Suren Kulshreshtha

Sink Potential of Canadian Agricultural Soils

Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian crop and livestock production were estimated for 1990, 1996 and 2001 and projected to 2008. Net emissions were also estimated for three scenarios (low (L), medium (M) and high (H)) of adoption of sink enhancing practices above the projected 2008 level. Carbon sequestration estimates were based on four sink-enhancing activities: conversion from conventional to zero tillage (ZT), reduced frequency of summerfallow (SF), the conversion of cropland to permanent cover crops (PC), and improved grazing land management (GM). GHG emissions were estimated with the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA). CEEMA estimates levels of production activities within the Canadian agriculture sector and calculates the emissions and removals associated with those levels of activities. The estimates indicate a decline in net emissions from 54 Tg CO2–Eq yr−1 in1990 to 52 Tg CO2–Eq yr−1 in 2008. Adoption of thesink-enhancing practices above the level projected for 2008 resulted in further declines in emissions to 48 Tg CO2–Eq yr−1 (L), 42 TgCO2–Eq yr−1 (M) or 36 Tg CO2–Eq yr−1 (H). Among thesink-enhancing practices, the conversion from conventional tillage to ZT provided the largest C sequestration potential and net reduction in GHG emissions among the scenarios. Although rates of C sequestration were generally higher for conversion of cropland to PC and adoption of improved GM, those scenarios involved smaller areas of land and therefore less C sequestration. Also, increased areas of PC were associated with an increase in livestock numbers and CH4 and N2O emissions from enteric fermentation andmanure, which partially offset the carbon sink. The CEEMA estimates indicate that soil C sinks are a viable option for achieving the UNFCCC objective of protecting and enhancing GHG sinks and reservoirs as a means of reducing GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 1992).

An Open Econometric Model of the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector

Limited information is available concerning the relationships existing among demand, supply, and price within the Canadian beef cattle sector. Since the sector is very dependent on exports to the U.S.A., an open econometric model is developed to estimate the simultaneous relationships prevailing among the demand, supply and price, and export variables. The two-stage least squares procedure is adopted to obtain a solution. It was estimated that by 1975 both Canadian domestic demand for beef and farm prices of beef will increase, but exports of live cattle will decline. The model also revealed that the price and production levels of feed grains are important factors in accommodating the expansion of demand.

Agricultural drought impact evaluation model: A systems approach

Abstract Droughts are a frequent phenomenon on the Great Plains of North America. Since the great drought of 1936–1937, policy-makers have been concerned about the economic impacts of a drought and they have searched for policies that would mitigate these impacts. This paper describes the process of developing an agricultural drought impact evaluation model (ADIEM) for the prairie region of Saskatchewan. It is the first in a series of three papers. Farm and aggregate impact analysis models are described in the second paper. In the third paper, an example of a drought mitigating policy is tested using the ADIEM. The ADIEM is an integrated systems model that contains four components: a yield-hydrology simulation model, farm business simulation models, a regional input-output model, and an employment model. The models are internally consistent and hierarchical, i.e., the output of one model becomes input for subsequent models. The ADIEM can be used in several ways including the evaluation of drought impacts on various types and sizes of farms, and on the regional and provincial economies. Various drought mitigative practices or public programs can also be evaluated in terms of their mitigative effects on farmers and the economy as a whole.

Prioritizing greenhouse gas emission mitigation measures for agriculture

Abstract Since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, a major effort has been launched in Canada to identify cost-effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Agriculture is an important contributor of methane and nitrous oxide in Canada. Over one-third of methane and almost four-fifths of nitrous oxide emissions are from agriculture either directly or indirectly. By 2010 primary agricultural production is expected to generate about 67 megatonne (in carbon dioxide equivalent), which increases to 97 megatonnes if all activities related to agricultural production are considered. Based on a systems approach, nutrient management was selected as a possible scenario for mitigation. Estimated results indicate that this could lead to a reduction of 0.9 megatonnes of GHG emissions at the primary agricultural production level, and 1.2 megatonnes if the total agriculture and food sectors are included. Compared to the direct emissions (from fertilizer rate and timing of application), the systems approach suggests up to a doubling (from 0.4 to 0.92 Mt) of this reduction potential at the primary production level. If one were to include emissions from the entire agriculture and agri-food system, potential of up to tripling (from 0.4 to 1.23 Mt) the reduction of GHG can be achieved. The need of a systems approach in prioritizing measures to reduce GHG emissions is supported by this study.

