Edson Delatorre

Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings

Zika virus genomes from Brazil The Zika virus outbreak is a major cause for concern in Brazil, where it has been linked with increased reports of otherwise rare birth defects and neuropathology. In a phylogenetic analysis, Faria et al. infer a single introduction of Zika to the Americas and estimated the introduction date to be about May to December 2013—some 12 months earlier than the virus was reported. This timing correlates with major events in the Brazilian cultural calendar associated with increased traveler numbers from areas where Zika virus has been circulating. A correlation was also observed between incidences of microcephaly and week 17 of pregnancy. Science, this issue p. 345 Virus sequencing indicates that Zika arrived in Brazil during the middle of 2013, coincident with a surge in air travelers. Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.

Zika virus evolution and spread in the Americas

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests.

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 Subtype C Epidemic in East Africa

The HIV-1 subtype C accounts for an important fraction of HIV infections in east Africa, but little is known about the genetic characteristics and evolutionary history of this epidemic. Here we reconstruct the origin and spatiotemporal dynamics of the major HIV-1 subtype C clades circulating in east Africa. A large number (n = 1,981) of subtype C pol sequences were retrieved from public databases to explore relationships between strains from the east, southern and central African regions. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis of those sequences revealed that most (>70%) strains from east Africa segregated in a single regional-specific monophyletic group, here called CEA. A second major Ethiopian subtype C lineage and a large collection of minor Kenyan and Tanzanian subtype C clades of southern African origin were also detected. A Bayesian coalescent-based method was then used to reconstruct evolutionary parameters and migration pathways of the CEA African lineage. This analysis indicates that the CEA clade most probably originated in Burundi around the early 1960s, and later spread to Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, giving rise to major country-specific monophyletic sub-clusters between the early 1970s and early 1980s. The results presented here demonstrate that a substantial proportion of subtype C infections in east Africa resulted from dissemination of a single HIV local variant, probably originated in Burundi during the 1960s. Burundi was the most important hub of dissemination of that subtype C clade in east Africa, fueling the origin of new local epidemics in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Subtype C lineages of southern African origin have also been introduced in east Africa, but seem to have had a much more restricted spread.

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades BCU-I and BCU-II), east Africa (clade CCU-I) and central Africa (clades GCU, CRF18CU and CRF19CU), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985–1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year−1 to 1.6 year−1. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

Phylodynamics of Yellow Fever Virus in the Americas: new insights into the origin of the 2017 Brazilian outbreak

Yellow fever virus (YFV) strains circulating in the Americas belong to two distinct genotypes (I and II) that have diversified into several concurrent enzootic lineages. Since 1999, YFV genotype I has spread outside endemic regions and its recent (2017) reemergence in non-endemic Southeastern Brazilian states fuels one of the largest epizootic of jungle Yellow Fever registered in the country. To better understand this phenomenon, we reconstructed the phylodynamics of YFV American genotypes using sequences from nine countries sampled along 60 years, including strains from Brazilian 2017 outbreak. Our analyses reveals that YFV genotypes I and II follow roughly similar evolutionary and demographic dynamics until the early 1990s, when a dramatic change in the diversification process of the genotype I occurred associated with the emergence and dissemination of a new lineage (here called modern). Trinidad and Tobago was the most likely source of the YFV modern-lineage that spread to Brazil and Venezuela around the late 1980s, where it replaced all lineages previously circulating. The modern-lineage caused all major YFV outbreaks detected in non-endemic South American regions since 2000, including the 2017 Brazilian outbreak, and its dissemination was coupled to the accumulation of several amino acid substitutions particularly within non-structural viral proteins.

Tracing the Origin and Northward Dissemination Dynamics of HIV-1 Subtype C in Brazil

Previous studies indicate that the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil was initiated by the introduction of a single founder strain probably originating from east Africa. However, the exact country of origin of such a founder strain as well as the origin of the subtype C viruses detected outside the Brazilian southern region remains unknown. HIV-1 subtype C pol sequences isolated in the southern, southeastern and central-western Brazilian regions (n = 209) were compared with a large number (n ~ 2,000) of subtype C pol sequences of African origin. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed that most HIV-1 subtype C Brazilian sequences branched in a single monophyletic clade (CBR-I), nested within a larger monophyletic lineage characteristic of east Africa. Bayesian analyses indicate that the CBR-I clade most probably originated in Burundi and was introduced into the Paraná state (southern region) around the middle 1970s, after which it rapidly disseminated to neighboring regions. The states of Paraná and Santa Catarina have been the most important hubs of subtype C dissemination, and routine travel and spatial accessibility seems to have been the major driving forces of this process. Five additional introductions of HIV-1 subtype C strains probably originated in eastern (n = 2), southern (n = 2) and central (n = 1) African countries were detected in the Rio de Janeiro state (southeastern region). These results indicate a continuous influx of HIV-1 subtype C strains of African origin into Brazil and also unveil the existence of unrecognized transmission networks linking this country to east Africa.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the HIV-1 Subtype G Epidemic in West and Central Africa

