Edoardo Casiglia

Antihypertensive drugs in very old people: a subgroup meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND Beneficial clinical effects of treatment with antihypertensive drugs have been shown in middle-aged patients and in those hypertensive patients over 60 years old, but whether treatment is beneficial in patients over 80 years old is not known. METHODS We collected data from all participants aged 80 years and over in randomised controlled trials of antihypertensive drugs through direct contact with study investigators. Our primary outcome was fatal and non-fatal stroke. Secondary outcomes were death from all causes, cardiovascular death, fatal and non-fatal major coronary and cardiovascular events, and heart failure. FINDINGS There were 57 strokes and 34 deaths among 874 actively treated patients, compared with 77 strokes and 28 stroke deaths among 796 controls, representing 1 non-fatal stroke prevented for about 100 patients treated each year. The meta-analysis of data from 1670 participants aged 80 years or older suggested that treatment prevented 34% (95% CI 8-52) of strokes. Rates of major cardiovascular events and heart failure were significantly decreased, by 22% and 39%, respectively. However, there was no treatment benefit for cardiovascular death, and a non-significant 6% (-5 to 18) relative excess of death from all causes. INTERPRETATIONS The inconclusive findings for mortality contrast with the benefit of treatment for non-fatal events. Results of a large-scale specific trial are needed for definite conclusion that antihypertensive treatment is beneficial in very elderly hypertensive patients. Meanwhile, an age threshold beyond which hypertension should not be treated cannot be justified.

Fatal and Nonfatal Outcomes, Incidence of Hypertension, and Blood Pressure Changes in Relation to Urinary Sodium Excretion

CONTEXT Extrapolations from observational studies and short-term intervention trials suggest that population-wide moderation of salt intake might reduce cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVE To assess whether 24-hour urinary sodium excretion predicts blood pressure (BP) and health outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective population study, involving 3681 participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are members of families that were randomly enrolled in the Flemish Study on Genes, Environment, and Health Outcomes (1985-2004) or in the European Project on Genes in Hypertension (1999-2001). Of 3681 participants without CVD, 2096 were normotensive at baseline and 1499 had BP and sodium excretion measured at baseline and last follow-up (2005-2008). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of mortality and morbidity and association between changes in BP and sodium excretion. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) express the risk in tertiles of sodium excretion relative to average risk in the whole study population. RESULTS Among 3681 participants followed up for a median 7.9 years, CVD deaths decreased across increasing tertiles of 24-hour sodium excretion, from 50 deaths in the low (mean, 107 mmol), 24 in the medium (mean, 168 mmol), and 10 in the high excretion group (mean, 260 mmol; P < .001), resulting in respective death rates of 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5%-4.7%), 1.9% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.3%), and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.1%). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, this inverse association retained significance (P = .02): the HR in the low tertile was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.02-2.36; P = .04). Baseline sodium excretion predicted neither total mortality (P = .10) nor fatal combined with nonfatal CVD events (P = .55). Among 2096 participants followed up for 6.5 years, the risk of hypertension did not increase across increasing tertiles (P = .93). Incident hypertension was 187 (27.0%; HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.87-1.16) in the low, 190 (26.6%; HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.16) in the medium, and 175 (25.4%; HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.86-1.12) in the high sodium excretion group. In 1499 participants followed up for 6.1 years, systolic blood pressure increased by 0.37 mm Hg per year (P < .001), whereas sodium excretion did not change (-0.45 mmol per year, P = .15). However, in multivariable-adjusted analyses, a 100-mmol increase in sodium excretion was associated with 1.71 mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure (P.<001) but no change in diastolic BP. CONCLUSIONS In this population-based cohort, systolic blood pressure, but not diastolic pressure, changes over time aligned with change in sodium excretion, but this association did not translate into a higher risk of hypertension or CVD complications. Lower sodium excretion was associated with higher CVD mortality.

Prognostic Value of Reading-to-Reading Blood Pressure Variability Over 24 Hours in 8938 Subjects From 11 Populations

