Elaine Wheaton

A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

There is a critical need to collectively understand, to develop adaptation options to enhance the benefits, and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change. This paper uses key questions to help build a framework for adaptation by first organizing the questions into adaptation science, management and option components, including their respective sub-categories. The process of adaptation depends on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they adapt and what and how resources are used. This conceptual model is designed to organize concepts regarding adaptation, to help stimulate ideas, and to explore the linkages among parts of the adaptation cycle. Predictive models need to be developed to determine the outcomes of planned adaptation strategies. For the best and most realistic evaluation of climate problems, adaptation and impacts should be considered together. This joint approach improves the assessment of the significance and dangers of the current and future climate, as well as the determination of solutions (e.g., how to prepare for a changing climate) and their priorities. Challenges of adaptive management are discussed in terms of a framework with linkages to adaptation science and options. Adaptation research and applications work continue to build on the foundation of science and management frameworks to address the risks and uncertainties in the decision-making process and to identify adaptation options.

Drought as a natural disaster

Abstract Droughts are major natural disasters for many parts of the world. Dry areas, where the precipitation pattern is markedly seasonal, or is otherwise highly variable, are the most susceptible. The Canadian Prairies, together with the U.S. Great Plains, are one such area. While immediate loss of life is seldom a feature of most droughts, malnutrition and even starvation do follow severe droughts in some parts of the world. In Canada, economic losses, particularly in the agricultural sector, may reach several hundred millions of dollars in a drought year, with major socio‐economic repercussions affecting the entire region. Environmental damages include soil degradation and erosion, vegetation damage, slough and lake deterioration and wildlife loss. Unlike most other natural disasters, drought onset is difficult to identify. Droughts develop slowly, and until human activity begins to be affected by an on‐going reduction of precipitation, their existence is unrecognized. Development and application of s...

Atmospheric circulation comparisons between the 2001 and 2002 and the 1961 and 1988 Canadian prairie droughts

Abstract The 2001 and 2002 Canadian Prairie droughts were unusual climatological events in terms of their extreme precipitation anomalies and extraordinary persistence. Over the west‐central Prairie Provinces, well below normal precipitation was recorded for a remarkable eight consecutive seasons from autumn 2000 to summer 2002. Analysis of the mid‐tropospheric circulation during these droughts indicates that the patterns were markedly different from those associated with the severe, multi‐season Prairie droughts of 1961 and 1988. In particular, the circulation during 2001 and 2002 lacked the distinct meridional flow over the North Pacific and North America that has been associated with previous dry periods over western Canada. Moreover, the evolution and persistence of the 2001–2002 droughts have no clear relationships with large‐scale teleconnection patterns that have influenced past climate extremes over western regions of the country. Results suggest that the recent droughts may be related to a northward extension of persistent drought producing circulation anomalies that influenced the continental United States. These differences in circulation indicate that further research is required to gain a better understanding and aid in the prediction of extended dry periods over North America.

Tomorrow’s Forests: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Today’s forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability’s of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow’s forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions.

Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley

Little is known about climate change and its impacts for the arid coastal and mountainous regions in northern Chile. The Elqui river basin, part of the Norte Chico of Chile between 27ºS and 33ºS latitude, is located south of the hyper-arid Atacama desert. Despite water scarcity, agricultural development in this region has been enhanced by agronomic practices and the marketing of valuable products. This paper characterizes the actual climate conditions and presents an overview and analyses of past climate variability, and future possible climate trends, emphasizing those relevant to agriculture. Precipitation shows an important decrease during the first decades of the past century. Runoff shows decreasing trends for the first half of the past century and increases for 1960 to 1985. Drought appears to be increasing. Statistical downscaling was accomplished using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator. Both future periods of 2011 to 2030 and 2046–65 showed trends to higher minimum and maximum temperature. The number of hot days (maximum temperature greater than or equal to 30°C) has a strong increasing trend during October to April. Even though the downscaled results for precipitation do not show trends, the continuation of the present trend of low amounts is a concern. We discuss some implications of climatic changes for agriculture and we emphasize the importance of adaptation, especially to deal with water scarcity.

Prairie dust storms : a neglected hazard

Dust storms are quite frequent in the Canadian Prairies, but few scientific studies of prairie dust storms exist. The droughts of the 1980s have resulted in many dust storms, even in the winter. Dust storms can no longer be considered just phenomena of the past. Dust storms are defined and examples are provided. The effects of dust storms are numerous, costly and severe. They include soil degradation, crop damage, water and air quality deterioration, and health problems. The climatological analysis of prairie dust storms is in its infancy. Much more information about prairie dust storms is needed in order to control or avoid their impacts.

