Elizabeth L. Turner

Fool's Gold: Why Imperfect Reference Tests Are Undermining the Evaluation of Novel Diagnostics: A Reevaluation of 5 Diagnostic Tests for Leptospirosis

We hypothesized that the gold standard for diagnosing leptospirosis is imperfect. We used Bayesian latent class models and random-effects meta-analysis to test this hypothesis and to determine the true accuracy of a range of alternative tests for leptospirosis diagnosis.

Categorisation of continuous risk factors in epidemiological publications: a survey of current practice

Background Reports of observational epidemiological studies often categorise (group) continuous risk factor (exposure) variables. However, there has been little systematic assessment of how categorisation is practiced or reported in the literature and no extended guidelines for the practice have been identified. Thus, we assessed the nature of such practice in the epidemiological literature. Two months (December 2007 and January 2008) of five epidemiological and five general medical journals were reviewed. All articles that examined the relationship between continuous risk factors and health outcomes were surveyed using a standard proforma, with the focus on the primary risk factor. Using the survey results we provide illustrative examples and, combined with ideas from the broader literature and from experience, we offer guidelines for good practice. Results Of the 254 articles reviewed, 58 were included in our survey. Categorisation occurred in 50 (86%) of them. Of those, 42% also analysed the variable continuously and 24% considered alternative groupings. Most (78%) used 3 to 5 groups. No articles relied solely on dichotomisation, although it did feature prominently in 3 articles. The choice of group boundaries varied: 34% used quantiles, 18% equally spaced categories, 12% external criteria, 34% other approaches and 2% did not describe the approach used. Categorical risk estimates were most commonly (66%) presented as pairwise comparisons to a reference group, usually the highest or lowest (79%). Reporting of categorical analysis was mostly in tables; only 20% in figures. Conclusions Categorical analyses of continuous risk factors are common. Accordingly, we provide recommendations for good practice. Key issues include pre-defining appropriate choice of groupings and analysis strategies, clear presentation of grouped findings in tables and figures, and drawing valid conclusions from categorical analyses, avoiding injudicious use of multiple alternative analyses.

Comparative field evaluation of combinations of long-lasting insecticide treated nets and indoor residual spraying, relative to either method alone, for malaria prevention in an area where the main vector is Anopheles arabiensis.

BackgroundLong-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are commonly used together in the same households to improve malaria control despite inconsistent evidence on whether such combinations actually offer better protection than nets alone or IRS alone.MethodsComparative tests were conducted using experimental huts fitted with LLINs, untreated nets, IRS plus untreated nets, or combinations of LLINs and IRS, in an area where Anopheles arabiensis is the predominant malaria vector species. Three LLIN types, Olyset®, PermaNet 2.0® and Icon Life® nets and three IRS treatments, pirimiphos-methyl, DDT, and lambda cyhalothrin, were used singly or in combinations. We compared, number of mosquitoes entering huts, proportion and number killed, proportions prevented from blood-feeding, time when mosquitoes exited the huts, and proportions caught exiting. The tests were done for four months in dry season and another six months in wet season, each time using new intact nets.ResultsAll the net types, used with or without IRS, prevented >99% of indoor mosquito bites. Adding PermaNet 2.0® and Icon Life®, but not Olyset® nets into huts with any IRS increased mortality of malaria vectors relative to IRS alone. However, of all IRS treatments, only pirimiphos-methyl significantly increased vector mortality relative to LLINs alone, though this increase was modest. Overall, median mortality of An. arabiensis caught in huts with any of the treatments did not exceed 29%. No treatment reduced entry of the vectors into huts, except for marginal reductions due to PermaNet 2.0® nets and DDT. More than 95% of all mosquitoes were caught in exit traps rather than inside huts.ConclusionsWhere the main malaria vector is An. arabiensis, adding IRS into houses with intact pyrethroid LLINs does not enhance house-hold level protection except where the IRS employs non-pyrethroid insecticides such as pirimiphos-methyl, which can confer modest enhancements. In contrast, adding intact bednets onto IRS enhances protection by preventing mosquito blood-feeding (even if the nets are non-insecticidal) and by slightly increasing mosquito mortality (in case of LLINs). The primary mode of action of intact LLINs against An. arabiensis is clearly bite prevention rather than insecticidal activity. Therefore, where resources are limited, priority should be to ensure that everyone at risk consistently uses LLINs and that the nets are regularly replaced before being excessively torn. Measures that maximize bite prevention (e.g. proper net sizes to effectively cover sleeping spaces, stronger net fibres that resist tears and burns and net use practices that preserve net longevity), should be emphasized.

