Elizabeth Hazel

Countdown to 2015: a decade of tracking progress for maternal, newborn, and child survival

Conceived in 2003 and born in 2005 with the launch of its first report and country profiles, the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival has reached its originally proposed lifespan. Major reductions in the deaths of mothers and children have occurred since Countdowns inception, even though most of the 75 priority countries failed to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. The coverage of life-saving interventions tracked in Countdown increased steadily over time, but wide inequalities persist between and within countries. Key drivers of coverage such as financing, human resources, commodities, and conducive health policies also showed important, yet insufficient increases. As a multistakeholder initiative of more than 40 academic, international, bilateral, and civil society institutions, Countdown was successful in monitoring progress and raising the visibility of the health of mothers, newborns, and children. Lessons learned from this initiative have direct bearing on monitoring progress during the Sustainable Development Goals era.

The Accelerated Child Survival and Development programme in west Africa: a retrospective evaluation

BACKGROUND UNICEF implemented the Accelerated Child Survival and Development (ACSD) programme in 11 west African countries between 2001 and 2005 to reduce child mortality by at least 25% by the end of 2006. We undertook a retrospective evaluation of the programme in Benin, Ghana, and Mali. METHODS We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys to compare changes in coverage for 14 ACSD interventions, nutritional status (stunting and wasting), and mortality in children younger than 5 years in the ACSD focus districts with those in the remainder of every country (comparison areas), after excluding major metropolitan areas. FINDINGS Mortality in children younger than 5 years decreased in ACSD areas by 13% in Benin (absolute decrease 18 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0.12), 20% in Ghana (21 per 1000 livebirths, p=0.10), and 24% in Mali (63 per 1000 livebirths, p<0.0001), but these decreases were not greater than those in comparison areas in Benin (25%; absolute decrease 36 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0.15) or Mali (31%; 76 per 1000 livebirths, p=0.30; comparison data not available for Ghana). ACSD districts showed significantly greater increases than did comparison areas in coverage for preventive interventions delivered through outreach and campaign strategies in Ghana and Mali, but not Benin. Coverage in ACSD areas for correct treatment of childhood pneumonia, diarrhoea, and malaria did not differ significantly from before to after programme implementation in Benin and Mali, but decreased significantly in Ghana for malaria (from 78% to 53%, p<0.0001) and diarrhoea (from 39% to 28%, p=0.05). We recorded no significant improvements in nutritional status attributable to ACSD in the three countries. INTERPRETATION The ACSD project did not accelerate child survival in Benin and Mali focus districts relative to comparison areas, probably because coverage for effective treatment interventions for malaria and pneumonia were not accelerated, causes of neonatal deaths and undernutrition were not addressed, and stock shortages of insecticide-treated nets restricted the potential effect of this intervention. Changes in policy and nationwide programme strengthening may have benefited from inputs by UNICEF and other partners, making an acceleration effect in the ACSD focus districts difficult to capture. FUNDING UNICEF, Canadian International Development Agency, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal do Nível Superior (Brazil), and Fulbright Fellowship.

Malawi and Millennium Development Goal 4: a Countdown to 2015 country case study

BACKGROUND Several years in advance of the 2015 endpoint for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Malawi was already thought to be one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa likely to meet the MDG 4 target of reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Countdown to 2015 therefore selected the Malawi National Statistical Office to lead an in-depth country case study, aimed mainly at explaining the countrys success in improving child survival. METHODS We estimated child and neonatal mortality for the years 2000-14 using five district-representative household surveys. The study included recalculation of coverage indicators for that period, and used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to attribute the child lives saved in the years from 2000 to 2013 to various interventions. We documented the adoption and implementation of policies and programmes affecting the health of women and children, and developed estimates of financing. FINDINGS The estimated mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined substantially in the study period, from 247 deaths (90% CI 234-262) per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 71 deaths (58-83) in 2013, with an annual rate of decline of 5·4%. The most rapid mortality decline occurred in the 1-59 months age group; neonatal mortality declined more slowly (from 50 to 23 deaths per 1000 livebirths), representing an annual rate of decline of 3·3%. Nearly half of the coverage indicators have increased by more than 20 percentage points between 2000 and 2014. Results from the LiST analysis show that about 280,000 childrens lives were saved between 2000 and 2013, attributable to interventions including treatment for diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria (23%), insecticide-treated bednets (20%), vaccines (17%), reductions in wasting (11%) and stunting (9%), facility birth care (7%), and prevention and treatment of HIV (7%). The amount of funding allocated to the health sector has increased substantially, particularly to child health and HIV and from external sources, but remains below internationally agreed targets. Key policies to address the major causes of child mortality and deliver high-impact interventions at scale throughout Malawi began in the late 1990s and intensified in the latter half of the 2000s and into the 2010s, backed by health-sector-wide policies to improve womens and childrens health. INTERPRETATION This case study confirmed that Malawi had achieved MDG 4 for child survival by 2013. Our findings suggest that this was achieved mainly through the scale-up of interventions that are effective against the major causes of child deaths (malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea), programmes to reduce child undernutrition and mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and some improvements in the quality of care provided around birth. The Government of Malawi was among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to adopt evidence-based policies and implement programmes at scale to prevent unnecessary child deaths. Much remains to be done, building on this success and extending it to higher proportions of the population and targeting continued high neonatal mortality rates. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, The World Bank, Government of Australia, Government of Canada, Government of Norway, Government of Sweden, Government of the UK, and UNICEF.

