Edward J. Szoke

The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting

An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were denied in order to assess the relative importance of the profiler data for short-range wind forecasts. Average verification statistics from a 13-day cold-season test period indicate that the profiler data have a positive impact on short-range (3–12 h) forecasts over the RUC domain containing the lower 48 United States, which are strongest at the 3-h projection over a central U.S. subdomain that includes most of the profiler sites, as well as downwind of the profiler observations over the eastern United States. Overall, profiler data reduce wind forecast errors at all levels from 850 to 150 hPa, especially below 300 hPa where there are relatively few automated aircraft observations. At night when fewer commercial aircraft are flying, profiler data also contribute stro...

Evaluation of Regional Aircraft Observations Using TAMDAR

Abstract A multiyear evaluation of a regional aircraft observation system [Tropospheric Aircraft Meteorological Data Reports (TAMDAR)] is presented. TAMDAR observation errors are compared with errors in traditional reports from commercial aircraft [aircraft meteorological data reports (AMDAR)], and the impacts of TAMDAR observations on forecasts from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) over a 3-yr period are evaluated. Because of the high vertical resolution of TAMDAR observations near the surface, a novel verification system has been developed and employed that compares RUC forecasts against raobs every 10 hPa; this revealed TAMDAR-related positive impacts on RUC forecasts—particularly for relative humidity forecasts—that were not evident when only raob mandatory levels were considered. In addition, multiple retrospective experiments were performed over two 10-day periods, one in winter and one in summer; these allowed for the assessment of the impacts of various data assimilation strategies and varying data re...

3D visualization development at NOAA forecast systems laboratory

Visualization transforms numeric data into a visual form that enables users to conceptualize and understand the information. Three-dimensional (3D) visualization is the ability to display, analyze, manipulate and interact with 3D data in 3 space. New visualization tools, 3D in nature, are being designed to display meteorological datasets for use in operational forecasting.Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) has been supporting the development of 3D visualization software and applications since 1990. Until recently, the emphasis has been on research application. Using commercial visualization software called the Application Visualization System (AVS5), both analysis and forecast 3D data were displayed and investigated. The software was used for visual analysis and scanning of data for the presence of desired features. For example, plotting of the station observations with forecast-generated data allows visual comparison of the two. Figure 1 shows 3D images of weather parameters from the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analysis output, which is created automatically on an hourly basis for the World Wide Web.Operational meteorologists who issue forecasts and warnings for the nation from the various Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs; see http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrhq/nwspage.html for a display of WFOs across the nation) currently utilize two-dimensional displays of analyses and numerical model output, combined with images from satellites and radar. They do this on a system developed at FSL call the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Visualization has been used successfully in the research context for some time. The next logical step was to determine if 3D visualization can offer added value in an operational setting. This required developing a 3D visualization workstation application, conducting a forecast exercise using the system and evaluating feedback from the exercise. An experimental workstation application, Display 3D (D3D), was developed at FSL to investigate the complexities and 3D structure of atmospheric parameters, and potential value added of 3D displays in an operational forecast setting. The D3D system was designed to be used with the two-dimensional AWIPS operational system known as D2D.The scope of this article covers the development of the D3D application, plus a brief description of the D3D real-time exercise (RT98).

Some Mesoscale Aspects of the 6 June 1990 Limon, Colorado, Tornado Case

Abstract During the late afternoon and early evening of 6 June 1990, a series of severe thunderstorms produced nine tornadoes and numerous incidents of large hail on the High Plains of eastern Colorado. While the morning synoptic data clearly indicated a severe threat over the entire eastern half of the state, the severe activity that did occur was much more localized. Significant events were confined to a relatively small geographical region east and southeast of Denver, Colorado, including the small town of Limon some 70 miles to its southeast. Satellite, radar, surface, and upper-air data are combined in this paper to study some of the mesoscale aspects of the severe storm environment. Results show that thunderstorm outflow from a large mesoscale convective system in Kansas and Nebraska played a crucial role in focusing the severe activity in eastern Colorado. Also, the evolution of convective development during the early part of the day suggested the presence of a sharp moisture gradient along the Fro...

Forecasting for a Large Field Program: STORM-FEST

Abstract Stormscale Operational and Research Meteorology-Fronts Experimental Systems Test (STORM-FEST) was held from 1 February to 15 March 1992 in the central United States as a preliminary field systems test for an eventual larger-scale program. One of the systems tested was a remote operations center, located in Boulder, Colorado, which was significantly displaced from the main field concentration of scientists and research aircraft. In concert with the remote operations center test was a test of remote forecasting support, also centered in Boulder. The remote forecasting for STORM-FEST was the first major cooperative effort for the Boulder-Denver Experimental Forecast Facility (EFF), a cooperative effort between operations and research aimed at finding more effective ways of addressing applied meteorological problems. Two other newly formed EFFs, at Norman, Oklahoma, and Kansas City, Missouri, also played key roles in the forecasting/nowcasting support. A description of the design and function of thi...