John A. McGinley

The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS): Analyses of Clouds, Precipitation, and Temperature

The Local Analysis and Prediction System combines numerous data sources into a set of analyses and forecasts on a 10-km grid with high temporal resolution. To arrive at an analysis of cloud cover, several input analyses are combined with surface aviation observations and pilot reports of cloud layers. These input analyses are a skin temperature analysis ( used to solve for cloud layer heights and coverage ) derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite IR 11.24-mm data, other visible and multispectral imagery, a three-dimensional temperature analysis, and a three-dimensional radar reflectivity analysis derived from full volumetric radar data. Use of a model first guess for clouds is currently being phased in. The goal is to combine the data sources to take advantage of their strengths, thereby automating the synthesis similar to that of a human forecaster. The design of the analysis procedures and output displays focuses on forecaster utility. A number of derived fields are calculated including cloud type, liquid water content, ice content, and icing severity, as well as precipitation type, concentration, and accumulation. Results from validating the cloud fields against independent data obtained during the Winter Icing and Storms Project are presented. Forecasters can now make use of these analyses in a variety of situations, such as depicting sky cover and radiation characteristics over a region, three-dimensionally delineating visibility and icing conditions for aviation, depicting precipitation type, rain and snow accumulation, etc. New data sources available at NOAA’s Forecast Systems Laboratory ( FSL ) are being applied to develop new types of mesoscale analyses. The Local Analysis and Prediction System ( LAPS, McGinley 1995 ) produces analyses with an adjustable grid resolution, nominally 10 km horizontally and 50 hPa vertically. The local FSL domain currently covers northeastern Colorado as well as parts of adjoining states to the north, east, and south. LAPS analyses of temperature, moisture, pressure, winds, and clouds are being developed. This report focuses on the analyses of clouds and other hydrometeors, as well as temperature, an important input. Most fields from these analyses are examined on meteorological workstations at FSL and at other field locations with locally established domains.

IMPROVING QPE AND VERY SHORT TERM QPF An Initiative for a Community-Wide Integrated Approach

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and very short term quantitative precipitation forecasts (VSTQPF) are critical to accurate monitoring and prediction of water-related hazards and water resources. While tremendous progress has been made in the last quarter-century in many areas of QPE and VSTQPF, significant gaps continue to exist in both knowledge and capabilities that are necessary to produce accurate high-resolution precipitation estimates at the national scale for a wide spectrum of users. Toward this goal, a national next-generation QPE and VSTQPF (Q2) workshop was held in Norman, Oklahoma, on 28–30 June 2005. Scientists, operational forecasters, water managers, and stakeholders from public and private sectors, including academia, presented and discussed a broad range of precipitation and forecasting topics and issues, and developed a list of science focus areas. To meet the nations needs for the precipitation information effectively, the authors herein propose a community-wide int...

Winter icing and storms project (WISP)

Abstract Field studies in support of the Winter Icing and Storms Project (WISP) were conducted in the Colorado Front Range area from 1 February to 31 March 1990(WISP90) and from 15 January to 5 April 1991 (WISP91). The main goals of the project are to study the processes leading to the formation and depletion of supercooled liquid water in winter storms and to improve forecasts of aircraft icing. During the two field seasons, 2 research aircraft, 4 Doppler radars, 49 Mesonet stations, 7 CLASS sounding systems, 3 microwave radiometers, and a number of other facilities were deployed in the Front Range area. A comprehensive dataset was obtained on 8 anticyclonic storms, 16 cyclonic storms, and 9 frontal passages. This paper describes the objectives of the experiment, the facilities employed, the goals and results of a forecasting exercise, and applied research aspects of WISP. Research highlights are presented for several studies under way to illustrate the types of analysis being pursued. The examples chose...