In previous studies, of which several were underpowered, the relation between cardiovascular outcome and blood pressure (BP) variability was inconsistent. We followed health outcomes in 8938 subjects (mean age: 53.0 years; 46.8% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations. At baseline, we assessed BP variability from the SD and average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings. We computed standardized hazard ratios (HRs) while stratifying by cohort and adjusting for 24-hour BP and other risk factors. Over 11.3 years (median), 1242 deaths (487 cardiovascular) occurred, and 1049, 577, 421, and 457 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac, or coronary event or a stroke. Higher diastolic average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings predicted (P≤0.03) total (HR: 1.14) and cardiovascular (HR: 1.21) mortality and all types of fatal combined with nonfatal end points (HR: ≥1.07) with the exception of cardiac and coronary events (HR: ≤1.02; P≥0.58). Higher systolic average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings predicted (P<0.05) total (HR: 1.11) and cardiovascular (HR: 1.16) mortality and all fatal combined with nonfatal end points (HR: ≥1.07), with the exception of cardiac and coronary events (HR: ≤1.03; P≥0.54). SD predicted only total and cardiovascular mortality. While accounting for the 24-hour BP level, average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings added <1% to the prediction of a cardiovascular event. Sensitivity analyses considering ethnicity, sex, age, previous cardiovascular disease, antihypertensive treatment, number of BP readings per recording, or the night:day BP ratio were confirmatory. In conclusion, in a large population cohort, which provided sufficient statistical power, BP variability assessed from 24-hour ambulatory recordings did not contribute much to risk stratification over and beyond 24-hour BP.

Prognostic value of isolated nocturnal hypertension on ambulatory measurement in 8711 individuals from 10 populations

Background We and other investigators previously reported that isolated nocturnal hypertension on ambulatory measurement (INH) clustered with cardiovascular risk factors and was associated with intermediate target organ damage. We investigated whether INH might also predict hard cardiovascular endpoints. Methods and results We monitored blood pressure (BP) throughout the day and followed health outcomes in 8711 individuals randomly recruited from 10 populations (mean age 54.8 years, 47.0% women). Of these, 577 untreated individuals had INH (daytime BP <135/85 mmHg and night-time BP ≥120/70 mmHg) and 994 untreated individuals had isolated daytime hypertension on ambulatory measurement (IDH; daytime BP ≥135/85 mmHg and night-time BP <120/70 mmHg). During follow-up (median 10.7 years), 1284 deaths (501 cardiovascular) occurred and 1109 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, compared with normotension (n = 3837), INH was associated with a higher risk of total mortality (hazard ratio 1.29, P = 0.045) and all cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.38, P = 0.037). IDH was associated with increases in all cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.46, P = 0.0019) and cardiac endpoints (hazard ratio 1.53, P = 0.0061). Of 577 patients with INH, 457 were normotensive (<140/90 mmHg) on office BP measurement. Hazard ratios associated with INH with additional adjustment for office BP were 1.31 (P = 0.039) and 1.38 (P = 0.044) for total mortality and all cardiovascular events, respectively. After exclusion of patients with office hypertension, these hazard ratios were 1.17 (P = 0.31) and 1.48 (P = 0.034). Conclusion INH predicts cardiovascular outcome in patients who are normotensive on office or on ambulatory daytime BP measurement.

Prognostic Value of the Morning Blood Pressure Surge in 5645 Subjects From 8 Populations

Previous studies on the prognostic significance of the morning blood pressure surge (MS) produced inconsistent results. Using the International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome, we analyzed 5645 subjects (mean age: 53.0 years; 54.0% women) randomly recruited in 8 countries. The sleep-through and the preawakening MS were the differences in the morning blood pressure with the lowest nighttime blood pressure and the preawakening blood pressure, respectively. We computed multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios comparing the risk in ethnic- and sex-specific deciles of the MS relative to the average risk in the whole study population. During follow-up (median: 11.4 years), 785 deaths and 611 fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events occurred. While accounting for covariables and the night:day ratio of systolic pressure, the hazard ratio of all-cause mortality was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.59; P=0.004) in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS (≥37.0 mm Hg). For cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, these hazard ratios were 1.18 (95% CI: 0.87 to 1.61; P=0.30) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.80; P=0.005). For all cardiovascular, cardiac, coronary, and cerebrovascular events, the hazard ratios in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.60; P=0.01), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.00; P=0.004), 1.45 (95% CI: 1.04 to 2.03; P=0.03), and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.32; P=0.74), respectively. Analysis of the preawakening systolic MS and the diastolic MS generated consistent results. In conclusion, a MS above the 90th percentile significantly and independently predicted cardiovascular outcome and might contribute to risk stratification by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

Relationship of Tachycardia With High Blood Pressure and Metabolic Abnormalities: A Study With Mixture Analysis in Three Populations

