Eli Amir

The Association of R&D and Capital Expenditures with Subsequent Earnings Variability

We examine whether the sensitivity of pay to performance is associated with the amount of insider trading that managers undertake. Because insider trading profits represent an alternative form of compensation, we expect that firms will consider the compensation component provided by insider trading when designing remuneration contracts. Employing a proxy for insider trading that captures the degree to which managers trade on private information, we find evidence that an increased (a decreased) level of insider trading is associated with a decreased (an increased) pay-performance sensitivity. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.We examine whether the sensitivity of pay to performance is associated with the amount of insider trading that managers undertake. Because insider trading profits represent an alternative form of compensation, we expect that firms will consider the compensation component provided by insider trading when designing remuneration contracts. Employing a proxy for insider trading that captures the degree to which managers trade on private information, we find evidence that an increased (a decreased) level of insider trading is associated with a decreased (an increased) pay performance sensitivity.

The Aggregation and Valuation of Deferred Taxes

This paper clarifies some of the conflicting arguments about the value relevance of deferred taxes. We address two questions. First, does accounting aggregation hold, or in other words, are deferred tax expense and liability balances valued the same as operating earnings and asset balances, respectively? Second, what accounting method for deferred taxes preserves classical accounting relations, or should deferred taxes be recorded as equity, as debt, or as some combination of these categories? We answer these questions using a model of depreciable assets and cashflow dynamics identical to Feltham and Ohlson (1996). We find that aggregation does not hold; rather deferred taxes are valued less than earnings and book value. Deferred taxes add value because they represent the deferral of tax payments, so their value is the net present value of the tax benefits. We interpret this result to mean that the timing of the reversal of temporary differences does matter, consistent with recent empirical work. Our analysis shows that the deferred tax liability, as currently recorded in accordance with US GAAP, overstates the liability. Also, we find that the classical accounting relations hold only when deferred taxes are adjusted to their net present value. Further, the extent of this adjustment depends on whether or not the tax benefits are capitalized into the cost of the operating asset. If the benefits are reflected in the assets cost, deferred taxes should be adjusted down based on the ratio of the discount rate over the sum of the tax depreciation and discount rates. Otherwise, the entire balance should be treated as equity.

Accounting Recognition and the Determinants of Pension Asset Allocation

We identify and test motives for corporate pension asset allocations using a proprietary asset allocation database covering the 1988–1994 period. We focus on the question of whether the recognition of additional minimum pension liability in accordance with SFAS No. 87 affects asset allocation. Our results are consistent with the claim that companies allocate their pension assets to avoid the recognition of an additional minimum liability. In particular, companies that are close to the recognition threshold prefer fixed-income investments rather than equity investments. By investing in fixed-income securities, firms increase the correlation between pension assets and liabilities, reducing the likelihood of a pension deficit. Our results also suggest that firms allocate their pension assets between equities and fixed-income investments to reduce the volatility of pension contributions. Finally, we find that larger firms and firms with a young workforce invest more in equity securities than in fixed-income securities.

Extracting Sustainable Earnings from Profit Margins

Revenues and expenses are fundamentally proportional to one another, but are likely to be disproportionally affected by transitory items or economic shocks. We build on this observation and propose a new measure of sustainable earnings based on deviations from normal profit margins. While some other sustainable earnings metrics attempt to identify transitory components on a line-by-line basis, our measure, referred to as the intensity of core earnings (ICE), uses ratio analysis to extract the transitory portion of earnings from all line items. We find that the ICE, as measured here, is positively associated with earnings persistence, better earnings predictability, and stronger market reaction to unexpected earnings. We also find that our measure is positively associated with post-earnings announcement excess stock returns. Comparing our measure with an accrual-based measure of earnings quality, we find that, in general, the two metrics provide distinct incremental information relative to one another and in some instances our measure is better than an accrual-based measure in assessing earnings quality.

