Elias Naumann

Changing Retirement Transitions in Times of Paradigmatic Political Change: Toward Growing Inequalities

For almost three decades since the 1970s, many European countries followed a strategy of early retirement to mediate the repercussions of increasing globalization and rising economic insecurities (Blossfeld et al., 2006, 2011). Initially intended only as a temporary strategy, early retirement soon turned into a common political practice. The establishment of early retirement as a labor market phenomenon was accompanied by the gradual emergence of an “early retirement culture,” that is, the shared perception by both employers and employees of early retirement as a “normal” way to exit from employment. However, given foreseeable population and labor force aging, many European governments in the last decade have taken a paradigmatic shift from “early exit” to “active aging” policies aiming at the promotion of longer labor market maintenance of workers approaching formal retirement ages.

Do increasing reform pressures change welfare state attitudes? An experimental study on population ageing, pension reform preferences, political knowledge and ideology

ABSTRACT It is a perennial issue in the public and the scientific debate whether increased pressures to reform due to the financial crisis or population ageing erode welfare state support. Surprisingly, our knowledge of how individuals change their attitudes in hard times is still limited – both theoretically and empirically. We rely on newly available data from a survey experiment in a representative German online survey and exogenously manipulate the perceived pressure to reform (due to an ageing society). We show that people indeed change their reform preferences when faced with an ageing society: the strong opposition to increasing the retirement age decreases. Further analyses reveal that not all groups within society react to increased reform pressures in the same way: political knowledge but also political partisanship do moderate the strength and the direction of the attitude change.

Increasing pressures and support for public healthcare in Europe

We present the results from a natural survey-experiment that tests the effect of a sudden increase in health risks - a flu epidemic - on the publics support for government involvement in health care provision. The data covers 17 European countries and around 10,000 respondents. It was collected in 2008 as part of the European Social Survey. We find that the flu epidemic led to a significant decline in support. Interestingly, changes where located predominantly among those respondents that are self-described right-leaning in ideological terms. The effects of the flu epidemic lasted several weeks and in some instances persisted as long as it was possible to track with the data (i.e., a month). Given that this was a single-event stimulus such a comparably long-lasting effect is noteworthy for both public policy-makers and political scientists.

Attitudes towards highly skilled and low-skilled immigration in Europe: A survey experiment in 15 European countries: ATTITUDES TOWARDS HIGHLY SKILLED AND LOW-SKILLED IMMIGRATION IN EUROPE

To what extent do economic concerns drive anti‐migrant attitudes? Key theoretical arguments extract two central motives: increased labour market competition and the fiscal burden linked to the influx of migrants. This article provides new evidence regarding the impact of material self‐interest on attitudes towards immigrants. It reports the results of a survey experiment embedded in representative surveys in 15 European countries before and after the European refugee crisis in 2014. As anticipated by the fiscal burden argument, it is found that rich natives prefer highly skilled over low‐skilled migration more than low‐income respondents do. Moreover, the study shows that these tax concerns among the wealthy are stronger if fiscal exposure to migration is high. No support is found for the labour market competition argument predicting that natives will be most opposed to migrants with similar skills. The results suggest that highly skilled migrants are preferred over low‐skilled migrants irrespective of natives’ skill levels.

Die Alterung der Gesellschaft und der Generationenkonflikt in Europa / Aging Societies and Intergenerational Conflict in Europe

Zusammenfassung Vor dem Hintergrund alternder Gesellschaften in Europa wird zunehmend vor einem Generationenkonflikt gewarnt. Doch haben Alte und Junge tatsächlich unterschiedliche Interessen und damit entgegen gesetzte Politikpräferenzen? Hierauf geben wir eine theoretische und eine empirische Antwort. Wir zeigen spieltheoretisch, dass Alte wie Junge ein Interesse an intergenerationaler Umverteilung haben sollten. Ein Konflikt bezüglich Transferzahlungen zwischen den Generationen ist erst zu erwarten, wenn die Gesellschaft altert. Unsere empirische Auswertung basiert auf Umfragedaten aus 27 EU-Mitgliedsländern im Jahr 2009 und zeigt einen schwachen Konflikt zwischen den Generationen. Die Zustimmung der Alten zu einer altenfreundlichen Ausgabenpolitik mit mehr Renten- und weniger Bildungsausgaben ist etwas stärker als die der Jungen. Allerdings finden wir keine Hinweise, dass der Konflikt zwischen Alten und Jungen mit einer Alterung der Gesellschaft stärker wird. Summary The possibility of upcoming intergenerational conflict in an aging society is a recurrent topic in scholarly and public debate. However, do old and young people really have opposing political preferences? We give a theoretical as well as an empirical answer to this question. Game theoretical modelling leads us to the conclusion that both old and young people might be expected to favor intergenerational redistribution, but also that aging within society might heighten the possibility of generational conflict. Empirical analyses based on survey data from twenty-seven EU member states reveal a rather weak conflict status. We find a small intergenerational difference in regard to preferences for governmental spending on education and pensions. Old people as compared to young people have a slight preference for a policy favoring old people. We do not find evidence that aging intensifies intergenerational conflict. Our results suggest that intergenerational conflict could be mitigated by adopting an active policy on aging.

