of 2.59-km2 (1-mi2) plots. Since then, several census methods have been proposed and tested, but all methods still pose logistical or statistical difficulties. We conducted computer simulations using actual tortoise location data from 21-mi2 plot surveys in southern California, USA, to identify strengths and weaknesses of current sampling strategies. We considered tortoise population estimates based on these plots as “truth” and then tested various sampling methods based on sampling smaller plots or transect lines passing through the mile squares. Data were analyzed using Schnabels mark–recapture estimate and program CAPTURE. Experimental subsampling with replacement of the 1-mi2 data using 1-km2 and 0.25-km2 plot boundaries produced data sets of smaller plot sizes, which we compared to estimates from the 1-mi2 plots. We also tested distance sampling by saturating a 1-mi2 site with computer simulated transect lines, once again evaluating bias in density estimates. Subsampling estimates from 1-km2 plots did not differ significantly from the estimates derived at 1-mi2. The 0.25-km2 subsamples significantly overestimated population sizes, chiefly because too few recaptures were made. Distance sampling simulations were biased 80% of the time and had high coefficient of variation to density ratios. Furthermore, a prospective power analysis suggested limited ability to detect population declines as high as 50%. We concluded that poor performance and bias of both sampling procedures was driven by insufficient sample size, suggesting that all efforts must be directed to increasing numbers found in order to produce reliable results. Our results suggest that present methods may not be capable of accurately estimating desert tortoise populations.

Recent status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Saipan, Mariana Islands, with emphasis on the endangered Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia

The avifauna of the Mariana Islands, an archipelago in the western Pacific, faces the threats of rapid economic development and the spread of non-native species, particularly a devastating predator, Brown Tree Snake Boiga irregularis . In this paper, we examine the status and trends of the land bird fauna of Saipan Island based on three island-wide surveys conducted in 1982, 1997, and 2007. During this period, the human population on Saipan increased more than four-fold and much of the island has been developed. The surveys employed standard point-transect methods based on Distance Sampling. Remarkably, we found nearly all species of land birds - 11 native species and three introduced species - to be common or abundant. The exception was the Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperouse , a historically rare species that was not observed on the 2007 survey, although it does persist on Saipan and other Mariana islands. A comparison of species densities among the three surveys showed that seven species, mainly fruit and seed-eaters, had increased and three species of insectivorous birds had decreased - Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons , Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinia , and Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei . Of these three, Nightingale Reed-warbler is listed as ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List and as an Endangered Species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Reed-warbler densities on Saipan decreased by more than half between 1982 and 2007. Although point transect sampling worked well for this species, density estimates and trends assessment could be improved by reallocating sampling stations among habitats and by more frequent sampling.

Long-Term Population Monitoring: Lessons Learned From an Endangered Passerine in Hawai‘i

Abstract Obtaining reliable population estimates is crucial to monitoring endangered species and developing recovery strategies. The palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered seed-eating Hawaiian honeycreeper restricted to the subalpine forests of Mauna Kea, a volcano on the island of Hawai‘i, USA. The species is vulnerable to extinction primarily because >90% of the population is concentrated in <30 km2 of habitat on the western slope of this high, dormant volcano. Annual surveys of the palila population have been conducted for ecological, legal, and other purposes since 1980. Because refinements to sampling protocols and analytical methods have evolved, we examined means of adapting the monitoring program to produce comparable estimates of abundance over the past 25-year period and into the future. We conducted variable circular plot surveys during the nonbreeding season (Jan–Mar) and this used data to obtain estimates of effective detection radius and annual density with Distance 4.0, Release 2. For comparability over the time-series, we excluded from analysis the data from new transects. We partitioned the 25-year data set (1980–1996 and 1997–2004) into 2 separate analyses because, beginning in 1997, observers received more training to reduce their tendency to estimate distances to 5-m intervals. We used geographic strata in the analysis of recent surveys because changes in habitat may have invalidated the density-based strata used previously. By adding observer and year and observer and time of day as co-variables, we improved the model fit to the 2 data sets, respectively. Annual estimates were confounded by changes in sampling methodology and analytical procedures over time. However, the addition of new transects, increased training for observers, and use of exact distance estimates instead of rounding also improved model fit. Habitat characteristics and behavior of palila that potentially influenced detection probability, sampling, analysis, and interpretation were regeneration of trees in response to reduced numbers of introduced browsing mammals, seasonally variable rates of vocalization, non-territoriality, and resource-tracking along an elevation gradient. We believe our adaptive approach to analysis and interpretation of 25 years of annual variable circular plot data could help guide similar long-term monitoring efforts.