Criminal Convictions and Risk Taking

An analysis of a proprietary dataset reveals that non-trivial proportions of directors, Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and Chief Financial Officers in Swedish listed companies have been convicted or suspected of crimes. Based on prior literature, we argue that directors and senior executives who have been convicted or suspected of crimes are more prone to take risk. Consistent with this argument, we find that firms with more criminally convicted/suspected directors and CEOs report more volatile earnings, engage more in goodwill writeoffs due to more unsuccessful acquisitions, and recognize bad news in earnings in a less timely manner. We also find that these firms are, on average, smaller and less profitable. These findings highlight the role personal characteristics of directors and senior management play in managerial decisions.

The Deterrent Effect of Whistleblowing on Tax Collections

Abstract Many countries use tax-related whistleblowing programs, but the evidence on these programs suggests information provided by whistleblowers yields modest tax collections. However, when every citizen could become a whistleblower, deterrence from tax evasion can by itself increase tax collections. We find that tax collections significantly increased after the introduction of the whistleblowing mechanism in Israel in February 2013, although this mechanism directly yielded little or no tax collections. In support of the hypothesis that deterrence led to the increase in tax collections, we find that collections increased in industries with high tax-evasion risk, but not in industries with low tax-evasion risk. Furthermore, the increase in tax collections occurred in corporations, where the timing and magnitude of tax payments are more discretionary, but not from employees, for whom employers directly deduct taxes. Eventually, following reports that the whistleblowing mechanism is ineffective, deterrence diminished and tax collections decreased, suggesting the deterrence effect was temporary.

Estimating the Precision of Information on Earnings and Non-earnings Announcement Days, and Its Relation with the Cost of Equity

ABSTRACT Using daily stock returns, we estimate the precision of information during earnings and non-earnings announcement days, and find that although the precision of information in daily stock returns increases during earnings announcement days, it explains less of the variation in expected returns than the precision of information on non-earnings announcement days. Our findings suggest that the precision of earnings disclosures has a small effect on the cost of equity relative to the precision of information on other days of the year.

Business Corruption and Economic Prosperity

Prior literature shows government corruption mostly hurts poorer economies, whereas recent events, including the 2008 US economic crisis, suggest business corruption may harm growth in wealthier economies. Using multi-national surveys in which citizens communicated their perceptions of corruption levels for both the private and the public sectors, we examine the extent of business corruption relative to government corruption in countries, and its relation to economic prosperity. We find that citizens of wealthier countries report higher business corruption than citizens of poor countries, and relatively lower government corruption. Business corruption is evidently a greater concern to citizens of wealthier countries. Furthermore, we find that an increase in perceived business corruption is associated with a decrease in income per capita mainly in wealthy countries. In wealthier economies, business trust has a larger role, and perceived business corruption has a stronger effect on growth. Finally, our evidence suggests an increase in perceived business corruption leads to increase in regulation, and the marginal effect of the regulation on growth is positive.

The Association between the Uncertainty of Future Economic Benefits and Current R&D and Capital Expenditures: Industry and Intertemporal Analyses

Since 1974, R&D expenditures have been fully expensed when incurred partly because R&D activities are claimed to be associated with a high degree of uncertainty in future economic benefits. In this study, we estimate the association between R&D expenditures and capital expenditures (CAPEX) and the variance of future earnings per share and operating income. We show that R&D expenditures lead to higher volatility of future earnings than capital expenditures only in R&D-intensive industries, where industry R&D intensity is measured as the R&D-to-CAPEX ratio. We also find that the stronger association of R&D with uncertainty in future earnings is a recent phenomenon. Finally, we show that in industries that are relatively less dependent on R&D activities, the probability of recovering R&D expenditures is similar to that of capital expenditures. Overall, our results suggest that while some industries engage in a more innovative and uncertain R&D activities, R&D in other industries is less uncertain. These results suggest that the impact of R&D on future performance considerably varies across industries and time periods.