Elisa Trujillo-Baute

Impacts of Intermittent Renewable Generation on Electricity System Costs

A successful deployment of power generation coming from variable renewable sources, such as wind and solar photovoltaic, strongly depends on the economic cost of system integration. This paper, in seeking to look beyond the impact of renewable generation on the evolution of the total economic costs associated with the operation of the electricity system, aims to estimate the sensitivity of balancing market requirements and costs to the variable and non-fully predictable nature of intermittent renewable generation. The estimations reported in this paper for the Spanish electricity system stress the importance of both attributes as well as power system flexibility when accounting for the cost of balancing services.

Analysing the Sensitivity of Electricity System Operational Costs to Deviations in Supply and Demand

Increasing renewable penetration has given rise to a series of challenges as regards the ability of electricity systems to balance supply and demand, particularly with high levels of intermittent renewable generation. This new scenario requires a detailed quantitative assessment of the way in which the electricity system might both deliver and accommodate higher levels of RES-E generation and of the associated economic costs for the consumer. The estimations reported in this paper for the Spanish electricity system stress the importance of demand imbalance when accounting for the cost of balancing services, in contrast with previous studies that have focused their attention more specifically on supply effects.

The stabilizing effect of hydro reservoir levels on intraday power prices under wind forecast errors

The power system has to deal with three main sources of uncertainty: demand uncertainty and load prediction errors, failure of power plants and uncertainty of wind. The growing share of wind and other intermittent generation sources in the European supply increases the uncertainty about power production in day-ahead and longer-term predictions. As EU member states increase the deployment of wind power and other intermittent renewable energy sources, the intraday and balancing market will gain more interest, as additional demand for reserve and response operations is needed. Hence, it becomes relevant to analyse the effect of wind power forecasting errors on intraday power prices. A higher forecast error will increase the need of intraday markets to balance out the oversupply or deficit of wind power on an hourly basis. This oversupply or deficit can be corrected though flexible hydropower plants; however the power price is highly influenced by the fluctuations in the reservoir level (Huisman et. al [2013]). In this paper, we question to what extent hydropower a stabilizing effect has on the impact of wind forecast errors on NordPool intraday prices. To do so, we examine the peak and off peak imbalance power prices for the Scandinavian market (ELBAS) from 2011 until 2013 with a Markov regime-switching model in periods with low and high hydro reservoir levels. Results indicate that under wind forecast error, the use of hydropower capacity in intraday markets is proven to be an effective volatility control mechanism. However, the price stabilizing effect of hydropower capacity does not take place at all times.

The Economic Impact of Electricity Losses

Although electricity losses constitute an important, but inevitable, amount of wasted resources (and a share that has to be funded), they remain one of the lesser known parts of an electricity system, and this despite the fact that the decisions of generators, transmission and distribution system operators and consumers all impact on them. In this paper we analyse the effects of such losses from two perspectives: from that of consumption or outflows and from that of generation or inflows. Given that end-user consumption varies across the day, consumption has direct implications for electricity losses. Indeed, demand-side management policies seek to encourage consumers to use less energy during peak hours and to reduce network congestion. At the same time, from the perspective of generation, the recent growth in distributed generation has modified the traditional, unidirectional, downward flows in electricity systems. This affects losses as energy is produced in the lower voltage network, which is closer to points of consumption. In this paper we evaluate the impact of consumption patterns and different generation technologies on energy losses. To do so, we draw on data from a real electricity system with a high level of renewable penetration, namely, that of Spain between 2011 and 2013. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to analyse the real impact of consumption and the effect of each generation technology on energy losses, offering an opportunity to evaluate the potential benefits of demand-side management policies and distributed generation. Based on our results, we make a number of regulatory recommendations aimed at exploiting to the full these potential benefits. Our results should serve as a baseline for countries that are in the early stages of implementing these policies.