Validation of a Composite Convective Index as Defined by a Real-Time Local Analysis System

Abstract Advances in remote sensing from earth- and spaceborne systems, expanded in situ observation networks, and increased low-cost computer capability will allow an unprecedented view of mesoscale weather systems from the local weather office. However, the volume of data from these new instruments, the nonconventional quantities measured, and the need for a frequent operational cycle require development of systems to translate this information into products aimed specifically at aiding the forecaster in 0- to 6-h prediction. In northeast Colorado an observing network now exists that is similar to those that a local weather office may see within 5–7 years. With GOES and TIROS satellites, Doppler radar, wind profilers, and surface mesonet stations, a unique opportunity exists to explore the use of such data in nowcasting weather phenomena. The scheme, called LAPS (the Local Analysis and Prediction System), objectively analyzes data on a high-resolution, three-dimensional grid. The analysed fields are use...

Local-Domain Mesoscale Analysis and Forecast Model Support for the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games

Abstract The National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Olympic Weather Support System (OWSS) to provide specialized operational weather support for the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games in Atlanta. Operational implementation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecast Systems Laboratory’s Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) was a key element of the OWSS. LAPS is a complete, three-dimensional data assimilation system that produced subhourly atmospheric analyses on an 8-km grid covering all the Olympic venues. The LAPS analyses also provided initial conditions to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale forecast model. RAMS forecasts were generated at least every 3 h using 8- or 2-km grids. For the first time, a comprehensive operational analysis and forecast system operated in a local NWS forecast office to support meso-β-scale forecasts and warnings. Numerous benefits of LAPS–RAMS to the local forecast office were demonstrated. The OWSS, with LAPS–RAMS included,...

The Hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ensemble members. In conjunction with a frequently cycling data assimilation system using a diabatic initialization [such as the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)], the time-lagged multimodel ensemble system offers a particularly appealing approach for QPF and PQPF applications. Using the NCEP stage IV precipitation analyses for verification, 6-h QPFs and PQPFs from this system are assessed during the period of March–May 2005 over the west-central United States. The ensemble system was initialized by hourly LAPS runs at a horizontal resolution of 12 km using two mesoscale models, including the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)...

Local data assimilation and analysis for nowcasting

Abstract Advances in remote sensing from ground-based and space-borne systems, expanded in-situ observation networks, and increased low-cost computer capability, will allow an unprecedented view of mesoscale weather systems from the local weather office. However, the volume of data from these new instruments, the nonconventional quantities measured, and a frequent operational cycle, require the development of systems to translate this information into products aimed specifically at aiding the forecaster in zero to six hour prediction. An observing network now exists in northeast Colorado that is similar to what a local weather office will have available within 5–7 years. With GOES and TIROS satellites, Doppler radar, wind profilers, and surface mesonet stations, we have a unique opportunity to explore the use of such data in nowcasting weather phenomena. The scheme, called LAPS (the Local Analysis and Prediction System), objectively analyzes data on a high-resolution (10-km), three-dimensional grid. The analyzed fields are used to generate mesoscale forecast products currently aimed at convection and aircraft icing. Substantial skill was demonstrated during a convective forecasting experiment. While preliminary results from the icing experiment indicate improvements are needed with fine detail, the results are useful in an areally averaged sense.

Forecasting for a Large Field Program: STORM-FEST

Abstract Stormscale Operational and Research Meteorology-Fronts Experimental Systems Test (STORM-FEST) was held from 1 February to 15 March 1992 in the central United States as a preliminary field systems test for an eventual larger-scale program. One of the systems tested was a remote operations center, located in Boulder, Colorado, which was significantly displaced from the main field concentration of scientists and research aircraft. In concert with the remote operations center test was a test of remote forecasting support, also centered in Boulder. The remote forecasting for STORM-FEST was the first major cooperative effort for the Boulder-Denver Experimental Forecast Facility (EFF), a cooperative effort between operations and research aimed at finding more effective ways of addressing applied meteorological problems. Two other newly formed EFFs, at Norman, Oklahoma, and Kansas City, Missouri, also played key roles in the forecasting/nowcasting support. A description of the design and function of thi...