Carmem Aparecida Feijó

Quão heterogêneo é o setor informal brasileiro? Uma proposta de classificação de atividades baseada na Ecinf

The aim of this paper is to present a classification of sectors for the Brazilian economy according to different degrees of informality in the organization of the production. The paper classifies informal activities in three levels: high, medium and low informality. Considering that there is no clear line dividing formal and informal work, we assume that there is a continuum of situations where the characteristics of decent work are more or less observed. The paper concludes that to combat informality economic policy should pursuit economic growth and act taking in consideration the differences in the organization of the informal sector.

Reputação, credibilidade e transparência da autoridade monetária e o estado de expectativa

For the development of a theory that looks for an explanation about how monetary policy affects the economy it is necessary to understand how economic agents make decisions based on their expectations and confidence. Therein, it is important to know the determinants of expectations and confidence and how these are affected by monetary authority. Using as theoretical references (i) the scheme developed by Dequech (1999a) about the determinants of expectations and confidence; (ii) the assumptions that support the non-neutrality of money; and (iii) the literature about reputation, credibility and transparency, the article seeks to demonstrate the influences of reputation-credibility-transparency trinomial for the state of expectations of the agents, and, consequently, for the monetary policy capacity to affect employment and income keeping prices stability.

A medida de utilização de capacidade conceitos e metodologias

O objetivo deste texto e discutir um tema pouco debatido em analises de conjuntura no Brasil que e a precisao das estatisticas sobre o grau de utilizacao da capacidade produtiva. Partimos da pesquisa de Robin Marris sobre a economia da utilizacao de capacidade e sugerimos duas interpretacoes do comportamento das firmas com respeito a tomada de decisoes sobre como utilizar a capacidade produtiva. A seguir, avaliamos dois tipos de metodologia para mensuracao de capacidade. Concluimos que o conceito de capacidade nao apresenta uma definicao teorica unica e sua mensuracao e bastante dificil, implicando que a interpretacao dos resultados estimados deve levar em conta as restricoes conceituais e metodologicas da variavel grau de utilizacao de capacidade.

Liberal versus neo-developmental convention to growth: why has Brazil shown a poor performance since the 1980s?

The main goal of our paper is to provide analytical arguments to explain why Brazil has not been able to restore its long-term capacity for economic growth, especially compared with its economy in the 1950-1979 period (7.3 per cent per year on average) or even with a select number of emerging economies in the 1980-2010 period(6.7 per cent per year on average, against 2.3 per cent per year on average in Brazil in the same period). We build our idea of convention to growth based on the Keynesian concept of convention. For our purposes, this concept could be briefly summarized as the way in which the set of public and private economic decisions related to different objectives, such as how much to produce and invest, how much to charge for products and services, how to finance public and private debt, how to finance research and development, and so on, are indefinitely - or at least until there is no change- carried out by the political, economic and social institutions. This analytical reference can be connected to the Neo-Schumpeterian National Innovation System (NIS) concept, which emphasizes not only institutions associated with science and technology per se, but also the complex interaction among them and other institutions. In this paper we identify two conventions to long-term growth in the last three decades in Brazil: the liberal and the neo-developmental. We show that the poor performance in the Brazilian economy in terms of real GDP growth from the 1980s on can be explained by a weak coordination between short-term macroeconomic policies and long-term industrial and technological policies. This weak coordination, in turn, can be associated with the prevalence of the liberal convention from the 1990s on, which has emphasized price stabilization to the detriment of a neo-developmental strategy whose primary goal is to sustain higher rates of growth and full employment in Brazil.

A estagnação da produtividade do trabalho na indústria brasileira nos anos 1996-2007: análise nacional, regional e setorial

The paper presents a regional and sectorial analysis of labor productivity in industry in the years 1996-2007 from the data of PIA-IBGE using the shift-share method. Labor productivity was weighted in each sector and region for their respective participation in national employment. The results of calculations of the components of growth in labor productivity showed that in most sectors and regions, the modified structural component of growth has a low relationship with the growth of labor productivity. It was concluded that productivity growth in sectors and regions was due more to regional competitiveness than to the changes in the production structure. It was also found that growth of less developed regions was insufficient to compensate for the reduction in the Southeast region and therefore there was no increase in labor productivity at the national level.

