Edward M. Crenshaw

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms *

Objective. We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method. We use ordinary least squares regression with White’s (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results. Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions. Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.

Post-industrial transformations and cyber-space: a cross-national analysis of Internet development

Abstract At centurys end, a combination of telecommunications and computer technologies has resulted in the creation of the Internet, a global network of computers that has been growing at an exponential rate. Although the Internet/World Wide Web combination is widely hailed as a new, powerful engine of global social and economic change, there has been very little sociological theorizing and even less sociological research on the globalization of the Internet. Using classical macrosocial theories of development as a springboard, we hypothesize that the level of development, political openness/democracy, mass education, the presence of a sizeable tertiary/services sector, and interactions between some of these variables will drive the Internets growth and spread around the globe. In our cross-national analysis of approximately 74 developed and developing countries, we find that Internet capacity is not in fact a simple linear function of economic and political development, but rather has been driven by complex interactions that could aptly be termed “post-industrialism.” Uncovering some of these structural preconditions and determinants of Internet diffusion provides a first step toward providing a theoretical and empirical sociology of this “third technological revolution.”

Social Structure and Global Climate Change: Sociological Propositions concerning the Greenhouse Effect

Abstract Although there is accumulating evidence that socioeconomic and political organization are central driving forces behind greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation, most recent discussions of global environmental degradation have neglected the role of social structure in climate change. We critically assess neo-Malthusianism and macrosocial theories of development to identify a set of hypotheses about the social structural sources of the greenhouse effect and their role in constraining possible mitigation strategies. Although neo-Malthusian arguments about population growth, affluence and advanced technology may prove decisive in the long run, arguments derived from modernization, ecological-evolutionary, world-system and state-centered theories of development point to a set of emergent properties, non-linearities and equity conflicts that may significantly alter these projections. Future policy discussions need to be informed by these considerations of social structure to be effective.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN ECOLOGICAL FOCUS

Demographic transition theory posits that modernization particularly in the form of urban industrialism fundamentally alters the environmental context surrounding fertility decision-making thereby reducing the advantages of having children. While fertility research has either questioned the link between modernization and fertility or attempted to provide the intervening links between the two there has been little theoretical or empirical refinement of the macrosocial/contextual principles of the theory. The authors argue that human ecology and evolutionary theory can help respecify and revitalize demographic transition theory. The authors respecification produces a more logical account of fertility decline that emphasizes the influences of service economies and the social adaptations attendant on ethnic heterogeneity and preindustrial social complexity. Analyses of changes in total fertility rates in approximately 60 less developed countries suggest: 1) general (if partially ambiguous) support for demographic transition theory 2) confirmation of a robust effect of service-sector dominance on fertility and 3) the importance of ethnic homogeneity and preindustrial social complexity to demographic transition. (authors)

Social justice and local development policy

INTRODUCTION Full Employment at Living Wages - with Thomas Vietorisz and Bennett Harrison Social Justice and Public Policy - with Howard M McGary Jr Job Generation as a Road to Recovery Political Development in Chicago - with Kari J Moe From Campaign to Government Strategic Planning and the Pursuit of Reform, Economic Development, and Equity - with Kari J Moe and Irene Sherr Managing Planned Change - with Kari J Moe Decentralization of Policy Making - with Wim Wiewal and Lauri Alpern Democratic Populism in the United States - with Robert P Giloth The Case of Playskool and Chicago Spatial Change and Social Justice - with Robert P Giloth Cooperative Leadership for Community Problem Solving - with Robert P Giloth Community Development and Diversity

Socio-demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growths effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity) boosts contemporary economic performance; (3. ethnic polarization impairs economic growth; and (4. a nations degree of sociolinguistic integration positively influences economic performance. Investigating annual changes in real gross domestic product per capita from 1970 to 2000, our pooled time-series analyses of 101 developed and developing countries generally support these hypotheses net of common alternative explanations, suggesting that the etiology of economic growth could benefit from the reintroduction of classic and contemporary sociological theories.

“Jump-Starting” Development: Hyperurbanization as a Long-Term Economic Investment

Abstract Although hyperurbanization has been linked to many problems in the Third World, we contend that those nations in the greatest need of agglomeration economies are the ones experiencing the most rapid urbanization. We offer a view of hyperurbanization as a means of “jump-starting” development for those nations facing severe demographic, technological and organizational constraints. In samples of approximately 60 developing nations, results indicate that rapid growth in large-scale urbanization is a self-limiting dynamic that attenuates with urban and economic growth. The process of hyperurbanization is more pronounced in nations exhibiting low levels of urbanization, low-to-intermediate levels of development, poorly developed rural economies and very rapid population growth rates. These characteristics rather than urban growth itself account for the common finding that rapid urbanization damages economic growth. On the other hand, we find that the level of large-scale urbanization in 1965 is positi...

