J. Craig Jenkins

Insurgency of the Powerless: Farm Worker Movements (1946-1972).

Drawing on the perspective developed in recent work by Oberschall (1973), Tilly (1975) and Gamson (1975), we analyze the political process centered around farm worker insurgencies. Comparing the experience of two challenges, we argue that the factors favored in the classical social movement literature fail to account for either the rise or outcome of insurgency. Instead, the important variables pertain to social resources-in our case, sponsorship by established organizations. Farm workers themselves are powerless; as an excluded group, their demands tend to be systematically ignored. But powerlessness may be overridden if the national political elite is neutralized and members of the polity contribute resources and attack insurgent targets. To test the argument, entries in the New York Times Annual Index are content coded and statistically analyzed, demonstrating how the political environment surrounding insurgent efforts alternatively contains them or makes them successful.

Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimson’s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms *

Objective. We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method. We use ordinary least squares regression with White’s (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results. Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions. Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.

Political Opportunities and African‐American Protest, 1948–19971

Some contend that political opportunity theory is ad hoc, lacks clear measurement, and fails to distinguish opportunities from other conditions that contribute to protest. Others argue that the idea of “expanding opportunities” needs to be balanced by consideration of political threats. An annual time‐series approach is used to examine the frequency of African‐American protest in the United States from 1948 to 1997. Evidence of expanding opportunities created by divided government, strong northern Democratic Party allies, and, during the 1950s, Republican presidential incumbents responding to Cold War foreign policy constraints is found. African‐American congressional representation provides routine political access, which reduces protest. The evidence also supports explanations based on collective grievances stemming from black/white income inequality, Vietnam War deaths, and low‐to‐middle black unemployment.

Mapping Mass Political Conflict and Civil Society

Mass political conflict is typically examined in terms of violence and in isolation from routine civil interactions. The authors argue that mass conflict is multidimensional and that violence should be treated as an outcome of conflict, as well as a form of action. They define three dimensions of conflict—contentiousness, coerciveness, and change goals—and indices of the civil society that are central to mapping global trends in mass conflict. A strategy for mapping mass conflict and civil interactions using the PANDA protocol to generate highly reliable event data is outlined, and these indices are used to trace two democratic transitions (in Poland and South Korea), a conflict crisis that was repressed (China), and a conflict escalation that flared into a civil war (the former Yugoslavia). Automation has major advantages over human coding in terms of transparency, integration with existing event data series, real-time availability, and long-term maintenance costs. It also opens new ways of thinking about event data and the assessment of reliability.

The Political Origins of African Military Coups: Ethnic Competition, Military Centrality, and the Struggle over the Postcolonial State

Military interventions are strategic in understanding “who gets what, when, and how” in postcolonial Africa. Building on past structural explanations of African coups, we examine two waves of military interventions and different types of coup events, as well as the coup intensity index, the traditional focus of analysis. We find strong support for military centrality and theories of ethnic plurality and competition. There is little evidence of a participation “overload” or of the “social unrest” produced by economic dependency. The early independence coups were rooted in ethnic plurality and competition plus strong militaries; those in the 1970s were rooted in ethnic political competition. Plots had a strong ethnic basis, attempts were facilitated by multipartyism and mobilization levels, and successful seizures by strong militaries. Domestic conflicts played only a small role, and lagging growth, although destabilizing, could not be explained by dependency. Future work should focus on ethnic struggles inside the military as well as civilian governments, the political institutions that regulate these power struggles, and the prospects for an elite settlement that would regularize political competition, eliminating irregular means for acquiring power.

Three Strategies of State Economic Development: Entrepreneurial, Industrial Recruitment, and Deregulation Policies in the American States

State governments have adopted a wide variety of policies to promote economic development over the past two decades. There has been little progress, however in developing a clear conceptualization of the general strategies that underlie these programs or in assessing their impact on economic growth. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the authors examine a wide range of these policies, finding evidence of three general approaches: (1) an entrepreneurial approach focusing on new firm and technology development; (2) an industrial recruitment strategy emphasizing financial incentives for the relocation or expansion of existing enterprises; and (3) a deregulation approach that minimizes governmental control over private enterprise. These policies are modestly associated with particular regions of the United States. The entrepreneurial strategy appears to boost new business incorporations, and the recruitment approach reduces business failures. The results complement and extend other attempts to measure state economic development strategy.

Class forces, political institutions, and state intervention : Subnational economic development policy in the United States, 1971-1990

The United States has experienced a major devolution of social and economic policy responsibilities to the states. Subnational industrial policies to create jobs and qualitative economic growth are key to this devolution. The authors examine the development of these policies in terms of (1) the articulation of class interests, (2) state‐level political institutions, (3) prior political legacies, (4) underlying production regimes, and (5) interactions of strong political institutions and class mobilization. An annual pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis of three state‐level economic development policies (entrepreneurial, industrial recruitment, and labor market regulation) shows that in addition to business power and strong state capacities, the political legacies of 1930s welfare policy innovations and mezocorporatist bargaining potential condition the effects of business power.

Conflict-Carrying Capacity, Political Crisis, and Reconstruction

The early warning of protracted political violence needs firm empirical footing in dynamic indicators of the political processes leading to political crises. This study provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of conflict-carrying capacity (or CCC) defined as the ability of political systems to regulate intense internal conflicts. CCC is indexed by the multiplicative interaction between the proportions of civil contention, state repression, and violence. The PANDA Project (1983-1994) is used to illustrate the usefulness of this CCC index in capturing system stability in an institutionalized democracy (the United States), a bureaucratic-authoritarian regime (Mexico), an institutionalized Communist regime (China), and a peaceful democratic transition (Poland). It provides early warning signals of civil war (Algeria, Sri Lanka) and moves toward political stability (Peru). Civil contention and state repression are not destabilizing per se. Rather it is the simultaneous combination of these with violent contention that leads to internal political crises and, alternatively, to political stabilization.

Explaining Military Coups D'État: Black Africa, 1957-1984

Military coups and related problems of political control in Third World countries present a major obstacle to economic and social development. We evaluate a synthetic theory of military coups derived from political development theory, military centrality arguments, several theories of ethnic antagonism, and economic dependency theory. Using data on military interventions in 33 Black African states between 1957 and 1984, we carry out a LISREL analysis of the structural propensity for military coups. Wefind strong support for modernization and competition theories of ethnic antagonisms, military centrality theory and aspects of dependency theory. Political development theory is not supported. Ethnic diversity and competition, military centrality, debt dependence, and political factionalism are major predictors of coup activity. Military centrality is, in turn, rooted in the same underlying structures. Ethnic dominance is a stabilizing force creating social integration and weakening opposition. Intractable conflicts rooted in ethnic competition and economic dependence appear to create a structural contextfor military coups and related instabilities.