Elaine F. Walker

Prediction of Psychosis in Youth at High Clinical Risk: A Multisite Longitudinal Study in North America

CONTEXT Early detection and prospective evaluation of individuals who will develop schizophrenia or other psychotic disorders are critical to efforts to isolate mechanisms underlying psychosis onset and to the testing of preventive interventions, but existing risk prediction approaches have achieved only modest predictive accuracy. OBJECTIVES To determine the risk of conversion to psychosis and to evaluate a set of prediction algorithms maximizing positive predictive power in a clinical high-risk sample. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal study with a 2 1/2-year follow-up of 291 prospectively identified treatment-seeking patients meeting Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes criteria. The patients were recruited and underwent evaluation across 8 clinical research centers as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Time to conversion to a fully psychotic form of mental illness. RESULTS The risk of conversion to psychosis was 35%, with a decelerating rate of transition during the 2 1/2-year follow-up. Five features assessed at baseline contributed uniquely to the prediction of psychosis: a genetic risk for schizophrenia with recent deterioration in functioning, higher levels of unusual thought content, higher levels of suspicion/paranoia, greater social impairment, and a history of substance abuse. Prediction algorithms combining 2 or 3 of these variables resulted in dramatic increases in positive predictive power (ie, 68%-80%) compared with the prodromal criteria alone. CONCLUSIONS These findings demonstrate that prospective ascertainment of individuals at risk for psychosis is feasible, with a level of predictive accuracy comparable to that in other areas of preventive medicine. They provide a benchmark for the rate and shape of the psychosis risk function against which standardized preventive intervention programs can be compared.

Stress and the Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal Axis in the Developmental Course of Schizophrenia

Diathesis-stress models of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders have dominated theorizing about etiology for over three decades. More recently, with advances in our understanding of the biological processes mediating the effects of stress, these models have incorporated mechanisms to account for the adverse impact of stress on brain function. This review examines recent scientific findings on the role of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, one of the primary neural systems triggered by stress exposure, in the expression of vulnerability for schizophrenia. The results indicate that psychotic disorders are associated with elevated baseline and challenge-induced HPA activity, that antipsychotic medications reduce HPA activation, and that agents that augment stress hormone (cortisol) release exacerbate psychotic symptoms. The cumulative findings are discussed in light of a neural diathesis-stress model that postulates that cortisol has the potential to increase activity of dopamine pathways that have been implicated in schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders.

At Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Outcome for Nonconverters

OBJECTIVE A major focus of early intervention research is determining the risk of conversion to psychosis and developing optimal algorithms of prediction. Although reported rates of nonconversion vary in the literature, the nonconversion rate always encompasses a majority (50%-85%) of the sample participants. Less is known about the outcome among this group, referred to as false positive individuals. METHOD A longitudinal study was conducted of more than 300 prospectively identified treatment-seeking individuals meeting criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Participants were recruited and evaluated across eight clinical research centers as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Over a 2.5-year follow-up assessment period, 214 (71%) participants had not made the transition to psychosis. RESULTS The sample examined included 111 individuals who had at least 1 year of follow-up data available and did not transition to psychosis within the study duration. In year 1, there was significant improvement in ratings for attenuated positive and negative symptoms. However, at least one attenuated positive symptom was still present for 43% of the sample at 1 year and for 41% at 2 years. At the follow-up timepoints, social and role functioning were significantly poorer in the clinical sample relative to nonpsychiatric comparison subjects. CONCLUSIONS Help-seeking individuals who meet prodromal criteria appear to represent those who are truly at risk for psychosis and are showing the first signs of illness, those who remit in terms of the symptoms used to index clinical high-risk status, and those who continue to have attenuated positive symptoms.

