Ekrem Karakoç

Ethnicity and Trust in National and International Institutions: Kurdish Attitudes toward Political Institutions in Turkey

As political trust literature has focused on its political and economical determinants, the linkage between ethnicity and trust in domestic and international institutions has been largely overlooked with a few notable exceptions. This study aims to underline this linkage and offer several hypotheses to test them in Turkish context. Using the European Social Survey conducted in 2008, this study finds that, though Kurds have low levels of trust in domestic institutions, their distrust is not uniform across all institutions. Second, it finds that Kurds are pro-international institutions; that is, compared to Turks, they hold higher trust in international institutions. Finally, it finds that, contrary to the studies on the winner/loser debate in long-standing democracies, winners in general and Kurdish winners, those who voted for the Justice and Development Party, the winning party in the 2007 election—are not distinguishable in their level of trust in political institutions from the rest of society.

Religion in Politics How Does Inequality Affect Public Secularization

This study investigates the factors that affect variations in secular attitudes toward politics. The literature suggests that modernization may weaken traditional bonds with religious adherence and the state can assume an important role in this endeavor through mass education, industrialization, and other factors. However, this explanation is incomplete in light of the resurgence of religious movements. This study argues that economic inequality increases the positive evaluation of the role of religion in politics through its effect on religiosity and participation in religious organizations. Employing a multilevel analysis on 40 countries, this study demonstrates that inequality decreases attitudes toward support for two dimensions of public secularization: the secularization of public office holders and the influence of religious leaders in politics. Simultaneously, the effect of modernization on these attitudes varies. The results also suggest that although inequality diminishes secular attitudes of all socioeconomic groups, its effect is nonlinear, with a greater effect on the poor.

Which matters more in the electoral success of Islamist (successor) parties – religion or performance? The Turkish case

Does the electoral success of Islamist parties depend on the support of religious voters or does it owe as much or more to their performance in dealing with key political and economic issues? The repeated electoral success of an Islamist-rooted party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey, provides an important opportunity to answer this question. Using a nation-wide survey conducted in 2011 in Turkey, our findings suggest that in addition to religiosity the party’s performance with respect to social services, the economy and democracy were determining factors in the AKP’s success. We also found that the popularity of political leaders has an independent effect on party preference. We discuss similar tendencies in the aftermath of the Arab Spring elections where the Islamist parties emerged as the major winners.

Minorities in the Middle East Ethnicity, Religion, and Support for Authoritarianism

Under what conditions do minorities in the Middle East participate in authoritarian coalitions? Research on authoritarian resilience in the Middle East has been largely silent on linguistic and religious minorities’ preferences over regime types. Here, we examine whether minorities differ in their support for authoritarianism from the majority groups in four Middle Eastern states. We argue that minorities whose status is threatened by a transition to majoritarian decision-making institutions are less likely to be supportive of democratization. We examine how different cleavages affect the preferences of minorities over regime type and identify three historical legacies in the Middle East that have shaped these cleavages: the Ottoman-Islamic legacy of minority accommodation, the ethnic class structure that emerged as a result of the region’s integration to world markets in the nineteenth century, and a post-independence pattern of authoritarian secularism. Based on survey research and a comparison of minorities in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan, we find that linguistic minorities tend to be less supportive of authoritarianism while religious minorities tend to be more supportive of authoritarianism.

Economic inequality and its asymmetric effect on civic engagement: evidence from post-communist countries

The global increase in inequality raises concerns among scholars and policy-makers. However, limited evidence exists to identify how inequality affects citizens’ behavior. This study explores the effects of economic inequality on participation in civil society associations by testing hypotheses derived from resource and conflict theories. Using a multilevel Poisson model in 18 post-communist countries, this study finds that inequality has a nonlinear effect on civil society. Economic inequality has a drastically demobilizing effect on associational participation in countries with lower income inequality; meanwhile high inequality has a slightly weak mobilizing effect on associational participation. Further tests show that the effect of inequality varies across different socioeconomic groups, but that the poor are most affected.

Inter-ethnic (In)tolerance between Turks and Kurds: Implications for Turkish Democratisation

Abstract Using public opinion survey data, this study investigates the determinants of inter-ethnic (in)tolerance among Turks and Kurds in Turkey. Our empirical analyses show that, compared with Turks, Kurds have a relatively higher level of tolerance towards the ethnic out-group. Our findings also suggest that different dynamics and factors mould Turks’ and Kurds’ tolerance towards ethnic out-group members. Religiosity, (ethno)nationalist orientations, inter-ethnic contact, threat perception and economic factors are the most consistent variables shaping Turks’ tolerance towards Kurds. In contrast, religion-related factors and inter-ethnic social contact do not have a statistically significant effect on Kurds’ tolerance towards Turks. (Ethno)nationalist orientations, however, appear to reduce Kurds’ tolerance.

Emigration and the diffusion of political Salafism: Religious remittances and support for Salafi parties in Egypt during the Arab Spring

This study investigates the impact of emigration on the political behavior of citizens in Egypt. In particular, it argues that emigrants’ family members are more likely to vote for Salafi parties for several reasons, including the transfer of religious remittances by Egyptian emigrants to the Gulf and the influence of transnational Salafi networks. In order to test our argument, we conducted an original public opinion survey with around 1100 individuals between January 12, 2012 and January 25, 2012, just after the Egyptian parliamentary election. We find that individuals with family members who had emigrated to the Gulf voted heavily for Islamist parties, particularly the Freedom and Justice Party and the Nour Party. Further analysis shows that there is no statistical difference between individuals with and without emigrant family members in voting for the Muslim Brotherhood, while the Nour’s popularity among voters with emigrant family members is substantial and statistically significant. In particular, we find that the strongest support for the Nour came from individuals whose family members had immigrated to Saudi Arabia, whereas those whose family members had immigrated to other countries, including other Gulf countries, do not differ significantly from non-emigrant family members in their party preferences.

The perils of semi-presidentialism: Confidence in political institutions in contemporary democracies:

The degree to which citizens perceive democratic political institutions as trustworthy indicates how well these institutions translate the citizenry’s interests into public policy and how effective and accountable they are seen to be. Low levels of public confidence in political institutions are an indicator of various political problems and are likely to raise concerns over democratic governance. Recent findings that trust in major political institutions has fallen over the last quarter of a century in many democracies have led scholars to examine individual and institutional factors associated with political confidence. Aiming to contribute to this burgeoning literature, this study investigates the impact of semi-presidentialism on public confidence in two major political institutions: the government and parliament. Testing our arguments in 29 democracies through a multilevel analysis, we have found that, compared to presidential and parliamentary systems, semi-presidentialism often generates dual-legitimacy problems, thereby reducing confidence in both government and parliament.

Assessments of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East During the Arab Uprisings

Abstract Using original public-opinion polls and elite interviews conducted in 2012, this article analyzes the perceptions of Turkish foreign policy regarding the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian conflict in three Middle Eastern countries, Egypt, Iraq and Iran. It finds that ethnic, sectarian and religious groups in these three countries vary significantly in their views on Turkish foreign policy regarding both the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian conflict, although the same identity-related factors have a less salient effect at the elite level. The findings also suggest that the intersection of ethnicity and sect shapes peoples attitudes toward Turkish foreign policy in Iran and Iraq. Sunnis, except for Kurds in Iran and Iraq, tend to have a positive view of Turkish foreign policy, while Shia Turkomans in Iraq tend to have a negative one.