Faster resting heart rate has been shown to be associated with a higher risk of developing hypertension and a greater incidence of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of heart rate and its relationship with blood pressure and other cardiovascular risk factors in three populations. One European general population (Belgian study), one North American general population (Tecumseh study), and one European hypertensive population (HARVEST trial) were studied. Within each population, mixture analysis was used to investigate whether a mixture of two normal distributions explained the variance in heart rate better than a single distribution. In the men of all populations, mixture analysis identified a larger subpopulation of subjects with normal heart rate and a smaller one with fast heart rate. The subgroups with tachycardia had higher blood pressure and lipid levels than those with normal heart rate. In the populations in which they were measured, fasting insulin and postload glucose were also higher in the men with faster heart rate. A subgroup with tachycardia could also be singled out among the women from Tecumseh, but no relation between heart rate and blood pressure could be found. These findings show that in Western societies, high heart rate pertains to a distinct subgroup of subjects, who are more frequently men and exhibit the characteristic features of the insulin resistance syndrome. Sympathetic overactivity is likely to be the mechanism underlying this clinical condition.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Significance of White-Coat Hypertension in Older Persons With Isolated Systolic Hypertension: A Meta-Analysis Using the International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes Population

The significance of white-coat hypertension in older persons with isolated systolic hypertension remains poorly understood. We analyzed subjects from the population-based 11-country International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes database who had daytime ambulatory blood pressure (BP; ABP) and conventional BP (CBP) measurements. After excluding persons with diastolic hypertension by CBP (≥90 mm Hg) or by daytime ABP (≥85 mm Hg), a history of cardiovascular disease, and persons <18 years of age, the present analysis totaled 7295 persons, of whom 1593 had isolated systolic hypertension. During a median follow-up of 10.6 years, there was a total of 655 fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. The analyses were stratified by treatment status. In untreated subjects, those with white-coat hypertension (CBP ≥140/<90 mm Hg and ABP <135/<85 mm Hg) and subjects with normal BP (CBP <140/<90 mm Hg and ABP <135/<85 mm Hg) were at similar risk (adjusted hazard rate: 1.17 [95% CI: 0.87–1.57]; P=0.29). Furthermore, in treated subjects with isolated systolic hypertension, the cardiovascular risk was similar in elevated conventional and normal daytime systolic BP as compared with those with normal conventional and normal daytime BPs (adjusted hazard rate: 1.10 [95% CI: 0.79–1.53]; P=0.57). However, both treated isolated systolic hypertension subjects with white-coat hypertension (adjusted hazard rate: 2.00; [95% CI: 1.43–2.79]; P<0.0001) and treated subjects with normal BP (adjusted hazard rate: 1.98 [95% CI: 1.49–2.62]; P<0.0001) were at higher risk as compared with untreated normotensive subjects. In conclusion, subjects with sustained hypertension who have their ABP normalized on antihypertensive therapy but with residual white-coat effect by CBP measurement have an entity that we have termed, “treated normalized hypertension.” Therefore, one should be cautious in applying the term “white-coat hypertension” to persons receiving antihypertensive treatment.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Blood pressure and atherogenic lipoprotein profiles of fish-diet and vegetarian villagers in Tanzania: the Lugalawa study

BACKGROUND There is evidence that populations with a high intake of fish, and specifically fish oils, are at reduced risk of cardiovascular disease. To explore the effect of fish intake, we compared two groups of Bantu villagers in Tanzania; one group live on the shores of Lake Nyasa and their diet includes large amounts of freshwater fish; the other group live in the nearby hills and have a vegetarian diet. METHODS We carried out a cross-sectional study of 622 fish-consuming villagers and 686 vegetarian villagers. 618 (99.4%) and 645 (94.0%), respectively, agreed to take part. Anthropometric and self-reported medical history data were collected by one local physician and a medical assistant, who also measured blood pressure and took blood samples for measurement of plasma lipids. A dietary questionnaire was administered to 25 families (about 15% of the study population) in each village. FINDINGS After adjustment for age, sex, and alcohol intake the fish-consuming group had lower mean blood pressure than the vegetarian group (123/72 vs 133/76 mm Hg, p < 0.001). The frequencies of definite and borderline hypertension (by WHO criteria) were lower in the fish-consuming than in the vegetarian group (2.8 vs 16.4%; 9.7 vs 22.3%, respectively). Plasma concentrations of total cholesterol (mean 3.53 [SD 1.04] vs 4.10 [1.04] mmol/L), triglycerides (0.92 [0.64] vs 1.31 [0.64] mmol/L), and lipoprotein(a) (201 [213] vs 321 [212] mg/L), were all lower (p < 0.0001) in the fish-consuming group than in the vegetarian group. The proportions of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in plasma lipids were higher (p < 0.0001) in the fish-consuming group than in the vegetarian group (eicosapentaenoic acid 2.3 [1.3] vs 0.7 [0.2]%; docosapentaenoic acid 1.1 [0.4] vs 0.6 [0.3]%; docosahexaenoic acid 5.7 [1.6] vs 1.5 [1.1]%). INTERPRETATION In these villagers, consumption of freshwater fish (300-600 g daily) was associated with raised plasma concentrations of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, lower blood pressure, and lower plasma lipid concentrations.