Eiichi Endo

Evaluation of Relationship between Demand Side Management and Future Generation Mix by Energy System Analysis

Demand side management is an important part of the smart grid for alleviating the uncertainty in renewable energy generation including such as wind power generation and photovoltaic generation. The nuclear accident caused by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake forced a re-evaluation of the future power generation system in Japan. As a result, demand side management has become critical for future Japanese power systems with its large integration of renewable energy sources, and the evaluation of the impacts of this management is needed for planning purposes. This paper proposes a new energy system model that expands the function of MARKAL (Market Allocation) and considers the characteristics of the total power system in more detail. The relationship between demand side management and the future power generation mix was evaluated using energy system analysis as part of the proposed model. The electric water heaters and heat pump water heaters are conceived as the controllable loads in the demand side management.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of R&D on solar cells in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to validate plan of R&D on solar cells in the (New-) Sunshine Program of Japan by using cost-effectiveness analysis and to demonstrate usefulness of the analysis for R&D planning. Based on the analysis, R&D goals and/or allocation of R&D expenditure of multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) might not be appropriate after FY1996. And R&D expenditure for solar cells might be decided without forecasting increase of the mc-Si solar cell production by the subsidization programs.

Resource allocation model for planning R&D on solar cells

R&D planning is important for promoting R&D effectively and efficiently. The authors formulate planning of R&D on solar cells as an optimal resource allocation problem by using mathematical programming. The optimal resource allocation model based on this formulation includes technological progress submodels of solar cells and production and market submodels of solar cells. This model is expected not only to make clear the validity of R&D strategy on solar cells in the past, but also to give us the optimal plan of R&D on solar cells in the future.

Cost-effectivess of subsidization to photovoltaics in Japan from the viewpoint of carbon dioxide emission reduction

Publisher Summary This chapter analyzes the cost-effectiveness of subsidies to photovoltaics (PV) in Japan through an electricity buy-back program from reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions point of view. For this analysis, the energy system of Japan is modeled using MARKAL, which is one of the energy system model based on multi-objective linear programming. With national PV capacity targets in mind and an assumed carbon tax, PV system sales price and electricity buy-back rates necessary to make PV cost-competitive with other energy technologies is estimated. The results show that, under the expected carbon tax of 6000 JPY/t-C, PV require continuous subsidies via buy-backs even if both fuel savings and green credit are taken into account. Annual revenue of the assumed carbon tax is sufficient to finance the estimated total annual subsidy. Estimated cost-effectiveness of the subsidy ranges from about 33000 JPY/t-C in around 2020 to zero in 2030. It is anticipated that the analysis will provide decision making support for prioritizing and optimizing subsidies to new energy technologies.

Influence of resource allocation in the photovoltaic R&D of Japan based on technology stock modeling

In Japan, crystalline silicon solar cells have a large market share in production, however they have not been a priority in R&D. This paper analyzes the influence of resource allocation in the photovoltaic (PV) R&D in Japan on the price of solar cells and the market share in world solar cell production. Firstly, it finds that the price of solar cells in Japan, with respect to the resource allocation in R&D of crystalline silicon solar cells, did not reduce significantly but maintained a constant level. For the projection, it does not use an experience curve, but models technological progress and price reduction of solar cells in Japan, excluding mass production effects, based on technological knowledge stock modeling. Secondly, solar cell prices in other countries are estimated based on their market share of the worlds solar cell production. The estimated solar cell price in Japan is reduced by up to 40% from the actual price, and is competitive to the estimated solar cell prices in China and Taiwan. In this case, Japan could maintain its high share in the world solar cell production for a few years longer. This analysis will contribute to cost-effective R&D resource allocation by a simulation approach.