Eleanor C. Stokes

A critical knowledge pathway to low‐carbon, sustainable futures: Integrated understanding of urbanization, urban areas, and carbon

Independent lines of research on urbanization, urban areas, and carbon have advanced our understanding of some of the processes through which energy and land uses affect carbon. This synthesis integrates some of these diverse viewpoints as a first step toward a coproduced, integrated framework for understanding urbanization, urban areas, and their relationships to carbon. It suggests the need for approaches that complement and combine the plethora of existing insights into interdisciplinary explorations of how different urbanization processes, and socio-ecological and technological components of urban areas, affect the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions, differentially over time and within and across cities. It also calls for a more holistic approach to examining the carbon implications of urbanization and urban areas, based not only on demographics or income but also on other interconnected features of urban development pathways such as urban form, economic function, economic-growth policies, and other governance arrangements. It points to a wide array of uncertainties around the urbanization processes, their interactions with urban socio-institutional and built environment systems, and how these impact the exchange of carbon flows within and outside urban areas. We must also understand in turn how carbon feedbacks, including carbon impacts and potential impacts of climate change, can affect urbanization processes. Finally, the paper explores options, barriers, and limits to transitioning cities to low-carbon trajectories, and suggests the development of an end-to-end, coproduced and integrated scientific understanding that can more effectively inform the navigation of transitional journeys and the avoidance of obstacles along the way.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

Abstract Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro‐level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high‐quality Suomi‐NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Years season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price‐based incentives and societal‐level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Positioning infrastructure and technologies for low‐carbon urbanization

The expected urbanization of the planet in the coming century coupled with aging infrastructure in developed regions, increasing complexity of man-made systems, and pressing climate change impacts have created opportunities for reassessing the role of infrastructure and technologies in cities and how they contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Modern urbanization is predicated on complex, increasingly coupled infrastructure systems, and energy use continues to be largely met from fossil fuels. Until energy infrastructures evolve away from carbon-based fuels, GHG emissions are critically tied to the urbanization process. Further complicating the challenge of decoupling urban growth from GHG emissions are lock-in effects and interdependencies. This paper synthesizes state-of-the-art thinking for transportation, fuels, buildings, water, electricity, and waste systems and finds that GHG emissions assessments tend to view these systems as static and isolated from social and institutional systems. Despite significant understanding of methods and technologies for reducing infrastructure-related GHG emissions, physical, institutional, and cultural constraints continue to work against us, pointing to knowledge gaps that must be addressed. This paper identifies three challenge themes to improve our understanding of the role of infrastructure and technologies in urbanization processes and position these increasingly complex systems for low-carbon growth. The challenges emphasize how we can reimagine the role of infrastructure in the future and how people, institutions, and ecological systems interface with infrastructure.

Climate change and urban land systems: bridging the gaps between urbanism and land science

ABSTRACT Land science has generated critical knowledge about how humans modify Earth’s surface and has advanced our understanding of land as a coupled human–environment system. However, to date, most work has been in frontier environments with less attention – both conceptually and empirically – on how urban land systems affect the carbon cycle. Much of what is known about urban areas and the carbon cycle is limited to aggregate levels of activities within urban areas, usually by sector, with little focus on how the spatial configuration of urban land systems affects carbon-emitting activities. Given that urban areas produce about 70% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, it is crucial to understand the relationship between urban environments, the activities they influence, and the resulting carbon emissions. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge of how urban land systems affect carbon emissions and vulnerability, and identifies research gaps and opportunities for urban land science to contribute to climate change science, particularly through land architecture. We argue that more attention to urban land science conceptualization, measurement, and analysis would contribute to both fundamental knowledge about urban systems, as well as help identify policies and strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the urban scale.

Tradeoffs in environmental and equity gains from job accessibility

Significance Access to employment is key to the sustainability of urban areas. Although changes in access have consequences for multiple pillars of sustainability, in tandem, potential tradeoffs are rarely explored. This analysis measures employment accessibility trends over the past decade across and within US urban areas and assesses how these trends may be shaping emissions and social equity. We find that although US urban areas have increased in accessibility by 11% on average, few increases have provided both environmental and social value simultaneously. This study points to a paradox in sustainable development, where emissions mitigation and the welfare of low-income urban residents can be at odds. Increasing job accessibility is considered key to urban sustainability progress, both from an environmental and from a social perspective. However, sustainability outcomes depend on the processes contributing to accessibility trends, not just the trends themselves. Here, we ask whether sustainability benefits have followed from accessibility trends in the United States. We measure changes in accessibility from 2002 to 2014 across 909 US urban areas and decompose these changes to understand underlying infrastructure and land use processes. Our results show that job accessibility has increased across 74% of urban areas for the average resident, using both cars and transit. However, most of these accessibility gains were not achieved in ways that are inherently beneficial to environmental or social sustainability. In some urban areas, accessibility increases were conducive to reducing emissions, while in others, accessibility increases were conducive to reducing social inequities. However, accessibility increases almost never created a simultaneous social and environmental “win–win,” as is often assumed. Our findings highlight how the spatial patterns of urbanization create tradeoffs between different facets of sustainability. Identifying where social objectives take precedence over environmental objectives (or vice versa) could help determine how accessibility increases can be accomplished to contribute to a more sustainable urban future.