EXPLORATORY NOTE ON CONSUMPTION AND SOCIOECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION IN BRAZIL BASED ON EVIDENCES FROM THE FAMILY EXPENDITURE SURVEY

The present study aims at analysing different stratification criteria used in Brazil by market research companies and academia, taking into account family pro‐ files based on socioeconomic and demographic variables. It presents different strata profiles generated by two nationally well‐known stratification criteria based on survey data from the two last editions of the Brazilian Family Expenditure Survey (2002/2003 and 2008/2009)and it also provides evidence on patterns of change over time. The evidence corroborates that an economic improvement took place from 2003 to 2009 for those individuals classified in the lower socioeconomic stratum, together with an increase of total and per capita average income, and an increase of expenses. On the other hand, a visible reduction of savings for families in all economic strata and higher levels of household indebtedness was also noticed.The present study aims at analysing different stratification criteria used in Brazil by market research companies and academia, taking into account family profiles based on socioeconomic and demographic variables. It presents different strata profiles generated by two nationally well-known stratification criteria based on survey data from the two last editions of the Brazilian Family Expenditure Survey (2002/2003 and 2008/2009)and it also provides evidence on patterns of change over time. The evidence corroborates that an economic improvement took place from 2003 to 2009 for those individuals classified in the lower socioeconomic stratum, together with an increase of total and per capita average income, and an increase of expenses. On the other hand, a visible reduction of savings for families in all economic strata and higher levels of household indebtedness was also noticed.

Decisão de preços em economias monetárias e metas de inflação: a difícil conciliação entre crescimento e estabilidade de preços

Inflation targeting and price-making in monetary economies: is it possible to conciliate growth with price stability? - Recently a number of countries have adopted explicit inflation targets as a guide for policy since a numerical target is attractive for anchoring inflation expectations. Monetary policy, under inflation targeting, is implemented grounded on handling only one instrument to control inflation ? the interest rate. Nevertheless, the perseverance on using this kind of rule brings negative consequences for the expectations about potential economic growth. Hence, the paper aims at making evident the process of price-making in market economies and discuss how the monetary policy, under inflation targeting, affects positively the process of inflation expectations formation, however with harmful consequences upon expectations regarding the output growth.

Policy space in a financially integrated world: The Brazilian case in the 2000s

This paper makes the argument that policy space in Brazil has been narrowing since the trade and capital opening made in the 1990s. This is so because the opening of the Brazilian economy has implied that real and nominal interest rates have been kept high and the real exchange rate has shown a trend towards appreciation. The behavior of the main macroeconomic prices of the Brazilian economy brought, as a minimum, two negative results to economic growth. On one hand, the annual average growth rate was reduced because structural change had been moving towards less technologically productive sectors, which deepened deindustrialization. On the other hand, short-term economic growth had become more volatile, given that the evolution of the investment position of the country increased its potential degree of external fragility. Key words: Policy space, Brazilian economy, Balance of payment dominance.JEL: O11, O14. Politicki prostor u finansijski integrisanom svetu: slucaj Brazila 2000-ihU radu je argumentovano da se politicki prostor u Brazilu sužava od uvođenja trgovinske i kapitalne otvorenosti tokom 1990-ih. To je tako zato sto je otvaranje brazilske ekonomije impliciralo da su realne i nominalne kamatne stope držane na visokom nivou i da je realni devizni kurs pokazao trend ka apresijaciji. Ponasanje osnovnih makroekonomskih cena brazilske privrede dovelo je do, najmanje, dva negativna ishoda po ekonomski rast. S jedne strane, godisnja prosecna stopa rasta je smanjena zato sto su se strukturne promene kretale ka manje tehnoloski produktivnim sektorima, sto je produbilo deindustriјalizaciju. S druge strane, kratkorocni ekonomski rast je postao nestabilniji, s obzirom na to da je razvoj investicione pozicije zemlje povecao njen potencijalni stepen spoljne osetljivosti.Kljucne reci: Politicki prostor, brazilska ekonomija, dominacija platnog bilansa.

Manufacturing Industry and Growth: An Interpretation for the Performance of the Brazilian Economy in the1990s and 2000s

The loss of importance of the manufacturing industry in GDP greatly explains the poor performance of the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, despite the improvement in the standard of living of the population. In this chapter, it is assumed that the growth of developing economies is associated with structural change, and its dynamism depends on how the stimuli from aggregate demand are transmitted to the productive structure to promote change toward the development of productive sectors with the greatest potential to add value. In this sense, a virtuous growth cycle, in Myrdal and Kaldor terms, will emerge if short-term economic polices allow policy space for the implementation of long-term developmental policies, which has not been observed in the Brazilian case in the 1990s and 2000s.

WHY DOES THE INVESTMENT RATE DO NOT INCREASE? CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND STABILIZATION POLICY IN THE 1990S AND 2000S IN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT The stabilization of inflation was conquered in the mid-1990s, but since then the Brazilian economy has not shown a stable growth trend. This article discusses how the maintenance of a high interest rate in Brazil has affected growth through its impact on investment decision. In a macroeconomic environment with a relatively high degree of uncertainty, decisions to accumulate capital rely heavily on retained earnings and are negatively affected by the persistent high level of interest rates. Our econometric exercise reveals that the interest rate is the most important variable to explain the investment rate, and that financialization negatively impacts physical capital accumulation.