Do topical repellents divert mosquitoes within a community? : Health equity implications of topical repellents as a mosquito bite prevention tool

Objectives Repellents do not kill mosquitoes - they simply reduce human-vector contact. Thus it is possible that individuals who do not use repellents but dwell close to repellent users experience more bites than otherwise. The objective of this study was to measure if diversion occurs from households that use repellents to those that do not use repellents. Methods The study was performed in three Tanzanian villages using 15%-DEET and placebo lotions. All households were given LLINs. Three coverage scenarios were investigated: complete coverage (all households were given 15%-DEET), incomplete coverage (80% of households were given 15%-DEET and 20% placebo) and no coverage (all households were given placebo). A crossover study design was used and coverage scenarios were rotated weekly over a period of ten weeks. The placebo lotion was randomly allocated to households in the incomplete coverage scenario. The level of compliance was reported to be close to 100%. Mosquito densities were measured through aspiration of resting mosquitoes. Data were analysed using negative binomial regression models. Findings Repellent-users had consistently fewer mosquitoes in their dwellings. In villages where everybody had been given 15%-DEET, resting mosquito densities were fewer than half that of households in the no coverage scenario (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]=0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-0.60); p<0.001). Placebo-users living in a village where 80% of the households used 15%-DEET were likely to have over four-times more mosquitoes (IRR=4.17; 95% CI: 3.08-5.65; p<0.001) resting in their dwellings in comparison to households in a village where nobody uses repellent. Conclusions There is evidence that high coverage of repellent use could significantly reduce man-vector contact but with incomplete coverage evidence suggests that mosquitoes are diverted from households that use repellent to those that do not. Therefore, if repellents are to be considered for vector control, strategies to maximise coverage are required.

Covariate adjustment increased power in randomized controlled trials: an example in traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVE We aimed to determine to what extent covariate adjustment could affect power in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a heterogeneous population with traumatic brain injury (TBI). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We analyzed 14-day mortality in 9,497 participants in the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) RCT of corticosteroid vs. placebo. Adjustment was made using logistic regression for baseline covariates of two validated risk models derived from external data (International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury [IMPACT]) and from the CRASH data. The relative sample size (RESS) measure, defined as the ratio of the sample size required by an adjusted analysis to attain the same power as the unadjusted reference analysis, was used to assess the impact of adjustment. RESULTS Corticosteroid was associated with higher mortality compared with placebo (odds ratio=1.25, 95% confidence interval=1.13-1.39). RESS of 0.79 and 0.73 were obtained by adjustment using the IMPACT and CRASH models, respectively, which, for example, implies an increase from 80% to 88% and 91% power, respectively. CONCLUSION Moderate gains in power may be obtained using covariate adjustment from logistic regression in heterogeneous conditions such as TBI. Although analyses of RCTs might consider covariate adjustment to improve power, we caution against this approach in the planning of RCTs.

The effect of antidepressant treatment on HIV and depression outcomes: results from a randomized trial.

Background:Depression is a major barrier to HIV treatment outcomes. Objective:To test whether antidepressant management decision support integrated into HIV care improves antiretroviral adherence and depression morbidity. Design:Pseudo-cluster randomized trial. Setting:Four US infectious diseases clinics. Participants:HIV-infected adults with major depressive disorder. Intervention:Measurement-based care (MBC) – depression care managers used systematic metrics to give HIV primary-care clinicians standardized antidepressant treatment recommendations. Measurements:Primary – antiretroviral medication adherence (monthly unannounced telephone-based pill counts for 12 months). Primary time-point – 6 months. Secondary – depressive severity, depression remission, depression-free days, measured quarterly for 12 months. Results:From 2010 to 2013, 149 participants were randomized to intervention and 155 to usual care. Participants were mostly men, Black, non-Hispanic, unemployed, and virally suppressed with high baseline self-reported antiretroviral adherence and depressive severity. Over follow-up, no differences between arms in antiretroviral adherence or other HIV outcomes were apparent. At 6 months, depressive severity was lower among intervention participants than usual care [mean difference −3.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) −5.6, −1.7], probability of depression remission was higher [risk difference 13%, 95% CI 1%, 25%), and suicidal ideation was lower (risk difference −18%, 95% CI −30%, −6%). By 12 months, the arms had comparable mental health outcomes. Intervention arm participants experienced an average of 29 (95% CI: 1–57) more depression-free days over 12 months. Conclusion:In the largest trial of its kind among HIV-infected adults, MBC did not improve HIV outcomes, possibly because of high baseline adherence, but achieved clinically significant depression improvements and increased depression-free days. MBC may be an effective, resource-efficient approach to reducing depression morbidity among HIV patients.

Predictors of Stroke, Myocardial Infarction or Death within 30 Days of Carotid Artery Stenting: Results from the International Carotid Stenting Study.