Immigration and support for redistribution: survey experiments in three European countries

Abstract In times of increasing globalisation scholars put considerable efforts into understanding the consequences of immigration to the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany and the Netherlands) in order to examine whether and how individuals change their preference for redistribution when faced with immigration. Theoretically, citizens with high incomes should be especially likely to withdraw their support for redistribution because they fear the increased fiscal burden, whereas other types of citizens might ask for more compensation for the increased labour market risks caused by immigration. The empirical evidence reveals that only respondents with high incomes and those who face low labour market competition withdraw support for redistribution when faced with immigration.

Reformbedarf im deutschen Gesundheitssystem aus Sicht der Bevölkerung

In diesem Beitrag werden die Umstellungen der Bevölkerung zu Reformen im deutschen Gesundheitssystem untersucht. Als Datengrundlage dient das German Internet Panel von 2013. Unter den Befragten ist ein breiter Konsens zu erkennen, dass der Staat eine umfassende, solidarisch finanzierte Gesundheitsversorgunggewährleisten solle. Etwa die Hälfe der Unfrageteilnehmerfordert, mehr Geld für die Gesundheitsversorgung auszugeben. Nur eine Minderheit spricht sich für Kostensenkungen aus. Etwa ein Drittel der Befragten wäre bereit, für Verbesserungen der Gesundheitsversorgung einen größeren privaten Anteil als bisher zu leisten. Auch wenn in früheren Umfragen noch nie eine so hohe Bereitschaft für steigende Gesundheitsausgaben gemessen werden konnte, stößt diese an Grenzen. Die Erhöhung von Krankenversicherungsbeiträgen wie auch die Einschränkung medizinischer Leistungen werden von vielen Befragten abgelehnt. Geringer sind die Widerstände gegen Steuererhöhungen.

Demand for Healthcare Reform by Public Opinion and Medical Professionals: A Comparative Survey Analysis

To cope with rising healthcare costs, healthcare systems in advanced welfare states are undergoing quite significant changes including privatization and the introduction of private co-payments. This chapter argues that public opinion and doctors’ preferences are key to understand the reform potential of healthcare systems. It provides an empirical study of public and doctors’ satisfaction with the existing healthcare system in 11 countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the Unites States). The study shows that doctors are less status quo oriented than the public. It seems that not medical professionals but rather the public is a potential veto player blocking reforms. The Netherlands and Britain are the countries with the lowest level of reform demand, possibly because they have experienced a long period of large-scale health reforms. The USA represents the other extreme with widespread reform demand.

The Popularity of Pension and Unemployment Policies Revisited: The Erosion of Public Support in Britain and Germany

This chapter provides a comparative analysis of the long-term development of public attitudes towards pension and unemployment policies in Great Britain and Germany (1985–2013). The British and German welfare states are still rather popular. Public support for government responsibility for the elderly is stronger than for the unemployed. Moreover, a trade-off in expenditure preferences favours spending on pensions over spending on unemployment benefits. Claims toward an increased polarization between generations, union/non-union members and left/right supporters seem overblown. Welfare reforms have not led to a counter-reaction but the continued reform pressures have led to a partial erosion of public welfare state support.

Class, Union, or Party Allegiance? Comparing Pension Reform Preferences in Britain and Germany

This chapter explores to what degree public opinion, particularly specific social groups including social classes, retirees, members of trade unions, and supporters of political parties, defend the status quo or are willing to support reforms. It distinguishes two major dimensions of pension-specific attitudes, retrenchment and redistribution. Using data from the 2008 European Social Survey, the study compares two countries with different pension systems, organized interests, and party systems: Britain and Germany. Our results show pronounced cross-national differences in attitudes towards the redistributive character of the pensions system but less variation with regard to retrenchment of pension benefits. Political affiliations show also more variation than social classes, indicating that ideological alignment is more pronounced than social class.