Eliane Araújo

Finance-Led Growth Regime no Brasil: estatuto teórico, evidências empíricas e consequências macroeconômicas

This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.

Regimes de crescimento econômico no Brasil: evidências empíricas e implicações de política

Este artigo investiga o regime de crescimento vigente na economia brasileira de 2001 a 2009, apresentando um modelo teorico que serve de base para a investigacao empirica referente a economia brasileira. Os resultados mostram que internamente o regime de crescimento da economia brasileira e do tipo wage-led, mas quando se considera o setor externo, esse pode ser caracterizado como profit-led. Isso traz implicacoes importantes para a analise convencional dos efeitos de uma depreciacao da taxa de câmbio sobre a producao domestica, mais especificamente que uma depreciacao na taxa de câmbio tende a ter efeitos expansionistas sobre a producao nacional.

Estabilidad de precios bajo metas de inflación en Brasil: análisis empírico del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria con base en un modelo VAR 2000-2008

Con el objetivo de producir un cuerpo de evidencia empirica que permita evaluar los costos y beneficios de la politica brasilena de estabilizacion se realizo un analisis econometrico del mecanismo de transmision de la politica monetaria desde la adopcion del regimen de metas de inflacion (en adelante RMI) hasta la crisis de las subprime (2000-2008). La tasa de cambio ha sido el principal canal de transmision. Ademas, la sensibilidad de la inflacion es baja con respecto a la tasa basica de interes (tasa Selic), por lo que una elevacion de esta genera beneficios (caida de la inflacion) relativamente pequenos. Sin embargo, un aumento de la misma tiene costos sustanciales: reduccion de la actividad economica, apreciacion cambiaria e incremento en la deuda publica. La baja sensibilidad de la inflacion con respecto a la tasa de interes se interpreta como resultado de problemas en el mecanismo de transmision: las imperfecciones en esta reducen la eficiencia de la politica monetaria. La estabilidad de precios, bajo el RMI, requiere una politica monetaria demasiado rigida. El resultado final es, por un lado, que la inflacion dificilmente cede y, por otro, que se intensifica la alta tasa de interes. La conclusion es que el equilibrio entre los costos y los beneficios de la politica monetaria es desfavorable.

Interaction between Macroeconomics Variables and IBOVESPA, Brazilian Stock Market Index

Abstracts This paper analyzes the relations between macroeconomic variables and the Brazilian stock market index, the Ibovespa, from January of 2001 to December of 2011, using a Vector Error Correction model (VEC). The main results showed that the Ibovespa reacts negatively to impulses in the exchange rate, interest rate differential and variations in the Selic rate. Results also showed positive reaction to the price index IPCA. Furthermore, an important result was achieved from the decomposition analysis of the variance. This showed that the interest rate differential reflects the perception of risk by foreign investors, which explains the considerable variation in the Ibovespa index during that period.

O crédito como mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária: aspectos teóricos e evidências empíricas para o Brasil

This paper analyzes the operability and efficiency of the credit channel as a transmission mechanism for monetary policy in Brazil, during the period of January, 2001 to September, 2011. To this end, two IS equations were estimated, with different specifications for the actual interest rate - with and without credit - in order to measure the intensity and timing of response of variations on the products interest rate. In this effort, the model of vector error correction (VEC) was used as a methodology. Results for the two equations confirm the effectiveness of the credit channel in Brazil, because it is noted that, by including the credit variable, the negative effects of a shock in the actual interest rate on the product are more severe and affect it more quickly than without considering the that variable.

Empirical analysis on the determinants of FDI in Brazil for the period of the post 1990

Abstract The objective of this article is to analyse the factors that determine the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil after 1995, a period in which there was monetary stabilisation. The study includes analysing the theoretical aspects of this investment and investigating the empirical aspects of the Brazilian reality of FDI. Applying an econometrical model to statistically analyse the possible determinants of FDI in Brazil is one the specific objectives of this study. Compared to the others, the difference of this study lies in the focus given to the macroeconomic variables of the economy in relation to the inflow of FDI. It also studies the possibility of using the vector error correction (VEC) model, which allows a greater number of observations and better adjustments of the model. The study finds that gross domestic product (GDP), country risk, and FDI inflows themselves appear to have a more significant impact on new inflows of FDI.

THE NONLINEARITY OF BRAZILIAN MONETARY POLICY IN THE INFLATION-TARGETING PERIOD: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON AN MS-VAR MODEL

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes the hypothesis of the nonlinearity of Brazilian monetary policy following the implementation of inflation-targeting regime. At the theoretical level, it discusses growth and macroeconomic regimes and their effect over Brazilian economy according to the behavior of a number of variables. Empirically, it tests the hypothesis of the nonlinearity of monetary policy in Brazil, estimating a Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model. The results identify two different monetary regimes: the first regime, which primarily occurred between 2000 and 2007, and the second regime, which primarily occurred between 2007 and 2013. In the case of the second regime, a contractionary monetary policy had more persistent effects on both the public debt and the exchange rate.

POLÍTICA CAMBIAL, ESTRUTURA PRODUTIVA E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO: FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS E EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS PARA O BRASIL NO PERÍODO 1996-2012

O objetivo deste artigo e analisar o perfil da estrutura produtiva brasileira entre 1996 e 2012 e de que forma ele foi impactado pelo regime de câmbio do periodo. A hipotese que se explicita e a de que o regime de câmbio apreciado foi prejudicial aos setores e ramos tecnologicamente mais sofisticados, favorecendo os ramos mais tradicionais e aqueles ligados as atividades primarias. Esse regime contribuiu para mudar o perfil da estrutura produtiva brasileira, provocando um processo de “desindustrializacao relativa”, que se reflete em variaveis do setor externo e possui importantes consequencias para o crescimento economico. Tendo em vista tal situacao, a retomada do crescimento economico sustentado so sera possivel mediante a reindustrializacao da economia brasileira, para a qual a politica cambial e a variavel-chave para determinar essa mudanca estrutural.

REGIME DE METAS DE INFLAÇÃO: ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA E EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS PARA PAÍSES EMERGENTES SELECIONADOS

The objective of this paper is to analyze the inflation targeting regime (ITR) in Brazil in the light of the experiences of other selected emerging countries, namely: South Africa, Chile, Colombia, South Korea and Mexico. To that end, there is an exposition of the contexts in which ITR was adopted in the selected countries, as well as a comparison between the arrangements of these regimes, to distinguish its main features. Lastly, an autoregressive model is estimated with vector error correction (VEC) for each country in the sample, in order to set the conditions for an analysis of the efficiency of ITR in these economies. The empirical results of the research suggest that the most flexible inflation targeting regimes (South Africa, Chile, Colombia, South Korea) are relatively more efficient in terms of curbing inflation than more rigid regimes (Brazil and Mexico).

The BRICS’s Economic Growth Performance before and after the International Financial Crisis

Abstract The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the issue of why some BRICS countries are doing much better than others after the international financial crisis. Although these economies share some common economic historical ground, and collectively had been performing much better than the world average in the last decades, their room to maneuver to administrate short-term economic policy to sustain growth in the context of world recession is not similar. Our main assumption is that their different performances can be explained by the degree of their external vulnerabilities, which basically depend on how cautious they were to embrace the liberal policy orientations that became dominant in the 1980s and 1990s with the so-called new macroeconomic consensus.