Common ravens and number and type of linear rights-of-way

We counted common ravens (Corvus corax) during 1990 and 1991 in the Mojave Desert, California, to examine hypotheses relating to number and type of linear rights-of-way. First, we hypothesized that raven numbers would increase with increasing road traffic volume and traffic speed. Second, we hypothesized that raven numbers would show a positive relationship with increasing number of linear rights-of-way which ran in parallel. Our data did not support the first hypothesis but did support the second.

Temporal Variation in Bird and Resource Abundance Across an Elevational Gradient in Hawaii

ABSTRACT. We documented patterns of nectar availability and nectarivorous bird abundance over ∼3 years at nine study sites across an 1,800-m elevational gradient on Hawaii Island to investigate the relationship between resource variation and bird abundance. Flower density (flowers ha-1) and nectar energy content were measured across the gradient for the monodominant ‘Ōhi’a (Metrosideros polymorpha). Four nectarivorous bird species were captured monthly in mist nets and surveyed quarterly with point-transect distance sampling at each site to examine patterns of density and relative abundance. Flowering peaks were associated with season but not rainfall or elevation. Bird densities peaked in the winter and spring of each year at high elevations, but patterns were less clear at middle and low elevations. Variability in bird abundance was generally best modeled as a function of elevation, season, and flower density, but the strength of the latter effect varied with species. The low elevations had the greatest density of flowers but contained far fewer individuals of the two most strongly nectarivorous species. There is little evidence of large-scale altitudinal movement of birds in response to ‘Ōhi’a flowering peaks. The loose relationship between nectar and bird abundance may be explained by a number of potential mechanisms, including (1) demographic constraints to movement; (2) nonlimiting nectar resources; and (3) the presence of an “ecological trap,” whereby birds are attracted by the high resource abundance of, but suffer increased mortality at, middle and low elevations as a result of disease.

Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999–2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991–1993 and again during 1999–2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota’s limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. Introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota’s rare and endangered species.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island

Climate change and disease are linked to the rapid decline of native birds on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i. The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua‘i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species’ ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua‘i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai‘i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

Food Habits of Nesting Common Ravens in the Eastern Mojave Desert

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Evaluating the Long-Term Management of Introduced Ungulates to Protect the Palila, an Endangered Bird, and Its Critical Habitat in Subalpine Forest of Mauna Kea, Hawai‘i

Abstract Under the multiple-use paradigm, conflicts may arise when protection of an endangered species must compete with other management objectives. To resolve such a conflict in the Critical Habitat of the endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper, palila (Loxioides bailleui), federal courts ordered the eradication of introduced ungulates responsible for damaging the māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) forest on which palila depend. During 1980–2011, a total of 18,130 sheep (Ovis aries and O. gmelini musimon) and 310 goats (Capra hircus) were removed from Palila Critical Habitat (PCH) primarily by public hunters (54%) and secondarily by aerial shooting. Nevertheless, our analysis indicates that ungulates have increased over time. Palila numbers have declined sharply since 2003 due to long-term habitat degradation by ungulates and drought. Although culling ungulate populations has allowed some habitat improvement, their complete removal is necessary for palila to recover, especially given the potential for continued drought. Introduced predators are being controlled to reduce palila mortality, māmane and other native trees are being planted to restore some areas, and fencing is being constructed to prevent ungulate immigration. Funds are recently available for more effective eradication efforts, which are urgently needed to eliminate browsing damage in PCH and protect the palila from extinction.

Ecology in the information age: Patterns of use and attrition rates of internet-based citations in ESA journals, 1997–2005

As the amount of information available on the internet has increased, so too has the number of citations to network-accessible information in scholarly research. We searched all papers in four Ecological Society of America journals from 1997 to 2005 for articles containing a citation to material on the internet. We then tested the links to determine whether the information cited in the paper was still accessible. We identified 877 articles that contained at least one link to information on the internet and a total of 2100 unique links. The majority of these citations were based on an objects location (Uniform Resource Locator; 77%), whereas the rest were based on an objects identity (eg Digital Object Identifier, GenBank Accession number). We found that 19–30% of the location-based links were unavailable and that there was a positive relationship between the age of an article and the probability of the link being inactive. Using an internet search engine, we recovered 72–84% of the lost information, lea...