Koji Tokimatsu

Measuring sustainable development for the future with climate change mitigation; a case study of applying an integrated assessment model under IPCC SRES scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described mainstreaming climate change mitigation into development choices in its Fourth Assessment Report, chapter 12 of Working Group III. It also pointed out that “few macro-indicators include measures of progress with respect to climate change” despite the needs for the inclusion. This paper tackled this point in the following ways by applying an integrated assessment model. First, this study applied shadow prices and production, endogenously obtained from the model, instead of using market prices and statistical data used in preceding studies in the economics literature. Second, this study measured forecasts of genuine saving (GS) and wealth globally up to the year 2100, while preceding studies were constrained to past and current savings and wealth. Third, this study examined changes in GS and wealth in different future scenarios on IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) with CO2 emissions constraints. Finally, the authors adopted a GS estimation methodology of shadow prices in imperfect economies by Kenneth Arrow and Partha Dasgupta, instead of that of perfect economies by Kirk Hamilton et al., on which the authors had based previous studies. This makes the indicator consistent with changes of wealth.

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

ABSTRACT We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.

Development of human health damage factors related to CO2 emissions by considering future socioeconomic scenarios

PurposeGlobal warming is exerting a damaging effect on human health. This damage is not only influenced by future climate conditions but also projected economic development and population growth. That being said, there are no health damage factors related to CO2 emissions which take into account future socioeconomic scenarios in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Thus, the purpose of the current research is to calculate human health damage factors based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).MethodsThe procedure used to calculate the SRES-based damage factors is as follows. First, a framework was developed to calculate damage factors based on multiple parameters: rise in temperature, relative risk increase, mortality rate increase, rise in number of deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) increase. Secondly, these parameters were calculated for each individual SRES based on the relationship among the parameters and CO2 emissions, GDP, and population values of each scenario. Finally, the damage factor for each SRES was calculated by multiplying all the parameters that had been calculated based on the CO2 emission, GDP, and population data in the corresponding scenarios.Results and discussionUsing this method, the human health damage factors for four SRESs (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) were calculated. The damage factors consisted of six different items: malaria, diarrhea, cardiovascular disease, malnutrition, coastal flooding, and inland flooding. The calculated results by scenario were 2.0u2009×u200910−7, 6.2u2009×u200910−7, 2.1u2009×u200910−7, and 4.2u2009×u200910−7xa0DALY/kg CO2, respectively. The damage caused by malnutrition is the greatest, followed by diarrhea. Regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East showed the highest damages due to their high damage from malnutrition and diarrhea. With regard to the differences among the four damage factors, the difference between the projected future mortality rate and DALY per death based on the future GDP per capita is greater than the difference between the increases in temperature among scenarios dependent on future CO2 emission.ConclusionsThe human health damage factors related to CO2 emissions for four SRESs were estimated. As a result of differences between future socioeconomic scenarios, the largest amount of damage per CO2 emission unit was three times greater than the smallest amount. Therefore, sensitive analysis is highly recommended when seeking to compare damage caused by global warming and other impact categories.

Measuring future paths of alternative sustainability indicators: an assessment of IPCC SRES scenarios

This study measures various indicators for sustainability in this century for four scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a comparable assessment of the scenarios. We assessed the scenarios using a model of Ramsey-type mainframe with cost models for fuel and non-fuel mineral resources, biomass and foods, and an environmental externality. The existing studies have not assessed these SRES scenarios for sustainability, but only for climate change and its policy under the scenarios using CO2 emissions and shadow prices as indicators. The significant contributions of this paper are an assessment of the scenarios using the measured future paths of various sustainability indicators and revealing that the SRES-B1 scenario is the most favorable from a sustainability perspective. The findings of this study contribute to further empirical analysis of the economics of sustainability and climate policy assessments.

An Integrated Assessment by Models for Energy Systems Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment with a Case Study of Advanced Fossil-Fired Power Plants in China

We developed an integrated assessment (IA) using models for energy systems analysis and life-cycle assessment (LCA). Based on this assessment framework, we developed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) case studies for a hypothetical project designed to introduce advanced fossil-fired power generation technologies in China. Our MARKAL model for Japan confirmed that radical reductions (i.e., 80xa0% by 2050) of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be attained from energy systems alone and that credit for emission allowances was required. We evaluated life-cycle costs and emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen oxide gases for the energy technologies using an LCA model. Further, we applied a power generation planning model for six Chinese grids to provide a power mix structure, potentially producing credit by installing fossil-fired power generation technology and by using baseline grid emission factors with an average cost of electricity. Finally, by using dynamic emission reductions and additional costs from the two models, we conducted case studies of CBA for a hypothetical project to install the technologies in China. This was accomplished by evaluating emission reductions in monetary terms and by applying a life-cycle impact assessment model. A unique feature of our IA is its dynamic (time-varying) assessment of costs and benefits.

