Itay Kama

On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises

This study extends Ertimur et al. (2003) and Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006a) by providing a contextual framework for the information content of revenue and earnings surprises. I find that the influence of earnings surprises (revenue surprises) on stock returns is lower (higher) in R&D intensive companies. Also, market reaction to earnings surprises is lower in the fourth quarter, and to revenue surprises it is higher in industries with oligopolistic competition. A comprehensive analysis indicates that, in contrast to previous studies for the full sample, in several contexts market reaction to earnings surprises is not higher than to revenue surprises. Copyright (c) 2008 The Author Journal compilation (c) 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Extracting Sustainable Earnings from Profit Margins

Revenues and expenses are fundamentally proportional to one another, but are likely to be disproportionally affected by transitory items or economic shocks. We build on this observation and propose a new measure of sustainable earnings based on deviations from normal profit margins. While some other sustainable earnings metrics attempt to identify transitory components on a line-by-line basis, our measure, referred to as the intensity of core earnings (ICE), uses ratio analysis to extract the transitory portion of earnings from all line items. We find that the ICE, as measured here, is positively associated with earnings persistence, better earnings predictability, and stronger market reaction to unexpected earnings. We also find that our measure is positively associated with post-earnings announcement excess stock returns. Comparing our measure with an accrual-based measure of earnings quality, we find that, in general, the two metrics provide distinct incremental information relative to one another and in some instances our measure is better than an accrual-based measure in assessing earnings quality.

Management Expectations and Asymmetric Cost Behavior

We examine the effect of managerial expectations on asymmetric cost behavior in the context of resource adjustment costs and unused resource constraints. Our results show that the incremental impact of managerial expectations on cost asymmetry is the strongest when adjustment costs and unused resources are high. Conversely, when both are low, expectations have no impact on the degree of cost asymmetry. Furthermore, when the degree of unused resources is high, managerial pessimism is associated with anti-sticky cost behavior but managerial optimism reverses this relation and results in cost stickiness. Finally, we find the strongest cost stickiness under the following: a low degree of unused resources, a high magnitude of adjustment costs, and optimistic managerial expectations; by contrast, the strongest cost anti-stickiness occurs when all three drivers operate in the opposite direction. Our study suggests that additional economic determinants should be considered when assessing the impact of managerial expectations on cost behavior.

Camouflaged Earnings Management

We argue that, in response to increased scrutiny and greater attention to accruals versus sales, firms become more likely to engage in accrual conversion (AC) cash management aimed at aligning cash and accruals with earnings and sales (e.g., by factoring of receivables). In doing so, they reduce the statistical power of standard indicators of accrual-based earnings management—in effect, camouflaging their earnings management activity. This proposition is of interest because many influential papers on earnings management have utilized accrual-based indicators to reach their conclusions. Our results indicate that firms indeed became more likely to engage in AC cash management after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), and that this tendency was particularly pronounced among firms with strong incentives (or enhanced ability) to perform and hide earnings management. In particular, our findings suggest that the post-SOX decrease in standard measurements of accrual-based earnings management, identified in prior research, is partially attributable to firms’ increased engagement in AC cash management activity.

A Contextual Analysis of the Impact of Managerial Expectations on Asymmetric Cost Behavior

We examine the effect of managerial expectations on asymmetric cost behavior in the context of resource adjustment costs and unused resource constraints. Our results show that the incremental impact of managerial expectations on cost asymmetry is the strongest when adjustment costs and unused resources are high. Conversely, when both are low, expectations have no impact on the degree of cost asymmetry. Furthermore, when the degree of unused resources is high, managerial pessimism is associated with anti-sticky cost behavior but managerial optimism reverses this relation and results in cost stickiness. Finally, we find the strongest cost stickiness under the following: a low degree of unused resources, a high magnitude of adjustment costs, and optimistic managerial expectations; by contrast, the strongest cost anti-stickiness occurs when all three drivers operate in the opposite direction. Our study suggests that additional economic determinants should be considered when assessing the impact of managerial expectations on cost behavior.

The Tone of Management Forward Looking Statements and Asymmetric Cost Behavior

We examine the effect of managerial expectations on asymmetric cost behavior in the context of resource adjustment costs and unused resource constraints. Our results show that the incremental impact of managerial expectations on cost asymmetry is the strongest when adjustment costs and unused resources are high. Conversely, when both are low, expectations have no impact on the degree of cost asymmetry. Furthermore, when the degree of unused resources is high, managerial pessimism is associated with anti-sticky cost behavior but managerial optimism reverses this relation and results in cost stickiness. Finally, we find the strongest cost stickiness under the following: a low degree of unused resources, a high magnitude of adjustment costs, and optimistic managerial expectations; by contrast, the strongest cost anti-stickiness occurs when all three drivers operate in the opposite direction. Our study suggests that additional economic determinants should be considered when assessing the impact of managerial expectations on cost behavior.

The Tension between Management Expectations, Slack Resources, and Adjustment Costs and Asymmetric Cost Behavior

We examine the effect of managerial expectations on asymmetric cost behavior in the context of resource adjustment costs and unused resource constraints. Our results show that the incremental impact of managerial expectations on cost asymmetry is the strongest when adjustment costs and unused resources are high. Conversely, when both are low, expectations have no impact on the degree of cost asymmetry. Furthermore, when the degree of unused resources is high, managerial pessimism is associated with anti-sticky cost behavior but managerial optimism reverses this relation and results in cost stickiness. Finally, we find the strongest cost stickiness under the following: a low degree of unused resources, a high magnitude of adjustment costs, and optimistic managerial expectations; by contrast, the strongest cost anti-stickiness occurs when all three drivers operate in the opposite direction. Our study suggests that additional economic determinants should be considered when assessing the impact of managerial expectations on cost behavior.