Progressive Reduction in Cortical Thickness as Psychosis Develops: A Multisite Longitudinal Neuroimaging Study of Youth at Elevated Clinical Risk

BACKGROUND Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) who progress to fully psychotic symptoms have been observed to show a steeper rate of cortical gray matter reduction compared with individuals without symptomatic progression and with healthy control subjects. Whether such changes reflect processes associated with the pathophysiology of schizophrenia or exposure to antipsychotic drugs is unknown. METHODS In this multisite study, 274 CHR cases, including 35 individuals who converted to psychosis, and 135 healthy comparison subjects were scanned with magnetic resonance imaging at baseline, 12-month follow-up, or the point of conversion for the subjects who developed fully psychotic symptoms. RESULTS In a traveling subjects substudy, excellent reliability was observed for measures of cortical thickness and subcortical volumes. Controlling for multiple comparisons throughout the brain, CHR subjects who converted to psychosis showed a steeper rate of gray matter loss in the right superior frontal, middle frontal, and medial orbitofrontal cortical regions as well as a greater rate of expansion of the third ventricle compared with CHR subjects who did not convert to psychosis and healthy control subjects. Differential tissue loss was present in subjects who had not received antipsychotic medications during the interscan interval and was predicted by baseline levels of an aggregate measure of proinflammatory cytokines in plasma. CONCLUSIONS These findings demonstrate that the brain changes are not explained by exposure to antipsychotic drugs but likely play a role in psychosis pathophysiology. Given that the cortical changes were more pronounced in subjects with briefer durations of prodromal symptoms, contributing factors may predominantly play a role in acute-onset forms of psychosis.

Cognitive functioning, cortisol release, and symptom severity in patients with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND There is substantial evidence of dysregulation of cortisol secretion, hippocampal abnormalities, and memory deficits in schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders. Research also suggests that cortisol secretion augments dopaminergic activity, which may result in increased symptom expression in this clinical population. METHODS We examined the relations among cortisol release, cognitive performance, and psychotic symptomatology. Subjects were 18 adults with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, seven with a nonpsychotic psychiatric disorder, and 15 normal control subjects. Tests of memory and executive function were administered. Cortisol was assayed from multiple saliva samples. RESULTS Findings indicated the following: 1) patients with psychotic disorders scored below the comparison groups on the cognitive measures; 2) for the entire sample, cortisol levels were inversely correlated with performance on memory and frontal tasks; and 3) among patients, cortisol levels were positively correlated with ratings of positive, disorganized, and overall symptom severity, but not with negative symptoms. CONCLUSIONS The present results suggest that abnormalities in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and hippocampal systems play a role in observed cognitive deficits across populations. Among psychotic patients, elevated cortisol secretion is linked with greater symptom severity.

Maternal depression and infant cortisol: influences of timing, comorbidity and treatment

BACKGROUND The current study examines the relationship between maternal depression and infant cortisol concentrations. The potential roles of comorbid maternal anxiety disorders, timing of maternal depression, and maternal treatment with psychotropic medications during pregnancy are addressed. METHODS Women with 6-month-old infants (105 boys and 84 girls) participated in a laboratory paradigm that included infant saliva collection at six points, noise burst and arm restraint stressor tasks, and a diagnostic interview of the mother. RESULTS Lifetime history of maternal depression was associated with increased baseline and mean (average) infant cortisol levels. Comorbidity with anxiety disorder was related to infant cortisol reactivity. Peripartum (prepartum and/or postpartum) maternal depression, rather than a pre-pregnancy history of disorder, was associated with higher infant cortisol reactivity. Prenatal and postnatal exposure to maternal disorder had similar effects, but prenatal maternal psychotropic medication treatment appeared to attenuate infant cortisol increases associated with prenatal maternal disorder exposure. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that exposure to maternal depression and anxiety during pregnancy and the postpartum period may increase infant salivary cortisol. This maternal depression-infant cortisol association is independent of the effects of delivery complications, and appears to be modulated by prenatal maternal psychotropic treatment.

Developmental changes in cortisol secretion in normal and at-risk youth.

Adolescence is associated with an increase in the rate of certain psychiatric symptoms, and it is typically the developmental period when prodromal features of the major psychiatric disorders emerge. This is especially true of schizophrenia, with the majority of patients showing a marked postpubertal rise in schizotypal signs that predates the onset of clinical symptoms in early adulthood. Cross-sectional studies of youth have revealed a positive correlation between age and saliva cortisol level, suggesting a normative maturational increase in activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. It has been hypothesized that this increase may trigger the expression of symptoms in vulnerable individuals. The present longitudinal study measured cortisol secretion and its relation with symptom development in samples of youth with schizotypal personality disorder (SPD), other personality disorders, or no Axis II disorder. The findings indicate moderate stability in cortisol levels across a 2-year period, with a longitudinal increase in cortisol levels over time. Cortisol levels at the first and second assessments were correlated with the severity of SPD symptoms at follow-up. The results are consistent with the notion that the HPA axis undergoes a postpubertal maturational process that moderates the expression of psychiatric symptoms.