Past and future extreme climatic events in Canadian prairies: Integrating economics and climate

T are approximately 82 million ha of timberland and more than 13 million ha of southern pine plantations in the southeastern United States. In this region, slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) are the most important species, accounting for more than 90% of the planted seedlings in the US. The physiological-process based model, 3-PG (physiological process predicting growth), has been widely applied to estimate the effects of management, climate and site characteristics on different stand level attributes such as stem volume growth, biomass dynamics or water use efficiency. This model uses species-specific physiological traits in conjunction with empirical treeand stand-level dynamics attributes to quantify stand growth and dynamics. Recently, the model was parameterized for loblolly and slash pine stands. The model was validated against a large number studies and operational plots across the natural range of distribution of both species. In this study, we used the model to estimate the impact of future climate change scenarios (using RCP 4.5 and 8.5) on stand dynamics and productivity in SE United States.T occurrence of dry & wet events causes major adverse impacts in the Canadian Prairies. In the past, dry events, which are typically agricultural and/or hydrological droughts, have been common in the region. At least five major drought episodes have occurredin the Canadian Prairies during the past 120 years. These include multi-year droughts in the 1890s, 1910s, 1930s, late 1950s to early 1960s, 1980s, 1999-2005, 2009-10. The years 2001-2004 resulted in one of the largest area multi-year drought. Almost half of the agricultural prairies were in severe drought or worse during 2001. For the older droughts of the 1900 to 1950 period, the 1930s were the largest multi-year droughts, and 1961 and 1919 were the single-year severe droughts that covered the largest area. According to Bonsal et al. (2011), some of the major droughts have migrated into the Canadian Prairies from the United States Great Plains, including the 1999-2005 drought. This means that it is important to monitor the northern US droughts for expansion or migration into Canada.In the future, the frequency of both droughts and intense precipitation areexpected to increase. In fact, the review by Wheaton et al. (2013) found that (i) multi-year droughts (e.g., 5 to 10 years, or so) would occur more than twice as often forthe period to 2100; (ii) they would come with more evaporative power and be more intense as they will have much higher temperatures and much longer warm seasons; and (iii) they would cover much more area than even the across-Canada drought of 2001-2002. Droughts of such magnitudes would have devastating impacts on the Prairies, economically, environmentally, and socially, particularly on those industries where weather is a major determining factor to their survival and performance. One such industry is agriculture. It is the contention of this paper that estimation of impacts of the past droughts has been limited in scope, and may have underestimated these impacts. This under-estimation may be a result of several reasons: (i) Past studies have typically measured these impacts for only the drought period. In reality a drought would affect some of the enterprises (such as livestock production) that take several years to completely result in an economic gain to the producers. (ii) Although private costs of the people impacted by droughts are measured, the macro-level changes causing hardships to people and businesses are not measured. (iii) Droughts may impact ecological goods and services which can then affect the society at large. (iv) Loss to human capital through stress, sickness, and loss of employment as well as other changes that lead to lost productivity are typically not included. (v) Fiscal costs to the governments and their resulting impact on other programs have not been estimated. (vi) Economic hardships to smaller communities and people living therein have also not been addressed. We recommend that future investigations attempt to redress these deficiencies in the method of estimation of social, environmental and economic impacts of droughts. Impacts of the recent severe droughts in the US Plains and Canadian Prairies are reminders that current adaptation can be improved.T like other countries is impacted by climate change and climate variability. Floods and drought are the two major extreme climate events in Tanzania. In recent years (2009-2011), heavy rains accompanied with strong winds have left thousands of people displaced and without food. Heavy rains and floods have resulted into loss of life, livestock and crops; an increase in vector and water-borne diseases; food shortages, internal displacement, and increased disease transmissions, damage to properties, destruction of the environment and economy. On the other hand, six droughts have occurred between 1980-2008 where 7.96 million people were affected, resulting into famine, loss of life, crop failure, lower water availability and quality and electricity rationing. In the Kilimanjaro region, reductions of ice cap and reported glacier vertical retreat have been observed on Mount Kilimanjaro. During the past three to five decades, there has been a steady increase in temperature with decreasing water levels in Lakes in various parts of the country. Rise in sea levels has been experienced, with Islands of Maziwe and Fungu la Nyani been submerged due to rise in sea level. Among others, this paper describes climate change in Tanzania in detail and its impacts to natural ecosystems.R evolution of computers in last decades provides complicating atmospheric models with detailing vertical profiles, accounting for irregular clouds in wide spectral ranges. Numerical algorithms for calculating radiative characteristics with maximal exactness and minimization of uncertainty are usually applied. There are many different computer codes including look-up tables with aerosols characteristics, water vapor, atmosphere conditions in different latitudes, continental and sea conditions, and seasons. Sophisticated approaches for calculating optical parameters are based on scattering and radiative transfer theories. It is very useful for applied problems. However the analysis of separate factors influence on atmospheric radiative characteristics without of considering all possible variations of the whole totality is often necessary for many research problems. For that case the simple models of homogeneous (for the clear atmosphere) and two or three layer atmosphere (for cloudy cases) allow operative varying considered atmospheric optical parameters and provide result that hardly contributes to complicate models and clearly elucidateaninteractions between of key atmospheric parameters and radiative characteristics. Two-stream methods of radiative transfer theory ensure an acceptable exactness for calculating integral (over viewing directions) radiative characteristics (irradiance and radiative divergences). Asymptotic formulas are also effective for fast and transparent calculation in case of the cloud atmosphere. A simplest optical model is accepted of the homogeneous clear atmosphere including ozone absorption in UV ranges, molecular scattering, and four variants of the aerosol content at selected shortwave wavelength. In cloud case three variants of extended cloud layer are added. Radiative characteristics together with heating rate are calculated and presented in this study. Results of optical parameters retrieved from observation of solar radiation in the atmosphere and radiative characteristics are compared with simple modelling.