Edward N. Muller

Inequality and Insurgency

Maldistribution of land in agrarian societies is commonly thought to be an important precondition of mass political violence and revolution. Others argue that because of the difficulty of mobilizing rural populations for political protest, land maldistribution is irrelevant except as part of an inegalitarian distribution of income nationwide. These rival inequality hypotheses have significant implications with respect to the kinds of reforms likely to reduce the potential for insurgency in a society. They are tested using the most comprehensive cross-national compilation of data currently available on land inequality, landlessness, and income inequality. Support is found for the argument that attributes the greater causal import to income inequality. Moreover, the effect of income inequality on political violence is found to hold in the context of a causal model that takes into account the repressiveness of the regime, governmental acts of coercion, intensity of separatism, and level of economic development.

Civic culture and democracy: the question of causal relationships

A causal model of relationships between structural properties of states, civic culture attitudes of the general public, and change in level of democracy is tested with cross-national data. The model permits inferences about the possibility of unidirectional or reciprocal causation between civic culture attitudes and democracy, controlling for macrosocietal variables such as economic development, income inequality, and subcultural pluralism. Most civic culture attitudes do not have any significant impact on change in democracy. One of them, interpersonal trust, appears clearly to be an effect rather than a cause of democracy. The exception is the percentage of the general public that prefers gradual reform of society instead of revolutionary change or intransigent defense of the status quo. Support for gradual reform has a positive impact on change in democracy, and it is unrelated to a countrys years of continuous democracy—findings that support the hypothesis of a unidirectional civic culture effect on democracy.

Cross-National Variation in Political Violence A Rational Action Approach

Propositions about determinants of political violence at the cross-national level are derived from rational action theory and tested across the entire population of independent states in the mid-1970s. The data support two rational action hypotheses: Rates of domestic political violence are higher at intermediate levels of both regime repressiveness and negative sanctions than at either low or high levels of these indicators of institutionalized and behavioral coercion. Two hypotheses that can be interpreted within either a rational action or a deprivation framework also are supported: High rates of economic growth reduce the incidence of political violence, and potential separatism increases the incidence of violence. A deprivation hypothesis that high life expectancy reduces the incidence of political violence is not supported. Overall, this set of findings favors a rational action rather than a deprivation approach to explaining why nations differ in rates of political violence.

RATIONAL CHOICE AND REBELLIOUS COLLECTIVE ACTION

A basic problem for a rational choice theory of rebellious collective action is to explain why average citizens would participate in such behavior, since they have nothing to gain (they will receive benefits of successful rebellion, in terms of public goods, regardless of whether they take part or not), but much to lose (rebellious behavior may be quite costly). According to the conventional private interest or “by-product” theory, the incentive to participate must come from the expectation of receiving selective benefits; but since average citizens in a general case cannot expect substantial private material rewards, the relevant selective benefits must be psychological in nature. In contrast to the model of private interest theory, a public goods model is proposed, stipulating that the value of rebellion in terms of public goods can be a relevant incentive for participation. Using data from surveys conducted in New York City and Hamburg, West Germany, we investigate the relationship between participation in rebellious political behavior and measures of the incentives of public goods and private interest. The results do not support predictions of the private interest model in regard to nonmaterial selective incentives. Hypotheses of the public goods model are supported.

Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action

We propose two models to explain why individuals participate in collective political action—a personal influence model and a collective rationality model. Each model overcomes the free-rider problem posed by conventional rational choice theory and left unresolved in previous research. The models are tested for legal and illegal protest behaviors, using data from a national sample and two samples of protest-prone communities in the Federal Republic of Germany. The personal influence model is supported for both forms of participation, while the collective rationality model is supported for legal protest. We discuss implications of the results for grievance and rational choice theories of collective political action.

