S. A. Cunningham

Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation carries warm upper waters into far-northern latitudes and returns cold deep waters southward across the Equator. Its heat transport makes a substantial contribution to the moderate climate of maritime and continental Europe, and any slowdown in the overturning circulation would have profound implications for climate change. A transatlantic section along latitude 25° N has been used as a baseline for estimating the overturning circulation and associated heat transport. Here we analyse a new 25° N transatlantic section and compare it with four previous sections taken over the past five decades. The comparison suggests that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has slowed by about 30 per cent between 1957 and 2004. Whereas the northward transport in the Gulf Stream across 25° N has remained nearly constant, the slowing is evident both in a 50 per cent larger southward-moving mid-ocean recirculation of thermocline waters, and also in a 50 per cent decrease in the southward transport of lower North Atlantic Deep Water between 3,000 and 5,000 m in depth. In 2004, more of the northward Gulf Stream flow was recirculating back southward in the thermocline within the subtropical gyre, and less was returning southward at depth.

Transport and variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in Drake Passage

The baroclinic transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) above 3000 m through Drake Passage is 107.3 ± 10.4 Sv and has been steady between 1975 and 2000. For six hydrographic sections (1993–2000) along the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) line SR1b, the baroclinic transport relative to the deepest common level is 136.7 ± 7.8 Sv. The ACC transport is carried in two jets, the Subantarctic Front 53 ± 10 Sv and the Polar Front (PF) 57.5 ± 5.7 Sv. Southward of the ACC the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current transports 9.3 ± 2.4 Sv. We observe the PF at two latitudes separated by 90 km. This bimodal distribution is related to changes in the circulation and properties of Antarctic Bottom Water. Three realizations of the instantaneous velocity field were obtained with lowered ADCPs. From these observations we obtain near-bottom reference velocities for transport calculations. Net transport due to these reference velocities ranges from -28 to 43 Sv, consistent with previous estimates of variability. The transport in density layers shows systematic variations due to seasonal heating in near-surface layers. Volume transport-weighted mean temperatures vary by 0.40°C from spring to summer; a seasonal variation in heat flux of about 0.22 PW. Finally, we review a series of papers from the International Southern Ocean Studies Program. The average yearlong absolute transport is 134 Sv, and the standard deviation of the average is 11.2 Sv; the error of the average transport is 15 to 27 Sv. We emphasize that baroclinic variability is an important contribution to net variability in the ACC.

Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer [derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses]; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array. The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.

Vivaldi 1991 - A study of the formation, circulation and ventilation of Eastern North Atlantic Central Water

Abstract A synoptic, hydrographic data set comprising 32 full depth CTD casts and 2500 CTD/SeaSoar profiles to 500 m is used to describe the θ/S properties and circulation of Central Water east of the mid-Atlantic Ridge and between 39°N and 54°N. Eastward transport of 20 × 106 m3 s−1 in the North Atlantic Current turns entirely northwards to the west of 54°N, 20°W. This transport consists in the upper layers of Western North Atlantic Water freshened at temperatures below 10°C by mixing with SubArctic Intermediate Water. Northern and Southern branches of the North Atlantic Current are well defined and both turn northwards west of 20°W. A further 10 × 106 m3 s−1 of Eastern North Atlantic Water forms and recirculates anticyclonically to the west of Spain south of the North Atlantic Current and north of 40°N. Eastern North Atlantic Water is most weakly stratified east of 20°W and there is clear correlation between weakly stratified pycnostads and positive salinity anomalies relative to Western North Atlantic Water. Thus Eastern North Atlantic Water is a winter Mode Water in which strong winter cooling has increased the density and hence also the salinity anomaly at a given temperature. Near the southern entrance to the Rockall Trough there is evidence that salinities are also increased by Mediterranean Water influence. Circulation south of the North Atlantic Current is complex. There is no evidence for direct ventilation southwards across 40°N where water properties (θ/S, potential vorticity and CFC-113) and historical data all indicate westward ventilation east of 24°W, with weak southward ventilation occurring further west, in the vicinity of the Azores. The circulation pattern suggested is remarkably similar to that proposed by Helland-Hansen and Nansen in 1926 (The eastern North Atlantic, Geophysiske Publicajoner, 4, 1–76), with anticyclonic circulation of colder Eastern North Atlantic Water north of 40°N meeting warmer water from south of 40°N circulating cyclonically north of the Azores Current. The distribution of pycnostads and θ/S properties between 20°W and 35°W north of the Azores indicates alternate bands of Western and Eastern North Atlantic Water moving eastward and westward respectively, including evidence for westward motion immediately south of the Southern branch of the North Atlantic Current, possibly by westward propagation of anticyclonic eddies containing deep pycnostads.

Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 N

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the heat transported by the ocean. A mooring array, nomianally at 26

Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

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Past, Present, and Future Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

N between the Bahamas and the Canary Islands, deployed in Apr 2004 provides continuous measurements of the strength and variability of this circulation. With seven full years of measurements, we now examine the interannual variability of the MOC. While earlier results highlighted substantial seasonal and shorter timescale variability, there had not been significant interannual variability. The mean MOC from 1 Apr 2004 to the 31 March 2009 was 18.5 Sv with the annual means having a standard deviation of only 1.0 Sv. From 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2010, the annually averaged MOC strength was just 12.8 Sv, representing a 30\% decline. This downturn persisted from early 2009 to mid-2010. We show that the cause of the decline was not only an anomalous wind-driven event from Dec 2009--Mar 2010 but also a strengthening of the geostrophic flow. In particular, the southward flow in the top 1100~m intensified, while the deep southward return transport---particularly in the deepest layer from 3000--5000~m---weakened. This rebalancing of the transport from the deep overturning to the upper gyre has implications for the heat transported by the Atlantic.

Basinwide Integrated Volume Transports in an Eddy-Filled Ocean

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, 48-month-long time series of the vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008, the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ± 2.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic midocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geost...

Variability of shallow and deep western boundary currents off the Bahamas during 2004–05: results from the 26°N RAPID–MOC Array

Observations and numerical modeling experiments provide evidence for links between variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and global climate patterns. Reduction in the strength of the overturning circulation is thought to have played a key role in rapid climate change in the past and may have the potential to significantly influence climate change in the future, as noted in the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (Houghton et al.; Solomon et al.). Both IPCC reports also highlighted the significant uncertainties that exist regarding the future behavior of the AMOC under global warming. Model results suggest that changes in the AMOC can impact surface air temperature, precipitation patterns, and sea level, particularly in areas bordering the North Atlantic, thus affecting human populations. Here, the current understanding of past, present, and future changes in the AMOC and the effects of such changes on climate are reviewed. The focus is on observations of the AMOC, how the AMOC influences climate, and in what way the AMOC is likely to change over the next few decades and the twenty-first century. The potential for decadal prediction of the AMOC is also discussed. Finally, the outstanding challenges and possible future directions for AMOC research are outlined.

Decadal changes in the South Indian Ocean thermocline

The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5 degrees N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude.Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m-as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006-varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5 degrees N on interannual to decadal time scales.