Eleanor Frajka-Williams

Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 N

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the heat transported by the ocean. A mooring array, nomianally at 26

Determining Vertical Water Velocities from Seaglider

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Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave

N between the Bahamas and the Canary Islands, deployed in Apr 2004 provides continuous measurements of the strength and variability of this circulation. With seven full years of measurements, we now examine the interannual variability of the MOC. While earlier results highlighted substantial seasonal and shorter timescale variability, there had not been significant interannual variability. The mean MOC from 1 Apr 2004 to the 31 March 2009 was 18.5 Sv with the annual means having a standard deviation of only 1.0 Sv. From 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2010, the annually averaged MOC strength was just 12.8 Sv, representing a 30\% decline. This downturn persisted from early 2009 to mid-2010. We show that the cause of the decline was not only an anomalous wind-driven event from Dec 2009--Mar 2010 but also a strengthening of the geostrophic flow. In particular, the southward flow in the top 1100~m intensified, while the deep southward return transport---particularly in the deepest layer from 3000--5000~m---weakened. This rebalancing of the transport from the deep overturning to the upper gyre has implications for the heat transported by the Atlantic.

Estimating the Atlantic overturning at 26°N using satellite altimetry and cable measurements

Vertical velocities in the worlds oceans are typically small, less than 1 cm/s, posing a significant challenge to observation techniques. Seaglider, an autonomous profiling instrument, can be used to estimate vertical water velocity in the ocean to about half a centimeter per second. Using a Seaglider flight model and pressure observations, vertical water velocities are estimated along glider trajectories in the Labrador Sea before, during and after deep convection. Results indicate that vertical velocities in the stratified ocean agree with theoretical WKB-scaling of w, and in the turbulent mixed layer, scale with buoyancy and wind forcing. We estimate that accuracy is within 0.6 cm/s. Due to uncertainties in the flight model, velocities are poor near the surface and deep apogees, and during extended roll maneuvers. Some of this may be improved by using a dynamic flight model permitting acceleration, and by better constraining flight parameters through pilot choices during the mission.

Seasonal to interannual variability in density around the Canary Islands and their influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N

The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.

The observed North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, its Meridional Coherence and Ocean Bottom Pressure

Climate simulations predict a slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), a key oceanic component of the climate system, while continuous observations of the MOC from boundary arrays demonstrate substantial variability on weekly to interannual time scales. These arrays are necessarily limited to individual latitudes. A potential proxy for the MOC covering longer time scales and larger spatial scales is desirable. Here we use sea surface height data from satellites to estimate the interannual variability of transbasin ocean transports at 26°N. Combining this estimate with surface Ekman transport and cable measurements of the Florida Current, we construct a time series of the MOC from 1993 to 2014. This satellite-based estimate recovers over 90% of the interannual variability of the MOC measured by the RAPID 26°N array. This analysis complements in situ observational efforts to measure the MOC at multiple latitudes and opens the door to a broader spatial understanding of the Atlantic circulation variability.

A new index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N

The meridional interior flow obtained from the RAPID array is determined by horizontal density fluctuations at the eastern and western boundary of 26°N. The physical causes of these density variations are responsible for fluctuations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through it, the meridional heat transport of the Atlantic. In this modelling study, a high resolution ocean model is used to investigate the source and origin of the AMOC variability associated with the density fluctuations at the eastern boundary. The AMOC in the model is in good agreement with the RAPID observations and appears to adequately represent the smaller scale features of variability around the Canary Islands. In this paper, we identify a robust relationship between the density structure south of the Canary Islands, the local wind stress curl (WSC) around these islands and the AMOC using an empirical orthogonal functions analysis, wavelet transform and wavelet coherence. We find that the deep density fluctuations at the eastern boundary of 26°N arise from the pumping effect of the spatial pattern of WSC south of the islands. These deep density fluctuations drive the AMOC both on seasonal and interannual timescales, through their influence on the basinwide tilt of the thermocline. At seasonal timescales, the density fluctuations south of the islands are driven by the WSC and directly influence the AMOC. At interannual timescales, a significant coherence is found between the density fluctuation and the southward UMO transport although the origin of these density fluctuations is not explained by the the direct pumping caused by the WSC.

Variability of Antarctic Bottom Water at 24.5°N in the Atlantic

AbstractAnalyses of meridional transport time series from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (RAPID MOC) array at 26°N and from Argo float and altimetry data at 41°N reveal that, at semiannual and longer time scales, the contribution from the western boundary dominates the variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), defined as the transport in the upper 1000 m of the ocean. Because the variability of the western boundary contribution is associated with a geostrophic overturning, it is reflected in independent estimates of transports from gradient of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) relative to and below 1000 m on the continental slope of the western boundary at three nominal latitudes (26°, 39°, and 42.5°N). Time series of western meridional transports relative to and below 1000 m derived from the OBP gradient, or equivalently derived from the transport shear profile, exhibit approximately the same phase relationship between 26° and 39°–42.5°N as the wes...

Vertical structure of eddies and Rossby waves, and their effect on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

AbstractThe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has received considerable attention, motivated by its major role in the global climate system. Observations of AMOC strength at 26°N made by the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array provide the best current estimate of the state of the AMOC. The period 2004–11 when RAPID AMOC is available is too short to assess decadal variability of the AMOC. This modeling study introduces a new AMOC index (called AMOCSV) at 26°N that combines the Florida Straits transport, the Ekman transport, and the southward geostrophic Sverdrup transport. The main hypothesis in this study is that the upper midocean geostrophic transport calculated using the RAPID array is also wind-driven and can be approximated by the geostrophic Sverdrup transport at interannual and longer time scales. This index is expected to reflect variations in the AMOC at interannual to decadal time scales. This estimate of the surface branch of the AMOC can be constructed as long as reliable measu...

Estimating oceanic primary production using vertical irradiance and chlorophyll profiles from ocean gliders in the North Atlantic

A recent hydrographic section at 24.5°N in the Atlantic and 6 months of observations from a moored array show that Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), the densest and deepest water mass in the world oceans, has been warming. While Johnson et al. (2008) showed that northward AABW transport at 24.5°N has been declining from 1981 to 2004, suggesting that the lower cell of the overturning circulation could halt in the near future, estimates from the latest hydrographic section in 2010 indicate a partial recovery of northward AABW transport. From 6 months of temperature and salinity observations at a deep moored array at 24–26°N, we find that short-term variability between April and November 2009 is of the same magnitude as the changes observed from hydrographic sections between 1981 and 2004. These observations highlight the possibility that transport changes estimated from hydrographic sections may be aliased by short-term variability. The observed AABW transport variability affects present estimates of the upper meridional overturning circulation by ±0.4 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s?1).