Sustainability and the measurement of future paths in genuine savings: case studies

This paper extrapolates future paths of genuine savings (GS) by using our integrated assessment model. The results with the base case (BC) indicate that both GS without population change (GS) and GS with population change (GSn) are almost positive in OECD countries in the twenty-first century (satisfying the necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability); those numbers are projected to be negative in 2100. Asia (ASIA), the Middle East and Africa (MEAF), the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSEE), and the world show upward trends for both values, showing negative signs in 2010 and positive signs after 2050 (in ASIA, MEAF, and the world) and in 2100 (in FSEE). The values in Latin America (LAMR) remain negative throughout. We examine additional following three cases: demand reduction (DR), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction (CR), and population reduction (PR). The GSn results compared to the BC indicate that (1) GSn in DR is similar to that of BC, (2) GSn in PR is slightly higher than that of BC, and (3) GSn in CR is unexpectedly lower than that of BC. This GSn reduction in the CR case derives from the fact that the term for calculating resource depletion (especially resource rent, which equals the difference between price and cost) in GS and GSn increased, leading to a greater term being subtracted from gross savings. The resource price increases with the marginal price of natural gas, given the energy-source shift in reducing CO2 emissions, from cheap coal to expensive natural gas.

- Potential Evaluation of CO 2 Emissions Reduction by CDM Projects—Project Design to Provide Benefit to Both Developed and Developing Countries

Publisher Summary The clean development mechanism (CDM) is well known as a part of the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol, and is an incentive to transfer technologies from developed countries to developing countries. The promotion of CDM projects is recommended because technology transfers by using CDM, etc., are expected to cost-effectively reduce CO2 emissions and to also contribute to sustainable development in developing countries. CDM contributes not only to the cost-effective achievement of CO2 emissions reduction target of developed countries, but also to sustainable development in developing countries. For the purpose of promoting CDM projects, flexible frameworks have been suggested for the distribution of benefits produced by implementing the projects to adjust unbalanced benefit distributions among the investor and host countries. One of the suggested flexibilities is to let the gross economic profit, all of which is conventionally considered to be given to the developing side country, be partly returned to the developed side country; another is to let the investment be shared between both sides. Through cost-benefit evaluations of the projects of installing combined cycle power generation and cogeneration plants in China as example case studies, it has been verified that the application of these flexibilities heightens the possibilities for the projects to be compatible with CDM under the uncertainties of economic conditions—for example, economic value of the certified CO2 emission reduction. Because there is a huge potential of CO2 emissions reduction due to technology transfers from developed countries to developing countries, the promotion of implementing CDM projects is highly recommended to accelerate the technology transfers.

Evaluation of benefits of CO2 ocean sequestration

Publisher Summary The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the benefits of CO2 ocean sequestration for mitigation of global warming. “Benefit” here means reduced economic damage from global warming due to implementing sequestration. From the start of implementation of ocean sequestration, the rate of increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is lowered compared to that if the technology is not adopted. This in turn begins to reduce the global mean temperature. This lowering of the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and reducing of global mean temperature continue after completion of sequestration. This results in lowering of the peak values reached by both atmospheric CO2 concentration and the global mean temperature rise, mitigating economic damage induced by global warming. A novel method is proposed to calculate the benefit of CO2 ocean sequestration, which is expressed in dollars per ton of carbon sequestered. CO2 ocean sequestration is simulated by means of a simple atmosphere-ocean-land box model that accounts for the principal biogeochemical processes that control the global carbon cycle. Three scenarios are considered to reduce future atmospheric CO2 concentrations from business-as-usual forecasts to CO2 double stabilization. Atmospheric CO2 concentration and the increase in global mean temperature are simulated in cases with and without sequestration. The benefit is the difference between damage with and without sequestration. The result is that the benefit of CO2 ocean sequestration some hundreds of years in the future ranges from several hundreds to thousands of dollars per ton of carbon, well exceeding present-day estimated costs.

Evaluation of co2 Capture Technology Developments by Use of Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

Publisher Summary This chapter describes analyses which were made, using Graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), to evaluate R&D (research and development) processes of several CO2 capture technologies having different levels of energy efficiency. Five types of the technologies are studied for evaluation: chemical absorption, physical adsorption, membrane separation, O2/CO2 recirculation boiler, and integrated hydrogen separation gas turbine technologies. Various kinds of CO2 capture technologies applicable for thermal power plants have been investigated which are expected to be commercially operated within 20-30 years, when CO2 sequestration will be an acceptable option to mitigate CO2 emissions. Their development requires a wide range of elemental technologies and also require huge amounts of R&D (research and development) investment. Thus, evaluation of R&D processes is of great importance.