Edward Shinnick

Measuring Irish housing quality

Reviews the development of Irish housing policy from the eighteenth century to the present. Emphasizes the importance of measuring quality in housing, where housing may be described by a vector of measured characteristics. Undertakes a detailed price determination of these various characteristics using a hedonic model. Explains observed house prices in terms of the various housing characteristics using a hedonic model, from which a set of implicit or “hedonic” prices emerges. Reviews the theoretical basis of such an approach and develops a model specifically for aggregated data, as other studies in this area used disaggregated models. Obtains quantitative estimates of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the housing bundle before and after a series of model transformations. The results indicate the premium associated with certain housing characteristics. They emphasize, in particular, the importance of floor area and location in determining new Irish estate house prices.

Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

Irelands private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

Real economic activity leading indicators: should we have paid more attention?

The ability to predict business cycle activity is an invaluable skill for governments and policy makers alike, especially before an economy enters a downturn. We analyse causality relationships between key leading economic indicators and economic growth for three countries from 1970 to 2010. We find that while many indicators do not help explain current movements in GDP growth, lags of these indicators do. In addition, the direction of the change and the size of the change in the lagged economic indicators are very important in many cases. This is particularly true for housing indicators.