Comparing modelled to measured mortality reductions: applying the Lives Saved Tool to evaluation data from the Accelerated Child Survival Programme in West Africa

Background The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) projects the magnitude of mortality reduction based on baseline coverage, demographic characteristics and coverage targets. As a validation exercise, we compared neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality reductions as projected by LiST to changes in mortality measured through demographic surveys in Ghana and Mali as part of a recently completed, retrospective evaluation of a child survival programme. Methods Using coverage and other information collected during the evaluation, we modelled the predicted mortality reduction, using logical assumptions to fill gaps if no data were available. We performed a sensitivity analysis on several indicators for which we used a proxy, using the results to examine model sensitivity and readdress our assumptions. Results In Ghana, the modelled mortality reductions were within the 95% confidence boundaries of the measured reduction. In Mali LiST significantly underestimated the reduction. Several coverage indicators were found to influence the projection, specifically case management of serious neonatal illness in both countries and pneumonia treatment, vitamin A measles treatment and breastfeeding promotion in Mali. Conclusions We consider LiST to be a useful tool given the limitations of the available data. Although the model was a good match in Ghana, we identified several limiting factors with the input data in the Mali projection. This exercise highlights the importance of continually improving the availability of sound demographic, epidemiological and intervention coverage data at district and national levels. More comparative studies are needed to fully assess the strengths and weaknesses of LiST.

Independent Evaluation of the Integrated Community Case Management of Childhood Illness Strategy in Malawi Using a National Evaluation Platform Design

We evaluated the impact of integrated community case management of childhood illness (iCCM) on careseeking for childhood illness and child mortality in Malawi, using a National Evaluation Platform dose-response design with 27 districts as units of analysis. “Dose” variables included density of iCCM providers, drug availability, and supervision, measured through a cross-sectional cellular telephone survey of all iCCM-trained providers. “Response” variables were changes between 2010 and 2014 in careseeking and mortality in children aged 2–59 months, measured through household surveys. iCCM implementation strength was not associated with changes in careseeking or mortality. There were fewer than one iCCM-ready provider per 1,000 under-five children per district. About 70% of sick children were taken outside the home for care in both 2010 and 2014. Careseeking from iCCM providers increased over time from about 2% to 10%; careseeking from other providers fell by a similar amount. Likely contributors to the failure to find impact include low density of iCCM providers, geographic targeting of iCCM to “hard-to-reach” areas although women did not identify distance from a provider as a barrier to health care, and displacement of facility careseeking by iCCM careseeking. This suggests that targeting iCCM solely based on geographic barriers may need to be reconsidered.

Effects of the integrated Community Case Management of Childhood Illness Strategy on Child Mortality in Ethiopia: A Cluster Randomized Trial

We conducted a cluster randomized trial of the effects of the integrated community case management of childhood illness (iCCM) strategy on careseeking for and coverage of correct treatment of suspected pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria, and mortality among children aged 2–59 months in 31 districts of the Oromia region of Ethiopia. We conducted baseline and endline coverage and mortality surveys approximately 2 years apart, and assessed program strength after about 1 year of implementation. Results showed strong iCCM implementation, with iCCM-trained workers providing generally good quality of care. However, few sick children were taken to iCCM providers (average 16 per month). Difference in differences analyses revealed that careseeking for childhood illness was low and similar in both study arms at baseline and endline, and increased only marginally in intervention (22.9–25.7%) and comparison (23.3–29.3%) areas over the study period (P = 0.77). Mortality declined at similar rates in both study arms. Ethiopias iCCM program did not generate levels of demand and utilization sufficient to achieve significant increases in intervention coverage and a resulting acceleration in reductions in child mortality. This evaluation has allowed Ethiopia to strengthen its strategic approaches to increasing population demand and use of iCCM services.

Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Evaluation of Community-Based Treatment of Childhood Illnesses through Household Surveys

Community case management (CCM) is a strategy for training and supporting workers at the community level to provide treatment for the three major childhood diseases—diarrhea, fever (indicative of malaria), and pneumonia—as a complement to facility-based care. Many low- and middle-income countries are now implementing CCM and need to evaluate whether adoption of the strategy is associated with increases in treatment coverage. In this review, we assess the extent to which large-scale, national household surveys can serve as sources of baseline data for evaluating trends in community-based treatment coverage for childhood illnesses. Our examination of the questionnaires used in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in five sub-Saharan African countries shows that questions on care seeking that included a locally adapted option for a community-based provider were present in all the DHS surveys and in some MICS surveys. Most of the surveys also assessed whether appropriate treatments were available, but only one survey collected information on the place of treatment for all three illnesses. This absence of baseline data on treatment source in household surveys will limit efforts to evaluate the effects of the introduction of CCM strategies in the study countries. We recommend alternative analysis plans for assessing CCM programs using household survey data that depend on baseline data availability and on the timing of CCM policy implementation.

Can Community Health Workers Report Accurately on Births and Deaths? Results of Field Assessments in Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali

Introduction Most low-income countries lack complete and accurate vital registration systems. As a result, measures of under-five mortality rates rely mostly on household surveys. In collaboration with partners in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Mali, we assessed the completeness and accuracy of reporting of births and deaths by community-based health workers, and the accuracy of annualized under-five mortality rate estimates derived from these data. Here we report on results from Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali. Method In all three countries, community health workers (CHWs) were trained, equipped and supported to report pregnancies, births and deaths within defined geographic areas over a period of at least fifteen months. In-country institutions collected these data every month. At each study site, we administered a full birth history (FBH) or full pregnancy history (FPH), to women of reproductive age via a census of households in Mali and via household surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using these FBHs/FPHs as a validation data source, we assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates from the community-based method against the retrospective FBH/FPH for rolling twelve-month periods. For each method we calculated total cost, average annual cost per 1,000 population, and average cost per vital event reported. Results On average, CHWs submitted monthly vital event reports for over 95 percent of catchment areas in Ethiopia and Malawi, and for 100 percent of catchment areas in Mali. The completeness of vital events reporting by CHWs varied: we estimated that 30%-90% of annualized expected births (i.e. the number of births estimated using a FPH) were documented by CHWs and 22%-91% of annualized expected under-five deaths were documented by CHWs. Resulting annualized under-five mortality rates based on the CHW vital events reporting were, on average, under-estimated by 28% in Ethiopia, 32% in Malawi, and 9% in Mali relative to comparable FPHs. Costs per vital event reported ranged from

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia.

21 in Malawi to

On bathwater, babies, and designing programs for impact: evaluations of the integrated community case management strategy in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Malawi

149 in Mali. Discussion Our findings in Mali suggest that CHWs can collect complete and high-quality vital events data useful for monitoring annual changes in under-five mortality rates. Both the supervision of CHWs in Mali and the rigor of the associated field-based data quality checks were of a high standard, and the size of the pilot area in Mali was small (comprising of approximately 53,205 residents in 4,200 households). Hence, there are remaining questions about whether this level of vital events reporting completeness and data quality could be maintained if the approach was implemented at scale. Our experience in Malawi and Ethiopia suggests that, in some settings, establishing and maintaining the completeness and quality of vital events reporting by CHWs over time is challenging. In this sense, our evaluation in Mali falls closer to that of an efficacy study, whereas our evaluations in Ethiopia and Malawi are more akin to an effectiveness study. Our overall findings suggest that no one-size-fits-all approach will be successful in guaranteeing complete and accurate reporting of vital events by CHWs.