On the Meaning of Political Support

The incumbent vs. system affect distinction is basic in the conceptualization of political support. It is based on the premise that system affect is a more important antecedent of aggressive political behavior than incumbent affect. The data reported here show that it is possible to distinguish incumbent from system affect empirically, and also theoretically important to make the incumbent-system distinction. Measures especially sensitive to incumbent affect correlate differently with ideology than does a measure especially sensitive to system affect. Byvariate correlations between measures of incumbent affect and a measure of aggressive political behavior are shown to be either spurious or indirect, due to the fact that incumbent affect is correlated with what appears to be a more powerful and direct antecedent of aggressive political behavior, namely, system affect. The theory behind the incumbent-system distinction is expressed in four propositions. In general, the data conform to it, but each prediction is qualified according to whether ideology and community context are inhibitory or facilitative.

Economic Crisis, Incumbent Performance and Regime Support: A Comparison of Longitudinal Data from West Germany and Costa Rica

While much is known about the effects of the economy on the popularity and electoral fortunes of political leaders, political scientists know very little about how economic decline and political performance influence support for the political regime and the stability of democratic systems. We use three cross-national longitudinal surveys to address this issue: two collected in Costa Rica in the midst of a severe economic crisis in the late 1970s and early 1980s; and one in West Germany during the recession of the mid-1970s. We show that in both countries, overall support for the political regime remained extremely high during the economic decline, while satisfaction with incumbent performance fluctuated much more sharply. Moreover, at the individual level, changes in satisfaction with incumbent performance were only weakly related to changes in regime support. These results provide strong evidence suggesting that if democracies enter economic downturns with initially high levels of regime support, they will be able to withstand even severe, prolonged crises of economic performance.

Democratic Stability and Economic Crisis: Costa Rica, 1978–1983

This article explores the relationship between economics and politics by examining the impact of economic crisis on democratic stability. It attempts to test the thesis proposed by Seymour Martin Lipset that economic crisis is not directly linked to political stability but is mediated through two fundamental components of the political culture: effectiveness and legitimacy. Previous empirical research on this hypothesis has been limited by four interrelated factors outlined in the article. The study overcomes these limitations by using a refined measure of legitimacy (called “political support-alienation”) and focusing on Costa Rica, a country that has experienced a severe economic crisis but has nonetheless maintained democratic stability. The article reviews the historical process of building democracy in Costa Rica, describes the nature of the economic crisis, and traces its impact with a series of cross-section surveys.

Land Inequality and Political Violence

Considerable research effort has been invested in establishing the appropriate relationship between patterns of land distribution and political violence. In an article in the June 1988 issue of the Review, Manus I. Midlarsky proposed and tested a new measure of the distribution of land, which he called “patterned inequality.” He presented supporting evidence with data from Latin American and Middle Eastern countries. In this controversy, Midlarskys analysis is challenged by Edward N. Mutter, Mitchell A. Seligson, and Hung-der Fu. They advocate an alternative measure of land inequality, test its effect on levels of political violence in Latin America, and find it wanting. In his rejoinder, Midlarsky offers new analytical support for his claims.

Dependent Economic Development, Aid Dependence on the United States, and Democratic Breakdown in the Third World

The relationship between two kinds of dependency linkages and the stability of developing democracies is investigated in global perspective utilizing quantitative cross-national statistical analysis considered in the context of descriptive historical information. Hypotheses that explain breakdowns of democracy in developing countries as a result of the process of dependent economic development are not supported. A quite strong inverse time-lagged association is observed between aid dependence on the United States- especially in regard to military aid-and the stability of democratic regimes in the Third World. This correlation is interpreted as reflecting in large part the influence of the aggressive Cold War containment doctrine espoused by theJohnson and Nixon administrations, which encouraged preemptive authoritarian regime transformation in the interest of maintaining stable pro-American, anti-Communist governments in Third World democracies that were of strategic geopolitical value to the United States. The belief that a liberal dosage of economic development constitutes an effiective prescription for democratic political stability is a premise of modernization theory once considered to be virtually a general law of comparative politics. After all, economic development is economic development, regardless of geography, and if this formula had produced stable democracy in the early-developing countries of the North, why should it not be equally applicable to the late-developing countries of the South?