Elizabeth Flint

Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

For the purposes of making many informed conservation decisions, the main goal for data collection is to assess population status and allow prediction of the consequences of candidate management actions. Reducing the bias and variance of estimates of population parameters reduces uncertainty in population status and projections, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty under which a population manager must make a decision. In capture-recapture studies, imperfect detection of individuals, unobservable life-history states, local movement outside study areas, and tag loss can cause bias or precision problems with estimates of population parameters. Furthermore, excessive disturbance to individuals during capture-recapture sampling may be of concern because disturbance may have demographic consequences. We address these problems using as an example a monitoring program for Black-footed Albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) nesting populations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To mitigate these estimation problems, we describe a synergistic combination of sampling design and modeling approaches. Solutions include multiple capture periods per season and multistate, robust design statistical models, dead recoveries and incidental observations, telemetry and data loggers, buffer areas around study plots to neutralize the effect of local movements outside study plots, and double banding and statistical models that account for band loss. We also present a variation on the robust capture-recapture design and a corresponding statistical model that minimizes disturbance to individuals. For the albatross case study, this less invasive robust design was more time efficient and, when used in combination with a traditional robust design, reduced the standard error of detection probability by 14% with only two hours of additional effort in the field. These field techniques and associated modeling approaches are applicable to studies of most taxa being marked and in some cases have individually been applied to studies of birds, fish, herpetofauna, and mammals.

US Coral Reefs in the Line and Phoenix Islands, Central Pacific Ocean: Status, Threats and Significance

This is the second of two chapters on the coral reefs of the five US Line and Phoenix Islands, consisting of Baker, Howland and Jarvis Islands, Kingman Reef, ; and Palmyra Atoll (Fig. 16.1). The previous chapter (Chapter 15, Maragos et al.) covers the history, geology, oceanography and biology, while this chapter covers the status, threats and significance of the five. All are low reef islets or atolls in the central Pacific Ocean administered by the US Fish and Wildlife Service as National Wildlife Refuges. These 5 Refuges are among 20 within the tropical Pacific and among 10 that protect coral reefs. Together they are geographically a part of the largest series of fully protected marine areas under unified management in the world.

Trends in reproductive success of Hawaiian seabirds: is guild membership a good criterion for choosing indicator species?

Because it is rarely possible to monitor all species that occur in sensitive or threatened ecosystems, much theoretical consideration has been given to the process of choosing indicator species. We evaluated whether foraging guild classification or nest site might be an adequate means to select indicator species for monitoring the reproductive success of a suite of Hawaiian seabird species. We examined the reproductive success of six species representing three foraging guilds and two types of nest sites over an 18-year period. For two of the three foraging guilds, there was a strong correlation between the reproductive success of birds from the same guild, and there was a weaker correlation for the third guild. In contrast, there were no significant reproductive success correlations for pairs of species from different foraging guilds but with the same nest sites. Thus, the within-guild correlations are likely to be driven by guild-specific food availability rather than by similarity in nest site. Because of the weak nature of one of the within-guild correlations, and because there is little detailed information on the causes of nest failure in this system, we recommend continuing to monitor multiple indicator species per foraging guild.

Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?

More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km2). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis; black-footed albatross, P. nigripes; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.

Ecological Impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific

The authors thank Cisco Werner (NOAA/NMFS) for proposing this special issue and encouraging our submission. We thank each of the editors, Stephanie Herring, Peter Stott, and Nikos Christidis, for helpful guidance and support throughout the submittal process. We also thank each of the anonymous external reviewers for thoughtful guidance and suggestions to improve the manuscript. REB, TO, RV, AH, and BVA are grateful for support from the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program. AC acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation for the following awards: OCE 1537338, OCE 1605365, and OCE 1031971. This is PMEL contribution no. 4698. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government. The views expressed in the article are not necessarily those of the U.S. government. (NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program; OCE 1537338 - National Science Foundation; OCE 1605365 - National Science Foundation; OCE 1031971 - National Science Foundation)