Value of Irrigation Water for Drought Proofing in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (Alberta)

Typically, the value of irrigation water is recognized for enhancing producer income and reducing rural poverty through its primary use—crop production. However, in this study an additional benefit to producers from irrigation is explored—reducing variability in farm income due to extreme weather events (droughts). This benefit is estimated for the Alberta portion of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB). Benefits from irrigation during a drought year were measured as the difference between producer surpluses from irrigated and dryland production systems, in a drought year, excluding the value of water for irrigated crop production in a non-drought year. This value was expressed per unit of water applied to irrigation. Short-run value estimates ranged from

Areas and greenhouse gas emissions from feed crops not used in Canadian livestock production in 2001.

37 per dam3 in the Bow River sub-basin, to about

Agricultural drought impact evaluation model: Description of components

42 per dam3 in the Oldman River sub-basin. These results suggest that water used for irrigation provides additional benefits beyond enhanced producer income in crop production. Thus, it is an effective drought mitigation strategy, and provides a successful adaptation to occurrence of extreme events (droughts) under climate change.

Climate change adaptation and food production in Canada: some research challenges

Estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadas four main livestock industries were integrated with the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA) which operates at the census district level. The livestock crop complex (LCC), which defines the crop area required to feed Canadas livestock, was disaggregated from provincial to district level. The LCC areas were subtracted from the crop areas stored in the CEEMA database to define the maximum area available for non-meat food, fiber, and biofuel feedstock production. The resulting non-livestock residual (NLR) area estimates were 18.7 Mha in the west (excluding rangeland, summerfallow, irrigated cropland and any crops not associated with livestock diets) and 1.0 Mha in the east. The GHG emissions from the NLR in the west were 13.7 Tg CO2e, or 30% of the total GHG emissions from those crops associated with livestock diets. The 1.6 Tg CO2e of GHG from the NLR in Eastern Canada represented 8% of the total GHG emissions from those livestock-related crops. The eastern NLR crop areas were more sensitive to changes in livestock populations than the Western Canada NLR areas because of the more dominant role of livestock production in eastern Canadian agriculture than in the west. The total agricultural GHG emissions budget showed direct but muted sensitivity to changes in Canadian livestock populations in both eastern and Western Canada. The methodology will link agricultural GHG emissions with district level land use decisions.

An Estimation of Canadian Agricultural Water Use

Abstract Various components of the Agricultural Drought Impact Evaluation Model are described in this paper, which is a second paper in a series of three. Various components describe methodology to estimate yields of various cereal grain and forage crops under drought conditions; to simulate the effects of the drought on economic and financial performance of the farm firm; to aggregate micro level results into regional (or provincial) level entities; to estimate secondary impacts of the drought both on economic activity and employment levels.

Water pricing under joint benefits: A case study of accounting for positive externalities

Canada is a vast country and faces different types of weather and climatic patterns. As a result, Canadian agriculture is a spatially heterogeneous industry and therefore, would face differing impacts of climate change in different regions. Depending on the region of study, although, such impacts would vary with different climate characteristics, differing enterprise combinations and the adaptation potential of producers may also have a significant role to play. In general, as average temperatures increase in northern latitudes, for many crops particularly in the northern regions of Canada (more specifically in the Prairie region); such impacts are estimated to be positive for the shorter term through higher yields. New production opportunities are expected to emerge; however, such knowledge is somewhat scarce. These positive benefits of climate change would be reduced when extreme events strike – droughts and floods are expected to become more frequent and severe. Although the impacts of one-year or backto-back droughts have been estimated, such is not the case with the impact longer period drought might have on producers and the economic system in Canada. For livestock, due to a negative impact on forage, pastures, and feed grain production, coupled with higher temperatures, some livestock productivity is expected to suffer in some regions. However, empirical studies on this impact are lacking. Among various challenges in meeting knowledge gaps some stand out. For example, many studies have employed different methodologies with respect to assumption of level of climate change, prediction period, inclusion of CO2 fertilization effect, shift of agro-ecosystems northwards, inclusion or exclusion of extreme events, among others. This makes comparison of regional