City Size and Political Contention

Abstract In this research we propose an ironic theory of urban concentration, city size, and democratic reform. Authoritarian regimes tend to concentrate their countries’ populations in primate cities early in development. While this allows autocratic regimes to easily monitor and suppress most of their countries’ would-be political entrepreneurs and incipient social movement organizations, over time such primate cities can grow very large, concentrating grievance (in the form of conspicuous inequalities and ascribed identities) in places that may also offer unique mobilization resources (e.g., international media). We propose that large primary cities can become democratic “pressure cookers” for authoritarian regimes, suggesting that a countrys space-economy may be an integral part of the puzzle of democratic transition. Using information from over eighty developing countries, our fixed-effects pooled time-series analyses of city growth, antistate demonstrations, and democratization generally bear out our theory. We conclude that authoritarian rulers do enjoy political and economic advantages by encouraging or dictating urban concentration, but also that these advantages probably diminish and perhaps reverse over time. As primary cities swell in population, they form global “theaters” that amplify contention and encourage other social forces that hasten democratic reform, which can hoist authoritarianism “on its own petard.” We offer this as a somewhat ironic addendum to current macrosocial theories of political contention and change.

Political Violence as an Object of Study: The Need for Taxonomic Clarity

Taxonomies are essential to science because they represent the way human minds work. As Pinker (2002: 203) notes, “intelligence depends on lumping together things that share properties, so that we are not flabbergasted by every new thing we encounter.” The bedrock of our sciences, and especially the social sciences, is neither methodology nor causal modeling, but rather taxonomy (or, more specifically, the construction of variables within a theory-driven schema), for both our methods and our models may produce deeply flawed conclusions if our theoretical objects are poorly constructed or specified. As Lenski (1994: 1–2) points out, “Comprehensive taxonomies that are grounded in careful observation – even when incomplete or incorrect in earlier formulations – provide both a foundation for the formulation of basic theory and a spur to innovative research.” Social science has long lacked a consensus on taxonomic classifications of political violence and, more generally, political action. What exactly constitutes a “war?” Is “terrorism” a political act or simply a crime? Is the use of violence the only dimension separating the terrorist from the social movement activitist, and if not, what deeper kinship exists between the two? All of these questions are complicated by the general lack of consensus on the meaning of terms like “activism,” “terrorism,” “warfare,” and “guerilla activity.” Such questions bedevil the empirical literature to the point that data clearinghouses often offer multiple categories of a phenomenon in order to cater to the varying taxonomic tastes and theoretical needs of their clientele. Of all forms of politically inspired violence, the most contentious is clearly “terrorism.” Aside from the oft-quoted saw that “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom-fighter,” the main problem with the term is that it elicits emotion – essentially, it is immediately pejorative. Neither “terrorists” nor their sympathizers embrace the term when applied to themselves, opting instead for more neutral (or even ennobling) terms like “insurgent” or “guerilla.” Moreover, most modern nations have at one time or another oppressed or “terrified” a subject population, and when added to the fact that many nations actually sponsor terrorist-like activities in other countries,

New Directions in Urban Sociology

The city has always occupied a central place in sociological theory. Spencer, Durkheim, and Simmel all considered population density (the sine qua non of urbanization) to be the engine of modernity. Marx viewed the centralization of the proletariat in cities as an important trigger igniting class consciousness. Weber attributed Western culture and subsequent modernity to the unique semiautonomous nature of cities in the West. Essentially, the birth of sociology can be attributed to the rapid social changes of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, and cities were (and are) at the heart of many of those changes. The role of cities in social change has only intensified over the past century and a half. Somewhere around the year 2000 the world became more urban than rural. In 1950 only about 30 percent of the world’s population dwelled in cities, but that number is estimated to climb to 66 percent by 2050. At the time of this writing, some 3.9 billion people live in urban areas, up from a mere 746 million in 1950. In that same year, the Tokyo and New York metropolitan areas were the world’s only megacities (i.e., cities of 10 million of more); by 2030, there may be as many as forty-one such cities around the world, most of them in the developing world (United Nations 2014). Given that cities predate kingdoms, empires, and the nation-state as governing units (Soja 2010), it does not take much imagination to foresee so-called world cities eventually shaking off the husks of their national overseers and becoming massive, autonomous city-states. Regardless of what the