Mark V. Arena

Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs

Abstract : Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.

Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen? A Macroscopic Examination of the Trends in U.S. Naval Ship Costs Over the Past Several Decades

Abstract : Over the past four decades, the growth of U.S. Navy ship costs has exceeded the rate of inflation. This cost escalation concerns many in the Navy and the government. The real growth in Navy ship costs means that ships are becoming more expensive and outstripping the Navys ability to pay for them. Given current budget constraints, the Navy is unlikely to see an increase in its shipbuilding budget. Therefore, unless some way is found to get more out of a fixed shipbuilding budget, ship cost escalation means that the size of the Navy will inevitably shrink. In fact, by some estimates, even boosting the shipbuilding budget from

Defense inflation: what has happened, why has it happened, and what can be done about it?

10 billion annually to

F-22A Multiyear Procurement Program. An Assessment of Cost Savings

12 billion would only help the Navy achieve a fleet of 260 ships by the year 2035 rather than the nearly 290 it now has (CBO, 2005). To better understand the magnitude of ship cost escalation and its implications, the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations asked the RAND Corporation to explore several questions. These include the magnitude of cost escalation, how ship cost escalation compares with other areas of the economy and other weapon systems, the sources of cost escalation, and what might be done to reduce or minimize ship cost escalation.

Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs

US Department of Defense (DoD) procurement and maintenance costs have risen considerably faster than economy-wide inflation over the last several decades. This outcome has occurred in large part because DoD decision-makers have demanded more complex, better maintained systems over time. Defense inflation is likely to abate when resourcing levels no longer accommodate these demands. Defense inflation should be viewed partially as a symptom, not just as a cause, of increased defense spending.

Military Jet Engine Acquisition: Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology

Abstract : Buying defense weapon systems under multiyear contracts rather than a series of single-year contracts can save costs because contractors can buy materials in more economic quantities, schedule workers and facilities more efficiently, and reduce the burden of preparing multiple proposals. The U.S. Air Force is in the process of awarding multiyear contracts for 60 F-22A aircraft over three years. Congress wants to assure itself that the proposed contract will yield the promised savings and asked RAND for an independent review of the estimated savings. Researchers found that a multiyear procurement of three lots of F-22A fighters would save an estimated

Learning from Experience

411 million-about 4.5 percent of the total contract value. They were able to trace 70 percent of the

Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth: Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs

411 million to substantiated savings estimates identified by the contractors. Examining the issue of multiyear savings using several approaches produces a consistent range of results, indicating that the savings attributed to the multiyear contract by the contractors appear to be reasonable.