Edward G. Keating

Investigating optimal replacement of aging air force systems

An availability‐oriented approach has been developed to decide when to replace an aging system. For an existing system, it is optimal to operate another year if and only if the incremental cost per available year is less than the lifetime average cost per available year of a new aircraft. We illustrate our approach using United States Air Force KC‐135 tanker data. In demonstrating our approach, we find it will be optimal to replace the KC‐135 by the end of the decade.

Government Contracting Options: A Model and Application.

This paper models and simulates a government-contractor principal-agent weapon system repair model. Insights are derived as to how government repair contracts should be constructed so as to induce optimal contractor behavior. The papers general conclusion is that the best contracting approach combines a lump-sum payment that does not vary with the number of units repaired, expensive item cost-sharing, and a contractor-provided availability guarantee. Provided there is intercontractor competition, this type of contract performs well even if the government is poorly informed about weapon system break patterns or repair costs.

Civilian Workforce Planning in the Department of Defense. Different Levels, Different Roles

Abstract : In response to more than a decade of downsizing and restructuring, the Department of Defense (DoD) is engaged in a human-resources strategic planning effort to address resulting imbalances in both skills and experience levels in many parts of DoD. The current human-resources strategic plan addresses the need to provide management systems and tools to support total workforce planning and informed decisionmaking (U.S. Department of Defense, 2003b). Attention to Department-wide civilian workforce planning stems in part from the Presidents Management Agenda of 2001 and the continuing assessments of Department-level progress on workforce planning. DoD civilian workforce-planning efforts are complicated and, at the same time, made more important by the implementation of the National Security Personnel System (NSPS), slated to begin in 2006. The NSPS will replace the traditional federal civil service personnel management system within DoD, providing DoD managers with more management flexibility.

Defense inflation: what has happened, why has it happened, and what can be done about it?

US Department of Defense (DoD) procurement and maintenance costs have risen considerably faster than economy-wide inflation over the last several decades. This outcome has occurred in large part because DoD decision-makers have demanded more complex, better maintained systems over time. Defense inflation is likely to abate when resourcing levels no longer accommodate these demands. Defense inflation should be viewed partially as a symptom, not just as a cause, of increased defense spending.

Investigating the Desirability of Navy Aircraft Service Life Extension Programs

Building on prior work on optimal replacement of aging aircraft, this paper presents three methodologies to evaluate prospective aviation Service Life Extension Programs (SLEPs) and applies these methodologies to US Navy F/A-18E/F data. While considerable uncertainty remains as to the values of key parameters (e.g. the cost of F/A-18E/F SLEPs), the preponderance of the evidence available at this juncture favors undertaking SLEPs on F/A-18E/Fs rather than replacing them with new Joint Strike Fighters.

Air Attack Against Wildfires: Understanding U.S. Forest Service Requirements for Large Aircraft

A RAND study sought to help the U.S. Forest Service determine the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires, including the cost of large fires and aircraft costs. The research team developed two models to estimate the social costminimizing portfolios of firefighting aircraft. Both models favored a fleet dominated by scoopers for the prevention of large fires

U.S. Department of Defense Experiences with Substituting Government Civilian Employees for Military Personnel: Executive Summary

Abstract : As budget pressures persist for the federal government, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) continues to seek ways to gain efficiencies and reduce costs. Optimizing the DoD workforce by implementing the most cost-effective mix of military service members, government civilian personnel, and contracts for services offers promising opportunities for savings. One force-shaping tool at the departments disposal is the ability to convert military positions to positions filled by federal civilian employeesreferred to as military-to-civilian conversions. At the request of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, RAND researchers examined DoDs most recent experience with military-to-civilian conversions. The research did not address whether the department should convert additional positions; instead, it examined the most effective ways to do so in order to inform the departments decisions on future use of this force-shaping tool.

Valuing Programmed Depot Maintenance Speed

Abstract This paper introduces a revealed preference methodology to estimate the value to the United States Air Force of expediting F-15 fighter jet Programmed Depot Maintenance (PDM). We rely on the fact the Air Force has chosen to pay for intermittent PDM on F-15s to assert F-15s must have enough value after PDM visits to justify PDM costs. Air Force expenditure data suggest a typical Fiscal Year 2005 PDM visit cost about

Defense Working Capital Fund Pricing Policies: Insights from the Defense Finance and Accounting Service

3.2 million. Using the aircraft valuation curves consistent with PDM being worthwhile, we find that expediting an F-15′s last PDM visit by a month must be worth at least

Aging Aircraft Repair-Replacement Decisions with Depot-Level Capacity as a Policy Choice Variable

60,000. However, using a plausible annual aircraft valuation decline rate, we find that expediting an old F-15′s last PDM visit by a month would be worth around