Objectives Stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and death are complications of carotid artery stenting (CAS). The effect of baseline patient demographic factors, processes of care, and technical factors during CAS on the risk of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) were investigated. Methods In ICSS, suitable patients with recently symptomatic carotid stenosis > 50% were randomly allocated to CAS or endarterectomy. Factors influencing the risk of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS were examined in a regression model for the 828 patients randomized to CAS in whom the procedure was initiated. Results Of the patients, 7.4% suffered stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS. Independent predictors of risk were age (risk ratio [RR] 1.17 per 5 years of age, 95% CI 1.01–1.37), a right-sided procedure (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32–0.91), aspirin and clopidogrel in combination prior to CAS (compared with any other antiplatelet regimen, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36–0.98), smoking status, and the severity of index event. In patients in whom a stent was deployed, use of an open-cell stent conferred higher risk than use of a closed-cell stent (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.11–3.33). Cerebral protection device (CPD) use did not modify the risk. Conclusions Selection of patients for CAS should take into account symptoms, age, and side of the procedure. The results favour the use of closed-cell stents. CPDs in ICSS did not protect against stroke.

Plasmodium falciparum, anaemia and cognitive and educational performance among school children in an area of moderate malaria transmission: Baseline results of a cluster randomized trial on the coast of Kenya:

Objectives  Studies have typically investigated health and educational consequences of malaria among school‐aged children in areas of high malaria transmission, but few have investigated these issues in moderate transmission settings. This study investigates the patterns of and risks for Plasmodium falciparum and anaemia and their association with cognitive and education outcomes on the Kenyan coast, an area of moderate malaria transmission.

The Epidemiology of Chronic Kidney Disease in Northern Tanzania: A Population-Based Survey

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, kidney failure has a high morbidity and mortality. Despite this, population-based estimates of prevalence, potential etiologies, and awareness are not available. Methods Between January and June 2014, we conducted a household survey of randomly-selected adults in Northern Tanzania. To estimate prevalence we screened for CKD, which was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73m2 and/or persistent albuminuria. We also screened for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and lifestyle practices including alcohol, tobacco, and traditional medicine use. Awareness was defined as a self-reported disease history and subsequently testing positive. We used population-based age- and gender-weights in estimating prevalence, and we used generalized linear models to explore potential risk factors associated with CKD, including living in an urban environment. Results We enrolled 481 adults from 346 households with a median age of 45 years. The community-based prevalence of CKD was 7.0% (95% CI 3.8-12.3), and awareness was low at 10.5% (4.7-22.0). The urban prevalence of CKD was 15.2% (9.6-23.3) while the rural prevalence was 2.0% (0.5-6.9). Half of the cases of CKD (49.1%) were not associated with any of the measured risk factors of hypertension, diabetes, or HIV. Living in an urban environment had the strongest crude (5.40; 95% CI 2.05-14.2) and adjusted prevalence risk ratio (4.80; 1.70-13.6) for CKD, and the majority (79%) of this increased risk was not explained by demographics, traditional medicine use, socioeconomic status, or co-morbid non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Conclusions We observed a high burden of CKD in Northern Tanzania that was associated with low awareness. Although demographic, lifestyle practices including traditional medicine use, socioeconomic factors, and NCDs accounted for some of the excess CKD risk observed with urban residence, much of the increased urban prevalence remained unexplained and will further study as demographic shifts reshape sub-Saharan Africa.

Repellent Plants Provide Affordable Natural Screening to Prevent Mosquito House Entry in Tropical Rural Settings—Results from a Pilot Efficacy Study

Sustained malaria control is underway using a combination of vector control, prompt diagnosis and treatment of malaria cases. Progress is excellent, but for long-term control, low-cost, sustainable tools that supplement existing control programs are needed. Conventional vector control tools such as indoor residual spraying and house screening are highly effective, but difficult to deliver in rural areas. Therefore, an additional means of reducing mosquito house entry was evaluated: the screening of mosquito house entry points by planting the tall and densely foliated repellent plant Lantana camara L. around houses. A pilot efficacy study was performed in Kagera Region, Tanzania in an area of high seasonal malaria transmission, where consenting families within the study village planted L. camara (Lantana) around their homes and were responsible for maintaining the plants. Questionnaire data on house design, socioeconomic status, malaria prevention knowledge, attitude and practices was collected from 231 houses with Lantana planted around them 90 houses without repellent plants. Mosquitoes were collected using CDC Light Traps between September 2008 and July 2009. Data were analysed with generalised negative binomial regression, controlling for the effect of sampling period. Indoor catches of mosquitoes in houses with Lantana were compared using the Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) relative to houses without plants in an adjusted analysis. There were 56% fewer Anopheles gambiae s.s. (IRR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28–0.68, p<0.0001); 83% fewer Anopheles funestus s.s. (IRR 0.17, 95% CI 0.09–0.32, p<0.0001), and 50% fewer mosquitoes of any kind (IRR 0.50, 95% CI 0.38–0.67, p<0.0001) in houses with Lantana relative to controls. House screening using Lantana reduced indoor densities of malaria vectors and nuisance mosquitoes with broad community acceptance. Providing sufficient plants for one home costs US