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in West Africa, accounting for nearly 30% of infections in the region. There is no information about the spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of this HIV-1 clade in Africa. To this end, we analyzed a total of 305 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences isolated from 11 different countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 20 years (1992 to 2011). Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescent-based method. Our analyses indicate that subtype G most probably emerged in Central Africa in 1968 (1956–1976). From Central Africa, the virus was disseminated to West and West Central Africa at multiple times from the middle 1970s onwards. Two subtype G strains probably introduced into Nigeria and Togo between the middle and the late 1970s were disseminated locally and to neighboring countries, leading to the origin of two major western African clades (GWA-I and GWA-II). Subtype G clades circulating in western and central African regions displayed an initial phase of exponential growth followed by a decline in growth rate since the early/middle 1990s; but the mean epidemic growth rate of GWA-I (0.75 year−1) and GWA-II (0.95 year−1) clades was about two times higher than that estimated for central African lineages (0.47 year−1). Notably, the overall evolutionary and demographic history of GWA-I and GWA-II clades was very similar to that estimated for the CRF06_cpx clade circulating in the same region. These results support the notion that the spatiotemporal dissemination dynamics of major HIV-1 clades circulating in western Africa have probably been shaped by the same ecological factors.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx epidemic in Western Africa.

Objective:To investigate the origin and spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx clade in western Africa. Design:A total of 180 HIV-1 CRF06_cpx-like pol sequences isolated from 12 different countries from west and west-central Africa over a period of 16 years (1995–2010) were analyzed. Methods:Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescent-based method and combined with molecular epidemiology and spatial accessibility data. Results:The CRF06_cpx most probably emerged in Burkina Faso in 1979 (1970–1985). From Burkina Faso, the virus was first disseminated to Mali and Nigeria during the 1980s and later to other countries from west and west-central Africa. Demographic reconstruction indicates that the CRF06_cpx epidemic grew exponentially during the 1980s, with a median growth rate of 0.82 year−1 (0.60–1.09 year−1), and after stabilize. We found a negative correlation between CRF06_cpx prevalence and the geographical distance to Burkina Fasos capital. Regional accessibility information agrees with the overall geographical range of the CRF06_cpx, but not fully explains the highly heterogeneous distribution pattern of this CRF at regional level. Conclusion:The CRF06_cpx epidemic in western Africa probably emerged at the late 1970s and grew during the 1980s at a rate comparable to the HIV-1 epidemics in the United States and Europe. Burkina Faso seems to be the most important epicenter of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx strain at regional level. The explanation for the current geographical distribution of CRF06_cpx is probably multifactorial.

Short Communication: Reassessing the Origin of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG Lineages Circulating in Brazil

HIV-1 CRF02_AG is responsible for at least 8% of the HIV-1 infections worldwide and is distributed mainly in West Africa. CRF02_AG has recently been reported in countries where it is not native, including Brazil. In a previous study including 10 CRF02_AG Brazilian samples, we found at least four independent introductions and two autochthonous transmission networks of this clade in Brazil. As more CRF02_AG samples have been identified in Brazil, we performed a new phylogeographic analysis using a larger dataset than before. A total of 20 Brazilian (18 from Rio de Janeiro and two from São Paulo) and 1,485 African HIV-1 CRF02_AG pol sequences were analyzed using maximum likelihood (ML). The ML tree showed that the Brazilian sequences were distributed in five different lineages. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis of the Brazilian and their most closely related African sequences (n = 212) placed the origin of all Brazilian lineages in West Africa, probably Ghana, Senegal, and Nigeria. Two monophyletic clades were identified, comprising only sequences from Rio de Janeiro, and their date of origin was estimated at around 1985 (95% highest posterior density: 1979-1992). These results support the existence of at least five independent introductions of the CRF02_AG lineage from West Africa into Brazil and further indicate that at least two of these lineages have been locally disseminated in the Rio de Janeiro state over the past 30 years.

Tracing the origin of the NS1 A188V substitution responsible for recent enhancement of Zika virus Asian genotype infectivity

A recent study showed that infectivity of Zika virus (ZIKV) Asian genotype was enhanced by an alanine-to-valine amino acid substitution at residue 188 of the NS1 protein, but the precise time and location of origin of this mutation were not formally estimated. Here, we applied a Bayesian coalescent-based framework to estimate the age and location of the ancestral viral strain carrying the A188V substitution. Our results support that the ancestral ZIKV strain carrying the A188V substitution arose in Southeastern Asia at the early 2000s and circulated in that region for some time (5-10 years) before being disseminated to Southern Pacific islands and the Americas.