Association of Pre-Onset Cannabis, Alcohol, and Tobacco Use With Age at Onset of Prodrome and Age at Onset of Psychosis in First-Episode Patients

OBJECTIVE Several reports suggest that cannabis use is associated with an earlier age at onset of psychosis, although not all studies have operationalized cannabis use as occurring prior to onset of symptoms. This study addressed whether pre-onset cannabis use, alcohol use, and tobacco use are associated with an earlier age at onset of prodromal and psychotic symptoms. Effects of the progression of frequency of use were examined through time-dependent covariates in survival analyses. METHOD First-episode patients (N=109) hospitalized in three public-sector inpatient psychiatric units underwent in-depth cross-sectional retrospective assessments. Prior substance use and ages at onset of prodromal and psychotic symptoms were determined by standardized methods, and analyses were conducted using Cox regression modeling. RESULTS Whereas classifying participants according to maximum frequency of use prior to onset (none, ever, weekly, or daily) revealed no significant effects of cannabis or tobacco use on risk of onset, analysis of change in frequency of use prior to onset indicated that progression to daily cannabis and tobacco use was associated with an increased risk of onset of psychotic symptoms. Similar or even stronger effects were observed when onset of illness or prodromal symptoms was the outcome. A gender-by-daily-cannabis-use interaction was observed; progression to daily use resulted in a much larger increased relative risk of onset of psychosis in females than in males. CONCLUSIONS Pre-onset cannabis use may hasten the onset of psychotic as well as prodromal symptoms. Age at onset is a key prognostic factor in schizophrenia, and discovering modifiable predictors of age at onset is crucial.

Risk Factors for Psychosis: Impaired Social and Role Functioning

OBJECTIVES Risk for psychosis is currently defined primarily on the basis of attenuated positive symptoms (APS), with no inclusion of the functional deficits characteristic of schizophrenia. Impaired social and role functioning have been of interest for reflecting poor outcome but far less is known about the developmental impact of these deficits as vulnerability or risk factors. METHODS Age-appropriate social and role functioning were prospectively assessed in 100 individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis included in the 8-site North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study database. A nested case-control design was used to compare changes in social and role functioning in 26 individuals converting to psychosis shortly after baseline assessment and 24 converting over a year later. Individuals in each converter subgroup were directly matched to a non-converter at the same site, controlling for time to conversion, age, gender, and severity of baseline symptoms. RESULTS At baseline, CHR subjects who later became psychotic were significantly more likely to be impaired socially than matched non-converters. Onset of psychosis did not further disrupt social difficulties. Role functioning showed some of the same trends, but the overall pattern was not as consistent as for the social domain. Controlling for neurocognition did not change the pattern of group differences. CONCLUSIONS Early impaired social functioning appears to be a risk factor for psychosis and, added to APS, could potentially contribute to accurate identification of CHR individuals and provide a new direction for early intervention to reduce long-term disability.

Stress and neurodevelopmental processes in the emergence of psychosis

The notion that stress plays a role in the etiology of psychotic disorders, especially schizophrenia, is longstanding. However, it is only in recent years that the potential neural mechanisms mediating this effect have come into sharper focus. The introduction of more sophisticated models of the interplay between psychosocial factors and brain function has expanded our opportunities for conceptualizing more detailed psychobiological models of stress in psychosis. Further, scientific advances in our understanding of adolescent brain development have shed light on a pivotal question that has challenged researchers; namely, why the first episode of psychosis typically occurs in late adolescence/young adulthood. In this paper, we begin by reviewing the evidence supporting associations between psychosocial stress and psychosis in diagnosed patients as well as individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis. We then discuss biological stress systems and examine changes that precede and follow psychosis onset. Next, research findings on structural and functional brain characteristics associated with psychosis are presented; these findings suggest that normal adolescent neuromaturational processes may go awry, thereby setting the stage for the emergence of psychotic syndromes. Finally, a model of neural mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of psychosis is presented and directions for future research strategies are explored.