Market Structure and Technical Efficiency of Spanish Defense Contractors

This paper uses an output-oriented stochastic distance function to compute defense contractors’ technical efficiency as a measure of performance. Then, nesting a market structure and conduct equation into the frontier, we identify firm and industry factors that affect the observed inefficiency levels. The empirical results confirm that there exist multi-directional causal correlations among market structure, conduct, and performance of defense contractors. In addition, the paper shows that there exists a great variability among the different sectors that compose the defense industrial base. Therefore, policies oriented to influence the industry must take into account the multi-directional causal relation among its components.

Regulatory Environment and Firm Performance in EU Telecommunications Services

We empirically estimate the effects of regulated access prices and firms’ multinational status on firm performance by using firm, corporate group, and country level information for the European broadband market between 2002 and 2010. Three measures of firm performance are used, namely: market share, turnover and productivity. Special attention is paid to differences in the impact on the performance measures depending on a firm’s position as either a market incumbent or entrant. We find that while access prices have a negative effect on entrants’ market share and turnover, the effect on incumbents’ market share, turnover and productivity is positive. Further, we find that multinational entrants perform better than national entrants in terms of their market share but worse in terms of their turnover and productivity. The opposite is true of incumbent multinationals which perform better than nationals in terms of their turnover and productivity but worse in terms of their market share. This confirms that a firm’s multinational status has a significant impact on its performance, and that this impact differs for incumbents and entrants. Finally, when evaluating the impact of access prices on firm performance at the mean performance of national and multinational firms, we find that the impact of access prices is lower for multinational than for national firms.

Drivers of R&D investment in the defence industry: evidence from Spain

This paper analyses the main drivers of R&D investment in the Spanish defence sector at the firm level. In particular, we analyse the factors influencing the decision to innovate or not, and those that affect the relative amount of resources devoted to the innovative process. Using data from the Ministry of Defence and the balance sheets from over 650 companies from 2003 to 2008, a Heckman selection model is applied to account for the firm’s decision to perform R&D investment (or not). Our estimation results show that for firms holding operations within the Spanish defence industry, both the long-term strategic decision on R&D engagement and the short-term decision of R&D investment were driven by the intensity of their participation in contracting with the Ministry of Defence; hence, the demand pull hypothesis is confirmed.

Are Energy Market Integrations a Green Light for FDI

This paper studies the effect of energy market integration (EMI) on foreign direct investment (FDI). EMIs diminish energy uncertainty and price volatility in the host country and affect FDI through two channels: first, by harmonizing energy prices and, second, by reducing price dispersion. FDI may, as a result, increase both within and outside the EMI area, through energy stability mechanisms and price mechanisms, respectively. An empirical application on a global dataset including bilateral FDI data, during 2003-2012, using the gravity equation, shows that the integration of Portugal and Spains electricity market in 2007 increased the amount of FDIs participants. Additionally, a positive increase in FDI from neighboring countries (in this instance, France), albeit lower in magnitude, is observed.

Analysing the potential economic value of energy storage

This paper examines the likely market for electrical energy storage from a market viewpoint, taking market prices as given and determining the extent to which a strategy of arbitrage across the day, buying at the lowest price times at night and selling at the highest times during the early evening, generates profits in the British context. The paper sets out the potential problems as the market moves to absorb increasing amounts of wind, then characterises the nature of prices, which reveals the importance of a strategy in which power is absorbed into store for a relatively few hours of the day and discharged over a relatively few hours. The paper models the ongoing costs of operation and compares them with revenues, but does not consider construction costs. It argues that additional incentives may need to be put into place in order to render storage over relatively longer periods more attractive.

Electricity Regulation and Economic Growth

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Although the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has been extensively analysed in the empirical literature, this framework has not been used to estimate the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Understanding this effect is essential for the assessment of regulatory policy. Specifically, we assess the effects of two major regulations, renewable energy promotion costs and network cost, on electricity consumption and growth. A dataset for the period 2007-2013 and 22 European countries was compiled based on CEER reports and EUROSTAT databases. The results of the empirical analysis show that the two regulation instruments have a negative effect on electricity consumption and economic growth and provide estimates of their effects on growth in quantitative terms.